NWS assessment released on Super Tuesday outbreak

[CrazyC83]

It's worth a read. The big stuff is on why people don't listen to warnings - that played a big role in it being the deadliest outbreak in 23 years.

http://www.weather.gov/os/assessments/p ... uesday.pdf

[CrazyC83]

My opinion on each recommendation:

1) Agreed, although it can sometime be difficult to determine. In that outbreak, strong wording was necessary on many warnings. However, overuse can create a "cry wolf" factor.

2) Agreed for sure, confusing language can create a factor of inaction. Also they did not mention that there were 2 more tornado emergencies issued by Memphis downstream of Jackson. The words "tornado emergency" should be used sparingly though.

3) Co-ordination is critical since tornadoes do not follow political boundaries.

4a) That is beyond the NWS's control, but should be encouraged.

4b) Agreed, even though the cost may be significant.

5) Agreed, they need at least 10-15 minutes lead time for clear and dangerous tornadoes that are obvious.

6) Standardization on a national basis is probably best.

7a) Definitely needs to be a year-round effort! There is no tornado season!

7b) Fall efforts are very beneficial in all states that can be hit by tornadoes (look at October 18, 2007 for instance), and drills and tests should be done in September with schools as well.

8a-e) That's for us to get the message to!

[Shockwave]

The one that most public disagree with and even some weather fanatics is about the watch duration and size. I agree with the SPC's thinking with not making any changes to the watching process.

And speaking of school systems...I always, ALWAYS disagree with the school systems that dismiss early for bad weather days. A school building is one of the more sturdier structures you could be in when a tornado hits. Secondly, You could also be sending the kids home with no parental care and many of us teenagers could care a less about the weather. And thirdly, this goes back to the school building structure, many homes don't have a storm shelter or a basement in my county, so if you were to send us kids home early...we would be in a way less sturdy structure then a school building and under possibly our own care.

[CrazyC83]

The one that most public disagree with and even some weather fanatics is about the watch duration and size. I agree with the SPC's thinking with not making any changes to the watching process.

And speaking of school systems...I always, ALWAYS disagree with the school systems that dismiss early for bad weather days. A school building is one of the more sturdier structures you could be in when a tornado hits. Secondly, You could also be sending the kids home with no parental care and many of us teenagers could care a less about the weather. And thirdly, this goes back to the school building structure, many homes don't have a storm shelter or a basement in my county, so if you were to send us kids home early...we would be in a way less sturdy structure then a school building and under possibly our own care.

I agree with the school thought. That might have been an over-reaction from what happened in Enterprise, AL in 2007 (which BTW was the first killer tornado at a school in over 16 years). Having the school buses on the road with tornadoes coming is the most dangerous thing possible. And if they are at home, surely some will be safe, but many (especially high school age) will not know what to do and will be there alone - and those in mobile homes or weaker structures would be in extreme danger no matter what. Having a bunch of teens in a mobile home with a major tornado coming is surely a recipe for disaster most of the time. Also getting back in touch with parents or caregivers would be extremely difficult, especially in a dangerous weather situation.

The service assessment from the March 1, 2007 tornado outbreak mentioned that schools (and other heavily-used buildings such as offices and shopping centers) should have hardened safe rooms (with reinforced concrete) capable of withstanding strong to violent tornadoes much easier, since normal construction doesn't stand a chance in an EF4 or EF5 tornado.

As for the watches, I also agree that long-duration, large watch boxes are sometimes useful, particularly for major tornado outbreaks when longer lead time is often desirable for PDS watches (unless it is a sudden upgrade due to worse than expected conditions). Having it for a large area keeps things consistent for an entire media area or NOAA radio area. Sometimes though, the threat area changes or there is uncertainty and smaller boxes may be better.

[RL3AO]

On topic number three with two diffent CWA's needing to issue two different warnings for the same cell because of borders.

Just had an example between the Norman CWA and Wichita CWA (the green lines are the CWA borders).



