SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[southerngale]

We're getting clobbered again tonight with strong thunderstorms. Very heavy rainfall with lots of thunder & lightning. I think we're officially saturated!

My brother called the NWS to report hail, approx. dime-sized. They were surprised and said it was the first report of hail tonight. A few minutes later, this Special Weather Statement showed up on my NWS page.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
941 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

LAZ041-TXZ181-182-201-215-216-150545-
CALCASIEU-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...JASPER...NEWTON...
LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
941 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM WEST OF SOUR LAKE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTH OF SULPHUR IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS
LINE IS MOVING EAST AROUND 25 MPH AND WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
STORMS THIS EVENING ARE FOCUSING ALONG A ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

[southerngale]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
LAC023-TXC245-150445-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0014.090215T0406Z-090215T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1006 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...SABINE PASS...PORT ARTHUR...
WEST CENTRAL CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES JOHNSON BAYOU...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CST

* AT 1005 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR...OR ABOUT 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAMSHIRE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SABINE PASS AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF PORT ARTHUR BY 1030 PM CST...

LAT...LON 2986 9424 2992 9387 2983 9394 2979 9394
2978 9390 2981 9391 2982 9390 2985 9380
2994 9377 2996 9365 2977 9362 2976 9373
2971 9384 2968 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0405Z 262DEG 25KT 2978 9412

$$

K. KUYPER

[vbhoutex]

Please don't shoot the messenger, but radar indicates your 70% is on the way. Pretty solid rain shield from Houston East towards you with a lot of it actually to your SW and moving ENE. I'll cross everything too that it is just virga on the radar or at least light enough that it won't matter. Meanwhile in Houston we keep praying for more since we need it badly.

We ended the day with a thunderstorm and a heavy downpour. Over the last few days we have managed about 1.25" of rain here at the house and it has been very welcome. CM I hope y'all get your parade in tonight!!!

[Jagno]

I'm in Lake Charles and so far I've watched the lightening to our west and north but just light rain here. I'm thankful since our vehicles have no cover. As a matter of fact the new garage is almost finished being blacked in and they are lifting the beams on top in the morning. I'm keeping my fingers and toes crossed. LOL

[southerngale]

There are some flooded yards down the street from my house. It was really close to the houses. I'm sure they were sweating bullets. That part of the street is clearly lower than where my house is because it's not like that here. Lots of standing water and the ditches are full, though. Most of the rain finally ended a little while ago.... still some scattered showers. Radar estimates 3-5" just tonight, on top of I don't know how much overnight last night (likely several inches) and some on and off today. Slight rain chances again Mon. - Wed. - it looks like the wet pattern has returned and if anyone still needs rain, I'm sure they'll be getting it soon enough.

While watching radar tonight, it looked like the bulk of the rain went north and south of Lafayette, sparing them intentionally. lol
I hope that's right and it didn't rain on Frick's parade!

[CajunMama]

Please don't shoot the messenger, but radar indicates your 70% is on the way. Pretty solid rain shield from Houston East towards you with a lot of it actually to your SW and moving ENE. I'll cross everything too that it is just virga on the radar or at least light enough that it won't matter. Meanwhile in Houston we keep praying for more since we need it badly.

We ended the day with a thunderstorm and a heavy downpour. Over the last few days we have managed about 1.25" of rain here at the house and it has been very welcome. CM I hope y'all get your parade in tonight!!!

We got soooooo lucky. It rained a little bit before the parade but shortly before we rolled it quit raining. The crowds were amazing for the cruddy weather. I can't imagine what they would have been if it had been a sunny, dry day. The rain held off until midnight.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Too bad HOU doesn't have its own sounding. CRP has a cap of forged steel, LCH has a cool and stable surface layer, but a weaker cap above.






I'm guessing showers under the cap, but no significant rain. WRF shows the cap trying to break tomorrow with the front in South Louisiana, but even there, not showing a soaker...

[JenBayles]

"A cap of forged steel..." I like that! It's how I picture the Bear Creek Dome that forces even the strongest derecho to break up just as it reaches my house.

I see the ash trees leafing out, the mountain laurels budding, and my roses never went dormant this year, so I'm done with winter. We usually call it done once the Houston rodeo trailrides are completed. Seems like the nastiest, coldest, windy and wet weather hits while they're on the trail to Houston.

[CajunMama]

another rainy parade night. Shortly before the parade started the rain came down. But that's ok, it meant alot of people stayed home and i could catch more beads!

[southerngale]

You were catching beads in the rain? I was out all day and got caught in a store without my umbrella... oops. Oh well, sometimes it's fun to just run and splash in the puddles.

[jasons2k]

I think there is a good chance we are having an early spring and we're done with freezes for this winter season.

