SIO: 91S Invest

[wyq614]

JTWC Initial position: 9.2S 95.6E

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WDT on Thursday the 12th of March 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A tropical low, located west of the region near 20S 085E, is forecast to move
slowly southwest and is not expected to affect areas east of 90E.

A second tropical low near 10S 096E is expected to drift slowly west over the
next three days and may develop into a tropical cyclone near 090E on Sunday or
Monday.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the next three days is:
Friday : Low
Saturday : Low
Sunday : Moderate

What's more, the development of this system is also supported by ECMWF forecast.

I'm interested in whether this system will get two names from two different RSMCs.

[KWT]

There is pretty much nothing there at the moment in terms of circulation, still if it does have model support may need watching in the future.

[wyq614]

EC drops its support about this system...

Australian TWO suddenly stopped mentioning this system, is it because they think it has moved to the area north of 10S?

[Tampa_God]

I don't know, the system has refired some convection with it and looks like it is trying to get more life. I would put the chances of this system at about 70% now.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 91.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 88.9E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A MORE DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 151159Z SSMI/S 37 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 151218Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT STRONGER LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa_God]

Doesn't know what to do, burst on convection and than poof, barely anything. Actually have more on my eye with something just off Madagascar.

[HURAKAN]

Not very impressive at the moment.