Denver LACK OF snow/winter thread

[zephyr99]

RECORD EVENT REPORT...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
447 AM MST WED MAR 04 2009

...3 NEW DENVER RECORDS ESTABLISHED...


...NEW RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH 2...

AT 308 PM THIS AFTERNOON THE TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT REACHED 74 DEGREES SETTING A NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE.
THE OLD RECORD WAS 72 DEGREES SET IN 1901.

CLB

*********************************************************************


...NEW RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR MARCH 3...

THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON MARCH 3
WAS 47 DEGREES SETTING A NEW RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DATE. THE
OLD RECORD WAS 44 DEGREES SET IN 1925.

THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 75 DEGREES ON MARCH 3 WAS THE SECOND
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON THE DATE AND WAS ONE DEGREE SHY
OF THE RECORD 76 DEGREES SET IN 1921. THE PREVIOUS SECOND PLACE
TEMPERATURE WAS 71 DEGREES RECORDED ON 1994.

CLB

-------------I hate the winters here!----------

[zephyr99]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
105 PM MST WED MAR 4 2009

...137 YEAR OLD DENVER HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD BROKEN...

TODAY...MARCH 4TH...AT 1240 PM...THE TEMPERATURE AT THE DENVER
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 76 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE 137 YEAR
OLD RECORD OF 74 DEGREES SET WAY BACK IN 1872. 1872 IS THE YEAR
THAT TEMPERATURE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN FOR DENVER.

THERE IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE STILL AVAILABLE SO THIS NEW
RECORD TEMPERATURE COULD STILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

IF 76 DEGREES IS EXCEEDED...ANOTHER RECORD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

Almost 80 degress in early March! Looking at the long range....I don't see how we'll ever get 1.28" of precip this month. And that is average....we need another inch on top of that just to break even for the year. What is happening to Colorado?

[Scott Patterson]

It is interesting that most of Colorado has above average snowpack.

ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/daily/co_update_snow.pdf

We also had a record high of 60 yesterday (not only a record high but the earliest in the year that it's ever reached 60), but starting tomorrow through Monday there is a chance of snow every day. Looks like it has the potential for a big snowstorm. Most of Colorado isn't lacking in the snow department; it's really only the Eastern Plains and perhaps the lowest elevations on the Western Slopes that are lacking.

[PTPatrick]

I'm very glad to see that most of the states mountain regions have above average snowpack. That is good news for the 85% of coloradans that live down here east of the front range that cant seem to buy a snowflake these days. We will need that water in a couple months. I am a little suprised that so much of the state is above average though given that I haven't heard of any major storms for the mountains in quite a few weeks, not to mention its been pretty warm in some of the resort areas for this time of year. Lets hope the snow pack can stay above average for a couple months. Either way, its dry as a bone out east, and the warm winds we have been having seem to make it feel worse...I definately feel like a raisin. Heres to a slight chance of snow this weekend!

[Scott Patterson]

I am a little suprised that so much of the state is above average though given that I haven't heard of any major storms for the mountains in quite a few weeks, not to mention its been pretty warm in some of the resort areas for this time of year.

February has been dry in most areas, but December and January were quite wet (but warm) in most areas.

There haven't been that many big storms, just a bunch of little ones in the mountains. For example, check out the forecast for the mountains around Steamboat Springs:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.63167229840464&lon=-106.71981811523437&site=gjt&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en

60% chance of snow tomorrow, 100% chance for all of Friday, Friday night and Saturday and and a chance of snow every day for at least the next seven days, which is as far as the noaa forecast goes.

Anyway, this winter has had a mostly westerly and southwesterly flow. That usually means mild temperatures, snow for the mountains (especially west of the divide), and a dry Denver and Eastern Plains.

In 2006-2007 when Denver was having way above normal snowfall (near record) the mountains were really dry and it was a horribly dry year. Upslope winds bring Denver lots of snow, but leave most of the mountains dry. Westerly and Southwesterly winds bring snow for the mountains and Western Slope, but leave the east dry.

It's amazing how different the weather can be from one side of the state to the other! Both sides of the divide have been really mild this winter though.

We'll wish you some snow!

edited by vbhoutex

[SCMedic]

Keeping the fingers crossed for this system working it's way in now.. Monday has a decent shot as well...


We really need this La Nina to roll back to neutral, and let some energy get in without splitting up. Denver needs a big spring snowstorm!

[PTPatrick]

Finally got a bit of snow here in Downtown last night...i stress, "a bit" I had between 1 adn 2 inches when I woke up this AM. Eitherway more than I expected. Friday is looking promising. But sounds like pattern gets ridgy and dry again after than...and per cpc probably for the month.

From todays discussion:
AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER TROUGH
IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IF THE ECMWF IS TO BE TRUSTED. AFTER
THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WHICH WILL
BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A DRY SPELL. LETS HOPE WE GET
SOME BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS.

