SIO: ILSA - ex-Tropical Cyclone (22S)

[Chacor]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 pm CST Friday 13 March 2009

A weak TROPICAL LOW 1006 hPa is situated in the ARAFURA SEA. At 11am it was near
latitude 9S, longitude 136E, about 300 km north of Nhulunbuy. The LOW should
move slowly westwards over the weekend, with little development expected in the
next three days.

The likelihood of a Tropical Cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Saturday: low
Sunday: low
Monday: low


NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[wyq614]

The ECWMF suggests that a low start to develop at tau 96 just to the southwest of the Timor Islands while continuing moving west and reach Australian-styled Cat.3-Cat.4 at tau 240.

Despite its current Low probability it is worth monitoring and, moreover, Ellie and Hamish taught us that Australian daily TWO is not as reliable as we thought.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:22pm WDT on Monday the 16th of March 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A slow moving tropical low lies near 10S 088E [west of the forecast area] and is
expected to remain west of 090E during the outlook period.

A weak low in the vicinity of 10S 125E is expected to move to the west southwest
and move west of 110E by late Thursday. The low is not expected to develop
significantly in the next two days but conditions are likely to become more
favourable for development by Thursday. At this stage it is not likely to impact
Christmas or Cocos Islands as it expected to pass to the south.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Tuesday : Low
Wednesday: Low
Thursday : Moderate

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.1S 121.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CONSOLIDATING TO THE SURFACE WITH WEAK AND LIMITED FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. A 162159Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE CENTER AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. THE
LLCC IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. BECAUSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING AND QUICKLY DISSIPATING IN
THE VICINITY THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 110E-125E
2:00 PM WDT March 17 2009
=====================================
A tropical low in the vicinity of 12S 119E, well to the north of the mainland, is expected to move steadily to the west southwest over the next few days. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday prior to moving out of the region [west of 110E] overnight Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low

(Chances increases to HIGH west of 110E.)

[a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW10900.txt"]Central Indian Ocean TWO[/a]

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0649UTC 17 MARCH 2009

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal one south (12.1S)
longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal five east (118.5E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 15 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1006 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 36
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre in southern quadrants.

FORECAST
NE/SE winds increasing 25/35 knots in southern quadrants by 0600 UTC 18 March
with rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 17 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 12.7 south 115.7 east
Central pressure 1004 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots.
At 0600 UTC 18 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 13.4 south 112.8 east
Central pressure 1002 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 17 March 2009.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:04pm WDT on Tuesday the 17th of March 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A slow moving tropical low lies near 10S 086E [west of the forecast area] and is
expected to remain west of 090E during the outlook period.

A low in the vicinity of 12S 120E is expected to be west of 110E by Thursday.
The low is expected to develop and may reach cyclone intensity on Thursday or
Friday. At this stage it is not likely to impact Christmas or Cocos Islands as
it expected to pass to the south.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Wednesday: Low
Thursday : High
Friday : High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Needs to hold convection for longer then it has been doing recently but I think it may have a chance within the next 48hrs.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat1.html

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1308 UTC 17/03/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.8S
Longitude: 116.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [251 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/0000: 13.5S 113.9E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 1000
+24: 18/1200: 14.2S 111.2E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 997
+36: 19/0000: 15.1S 109.1E: 120 [225]: 045 [085]: 994
+48: 19/1200: 15.9S 107.5E: 155 [285]: 050 [095]: 990
+60: 20/0000: 16.2S 106.2E: 200 [375]: 055 [100]: 986
+72: 20/1200: 16.3S 105.0E: 250 [465]: 055 [100]: 986
REMARKS:
The system continues to show signs of development and moving consistantly in a
WSW'ly directing at 15 knots. The system is currently under some E'ly shear but
if the system maintains a WSW'ly track it will move into a slightly lower shear
environment with the potential of further development.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1224UTC 17 MARCH 2009

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal eight south (12.8S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal nine east (116.9E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 15 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 1002 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots increasing to 25/35 knots in southern quadrants by
0000 UTC 18 March with rough seas and moderate swell and then in remaining
quadrants by 1200 UTC 18 March.
Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 18 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 13.5 south 113.9 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots.
At 1200 UTC 18 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 14.2 south 111.2 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 17 March 2009.

WEATHER PERTH

[KWT]

92P is bursting convection pretty well and whilst there is shear as mentioned I think its probably low enough to allow some slow development for now anyway.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
121.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATING TO THE SURFACE
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. A 171224Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND FORMING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A 170155Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN OPEN
TROUGH WITH TIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 172000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 115.5E TO 14.4S 110.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 115.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13.4S 115.5E, APPROXIMATELY
525 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND INTO THE CENTER OF A WELL-
DEFINED CIRCULATION. A 171405Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH AND INTO A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ARE ALSO EVIDENT AROUND THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO
32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS LOWER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182000Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

17/2030 UTC 13.2S 114.2E T2.0/2.0 92P -- Southeast Indian

[KWT]

Looks like 92P isn't far away from being a tropical depression now and given the way its strengthened recently I suspect within the next 12hrs we could have a tropical depression.