Wichita had to issue that small triangular shaped SVR and Norman issued the larger SVR to the south. IMO, Norman should be able to just issue one warning and include the small area of Wichita's CWA (with the permission of Wichita's WFO of course). There is no reason why two separate warnings need to be issued here.

[srainhoutx]

If I recall A Particularly Dangerous was issued by SPC. Correct me if I'm wrong. The models were screaming severe weather although worse for others.

[CrazyC83]

If I recall A Particularly Dangerous was issued by SPC. Correct me if I'm wrong. The models were screaming severe weather although worse for others.

Yes there were 2 of them issued (and verified quite well) that day. Other watches would have verified if they were PDS as well but the models were split in other areas.

In high-risk situations, such watches should come out with longer lead times to allow for better preparations. When there is a high risk of severe weather, I would aim for about 2 hours lead time for the PDS tornado watches before the first severe cells develop (much more than normal). Normal watches on the fringes of the threat area in the slight risk areas would not need as much lead time.

[Squarethecircle]

And speaking of school systems...I always, ALWAYS disagree with the school systems that dismiss early for bad weather days. A school building is one of the more sturdier structures you could be in when a tornado hits. Secondly, You could also be sending the kids home with no parental care and many of us teenagers could care a less about the weather. And thirdly, this goes back to the school building structure, many homes don't have a storm shelter or a basement in my county, so if you were to send us kids home early...we would be in a way less sturdy structure then a school building and under possibly our own care.

Around here we never let out early for storms. They won't let us out of school if we're under a TOR, which is kind of annoying, but I suppose for the best. If it's urgent, we have to go out into the halls and brace.

[CrazyC83]

Watches issued in the Super Tuesday outbreak (times in UTC):

Dark Red - PDS Tornado Watch
Red - Tornado Watch
Blue - Severe Thunderstorm Watch

34 (1800) - 1 tornado (0 strong/violent)
35 (1840) - 1 tornado (1 strong), 1 death
36 (2010) - 8 tornadoes (1 violent), 13 deaths
37 (2110) - 30 tornadoes (8 strong, 2 violent), 12 deaths
38 (2200) - 0 tornadoes
39 (0110) - 18 tornadoes (6 strong), 4 deaths
40 (0120) - 11 tornadoes (4 strong), 22 deaths
41 (0400) - 9 tornadoes (1 strong, 2 violent), 5 deaths
42 (0540) - 2 tornadoes (0 strong/violent)
43 (0600) - 3 tornadoes (0 strong/violent)
44 (0725) - 0 tornadoes
45 (0730) - 0 tornadoes
46 (0905) - 1 tornado (1 strong)
47 (1005) - 0 tornadoes
48 (1305) - 0 tornadoes
3 tornadoes (all weak) were not covered by watch boxes.

[JonathanBelles]

yea, here for TOR warnings, they keep all kids inside or in the tornado areas of the school until the warning is canceled. One of the few weather and student rules that are actually in place. My college has little to no bad weather code. There were 60mph winds and a severe t-storm warning in place one day last semester, and people running everywhere, with no warning from the college. Since then a text message was planned, but is not used (if it even works) very much. I find myself looking at the Pinellas County school system to decide whether or not to go to school during a hurricane situation. All schools in this area need a weather upgrade.

[CrazyC83]

yea, here for TOR warnings, they keep all kids inside or in the tornado areas of the school until the warning is canceled. One of the few weather and student rules that are actually in place. My college has little to no bad weather code. There were 60mph winds and a severe t-storm warning in place one day last semester, and people running everywhere, with no warning from the college. Since then a text message was planned, but is not used (if it even works) very much. I find myself looking at the Pinellas County school system to decide whether or not to go to school during a hurricane situation. All schools in this area need a weather upgrade.

They should have made the decision long before the hurricane arrives in those situation.

Back to severe weather, here too they will not slow or stop the buses or dismissals for nothing. I remember there was a tornado warning a few years back and kids were walking and riding buses home. Luckily it didn't touch down.