If it holds, our last official freeze was recorded on January 29th, over a full month before the average last freeze date!

[jinftl]

Getting to the time of year where maps like this are interesting to take a look at...'average' last date for a freeze. The map really shows just what a variety of climate types can be found across the state.



http://agrilifeblogs.tamu.edu/mt/ecgdallas/education/

[jasons2k]

I'd take that map with a grain of salt. The same map is on the "official" A&M State Climatologist's page, but I don't know how it was created.

It has Houston Hobby in the March 1st zone and Brenham in the Feb 14th zone, when in reality, the reverse is closer to the actual dates.

There are numerous other errors I see with it but it would be an incredibly long post. It's simply not a very accurate representation in my opinion.

[southerngale]

I agree, Jason. It shows Orange County, and others near the coast, as March 16, but just south of Dallas as March 1st. Huh?

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Air mass will continue to moisten as western US trough begins to push into the plains this weekend resulting in SW flow aloft over Texas and southerly flow at the surface.

Southeast winds over the past 36 hours have finally been able to moisten the low levels. GOES sounder shows 1.0+ inch PWS values over the southern Gulf of Mexico now streaming northward toward the Texas coast. Low level jet of 30-35kts is cranking about 2,000 ft off the ground and given a look out the window at mainly clear skies…breezy conditions will be had today as solar mixing brings some of this wind to the surface.

Finally it appears the stubborn upper ridge that has built over Texas the last several weeks may break down just enough to allow at least some opportunity for rain chance starting this weekend and continuing into next week. Western US trough will eject a piece of energy into the plains Saturday sending a cold front down the plains and into Texas. Front will fight against unfavorable upper level flow to push southward and there is general agreement that it will stall over our northern areas Saturday night into Sunday. Forecast sounding show a weaker capping inversion in place this go around compare to past events and more instability at the surface. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along the frontal boundary and affect at least our northern counties mainly north of a College Station to Huntsville line on Sunday. Meso-scale influences such as an outflow boundary may help drag some of this activity deeper into our area…especially since the upper flow is parallel to the main frontal slope and it will remain stalled to our north. We will take what we can get!

The front lifts back northward on Monday with southerly flow remaining in place across the region. Zonal flow aloft supports a dryline feature across central Texas Monday and Tuesday with some energy aloft. Profiles are not jumping off the page favorable for dryline convection along the I-35 corridor, but they are also not completely negative….so once again there is some hope that this feature combined with the Gulf moisture could produce a few afternoon storms across central Texas and our western counties where rainfall is badly needed. If it is on the dryline in spring in Texas it as some chance of being severe…so early next week could bring some severe weather.

Long Range:

Bigger changes look possible by the middle of next week as a very cold polar air mass drops out of Canada and down the plains. Current temps. in NW Canada are in the -15 to -25 range and some of this air looks to break loose and head southward. Will go with a strong polar/arctic frontal passage around Wednesday or Thursday of next week with our current warm spell coming to an abrupt end. Of more importance is the ECMWF showing the shallow cold air mass being overrun by good amounts of moisture in the mid level supporting a significant overrunning rainfall event. We have yet to see such an event this winter that has actually produced good rains…so my confidence in such a pattern is not very high at the moment and even lower given the fact it is over a week away.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Yea, I saw Jeff's take on the rain threat for next week.

I almost feel like Portastorm with Lucy and the football.

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Rain chances on the increase this weekend into next week.

Will see another warm and very windy day across the region as southerly flow increases ahead of deepening low pressure over NW TX. Given clear skies this morning and 35-40kt low level jet off the deck expect some decent momentum transfer toward the surface by mid to late morning through much of the afternoon. Could easily see gust over 30mph.

Large upper level trough over the western US will translate into the central US this weekend with the upper ridge over TX being pushed eastward allowing deeper moisture to return and cooling mid level temps. Saturday will be a carbon copy of today with a few more clouds and a little more wind. Feel that by Sunday rain chances will be needed as a cold front approaches the region from the north. While shear profiles look favorable the degree of instability is limited so while a few storms may be strong no severe weather is expected at this time. Capping increases toward the south and southwest so the best rain chances on Sunday will be north of I-10. For now 40-50% chances look good north of a College Station to Conroe to Liberty line with chances less than 20% around Matagorda Bay.

Stronger front looks to arrive around the middle of next week with good moisture profiles in place. Shallow air mass will be overrun by noisy SW flow aloft producing what appears to be a decent shot at wetting rains across much of the area. Will still not get excited given the ongoing drought and failure of such systems this winter season to produce much rainfall in such a pattern. Feel the best course of action is to play wait and see if the models continue to advertise a wet pattern and then bite early next week. We could see some 1-2 inch amounts next Wed-Thurs if things pan out….and we really need such rains. Fairly cold air will also drop down the plains behind the mid week front and this will likely drop highs to below normal…may see highs only in the 50’s on Thursday.