[SCMedic]

Couple inches up here in Erie too, but it was a nice surprise. Was up in Vail today to ride, and it was outstanding! 10" easy at the base, and a ton more up top!

This Thurs-Fri storm has the making of a classic March storm, we just need a tad more cold air, and we could be talking big snow in Denver!

Funny that the first real winter storm here could fall in March.

[PTPatrick]

Lets just go ahead and call it...DUD. I am over this winter and La Freakin Nina.

Tomorrows storm going too far south to give us anything. Looks like no precip chances coming at least until after the 2 week period, In other words, 2 more weeks for the plains to dry out.

[zephyr99]

I don't think it will rain or snow again the rest of March. 90 day out-look calls for above normal temps and below normal precip. Winter is over. Dry season pretty much never left. March 2009 on track to be driest ever. God help Denver. Gonna be a BAD fire season!

[PTPatrick]

I am not quite ready to invoke devine intervention...but I agree Zephyr, this sucks.

[Dencolo]

I went back and caluclated 18.8" of snow for DIA this season from the montly summaries. This would be a record low if it doesn't snow again. March is looking awful - we'll see what April brings.

[PTPatrick]

I was thinking about that earlier, but I had not had a chance to go find the figures again. Its nuts. We are bound to see some more snow before seasons end. The lowest snow total for a winter season was 1888-89 which came in at 20.8 inches. If we beat that I am just going to keal over. Thats still 10 inches less than the dreadful 2001-2002 winter. And whats worse, is even if April produced and epic storm of 15 inches or something, thats still only 33 inches which is still weak half of normal. I want to believe that the pattern will turn around by the end of March...but lets face it, we have been in this pattern since Christmas week, after the western trough of December shifted east. Since then we have had no real cold snaps(relatively speaking...as I dont consider teens for lows a cold snap in Denver). La Nina is ending but I am guessing the effects will still be felt for a few more months.

[zephyr99]

I guess we could get a day or 2 with a chance for snow. Accuweather 15 days out has a colder day with a chance for snow. Who knows. The bottom line is that there is no real indication of a long term change in this pattern over the next 90 days. It just looks like we're headed into another drought (2008 had about 10" of precip; 6" below avg.) I hope it doesn't last long.

[SCMedic]

The mountains have been good this winter, aside from the stretches of 50 degree weather ruining the snow for a week at a time.. We could use a few more good storms.. I'm not ready to give up the snowboard for the summer yet.

As for down here in Denver, I'm over it. I'm done getting excited reading the discussions and model watching. I hope next winter is EPIC.

[PTPatrick]

Lucy has the football set up for a storm this coming monday...we'll have to wait and see, and I definately aint holding my breath. Either way though the "pattern" on the longer range GFS isnt looking AS ridgy, and even features another ripple of precip in the 7-8 day time frame.

[SCMedic]

The mention of a consistent GFS with a strong system, and the possibility of a "snow storm" and "heavy snow" over the foothills and plains is the most interesting thing I've heard all winter.

Holy crap that'd be fun. We're due.

[PTPatrick]

Well, things ACTUALLY look better with each model run so far and we are now within the 96 hours time frame. Still not going to get too excited, but 18z GFS is by far the best looking model run for snow I have seen all winter for Denver.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

Looks like a good 12-18 hours period of mod to heavy snow from about Monday lunch to Tuesday AM...with lighter amounts falling pre lunch Monday and after lunch Tuesday. Hope the timing stays on track so that the heavyiest precip comes on monday evening. I hate heavy daytime snow in March that doesnt accumulate.

12 Z GFS showed QPF for the storm ranging from 1 1/4 inch near the border of WY to around 3/4 of an inch for Denver...which for a mostly snow event in March would likely end up around 5-10 inches...BUT 18z shifted ever so slightly south and brought a HUGE motherload of QPF from the Denver foothills into the eastern plains with a bullseye of about 2 to 2.5 inches...which would equate to snow amounts of possibly 2 ft west of Denver and a swath of 18+ even down onto the metro area. I WILL BELIEVE IT WHEN I SEE IT...but if it were to happen, it would double our snow total for the season and catch us up quickly. I just really hope this doesnt turn out to be just a teaser in an already dissapointing season.

I am sure snow lovers in Denver were equally dishearted in the the winter of 02-03 as it was absolutely dismal until the March blizzard of 03 that took the season total from around 16 inches to a WHOPPING 51 inches. I would be standing on the rooftop shouting incantations if I thought it would help it snow....but somehow I doubt it would help.

[SCMedic]

I'm with you Patrick.. Don't want to get too excited yet. But as we get closer, the models are fairly in line together, and the track does appear to put us in a very good position for a big March snow. God knows we need it.

[PTPatrick]

I guess I posted too soon....0z now back north again and showing very little precip on the Denver metro. Actually, I suspect GFS will continue to waffle...:-P