[srainhoutx]

Looks as if some big changes are headed our way from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. A late season push of "colder" Artic Air will make it's way S and stall near the Coast. Over running rain situation will then set up and models continue with a Coastal Low developing SW of our area and riding up the Coast and strengthening along the Artic Boundry this coming weekend. All in all this looks like the best chance of rain that our area has had in sometime and the "cooler temps" will bring to an end of our Spring like weather. I would not be surprised to see temps hover in the mid to low 50's and night time temps in the 40's by Thursday through Sunday that will be a bit of a shock to the old system with recent temps in the 80's.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner:

Significant pattern changes pointing toward much colder temperatures and good chances for much needed rainfall along with potential coastal flooding.

More of the same today through Wednesday with warm and moist southerly flow in place. Winds will kick up again this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens with low pressure to our west.

Big change in the weather begins late Wednesday as strong western US trough shifts into the plains allowing a strong polar cold front to drop into Texas. Will see the front move through SE TX early Thursday between midnight and 600am. Shallow cold dome will push off the coast and entrench while strong SW flow aloft overruns the cold dome with copious amounts of moisture. 850mb front looks to stall across out northern counties Thursday midday and this is where the heaviest rains look to focus.

Strong isentropic ascent pattern will be maintained through Friday as with passing disturbances aloft increasing the lift from time to time. Will see good rain chances Thursday afternoon N of I-10 and then again Friday afternoon with a break in between. Surface temperatures will be cold through the period as NE winds, clouds, and rainfall keep highs in the 50’s and lows in the 40’s. May even need to go lower on highs depending on how dense the cloud cover and widespread the rainfall. Still not totally sold on the rains…as systems that have looked similar this winter have not produced much…however I cannot deny the consistent model runs for the past several days showing this wet pattern.

Weekend:

Messy event shaping up Friday through Sunday as models point toward strong coastal system developing over the NW Gulf along stalled polar boundary in conjunction with ejecting SW US upper level energy. Expect a coastal trough to form late Friday along the lower coast growing into a closed surface low off the middle coastal early Saturday. Tremendous lift will develop north of this feature as warm southerly flow is pushed up and over the cold dome at the surface. Expect widespread rains especially along the coast Friday into early Sunday as coastal system lifts along the coast. Surface warm front will advance northward on Saturday and may reach into the first coastal tier counties in which a severe weather threat may be possible. Too soon to tell given we are still several days out.

Surface low really deepens according to the ECMWF as it heads for the mouth of the Mississippi and we could see some decent coastal winds out of the ENE and NE upwards of 30mph or greater. Fetch and duration of NE wind will support a water level rise along the coast as this wind direction is ideal for water transport toward the shore along with building NW Gulf swells. Expect to see tides start running above normal Friday and peak sometimes late Saturday. Given coastal dune and beach erosion by Ike water levels only slightly above normal may cause some problems.

QPF:

Will favor the northern areas for the highest rain chances and amounts through noon Friday and then spread to all of the area Friday afternoon. Locations along the 850mb front will likely see a good 1-2 inches through Friday. For the weekend will shift the heaviest QPF southward toward the coast closest to the track of the surface low. Will need to keep a very close eye on Gulf convection and make sure it does not rob moisture for inland rains…we could see a big explosion of Gulf storms which would limit inland rain chances. For now will show .5-1.5 inches along and S of I-10 for Friday afternoon into early Sunday. Some locations may see isolated amounts of 3-4 inches by Sunday. Keeping all fingers crossed that such amounts will actually verify given the ongoing drought conditions.

[srainhoutx]

HGX thoughts this afteroon in AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE MOIST AT THE LOWER LAYERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. COLD FRONT AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES EVENING HOURS... AND SHOULD MOVE
GRADUALLY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE STRONG BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH VERY MOIST AND
RELATIVELY WARMER LAYER ON TOP OF COLD SHALLOW AIR MASS. A SERIES
OF IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH MONDAY. MODELS HOWEVER INDICATE
THAT IT SHOULD START DRYING OVER REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 3 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHILE 1/2 INCH TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. TIME CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE STRONG LIFT AT AND JUST BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATE WEDNESDAY ...AND A PRONOUNCED LIFT WITH PWS INCREASING TO
1.45 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING (IF GFS IS CORRECT). TEMPERATURES DROP
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 40S WED NIGHT THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS AND SHOULD
BRING RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 37

Here's hoping for some rain.