Global crisis 'to strike by 2030'

[HURAKAN]

Global crisis 'to strike by 2030'
By Christine McGourty
Science correspondent, BBC News

Growing world population will cause a "perfect storm" of food, energy and water shortages by 2030, the UK government chief scientist has warned.

By 2030 the demand for resources will create a crisis with dire consequences, Prof John Beddington said.

Demand for food and energy will jump 50% by 2030 and for fresh water by 30%, as the population tops 8.3 billion, he told a conference in London.

Climate change will exacerbate matters in unpredictable ways, he added.

'Complacent'

"It's a perfect storm," Prof Beddington told the Sustainable Development UK 09 conference.

"There's not going to be a complete collapse, but things will start getting really worrying if we don't tackle these problems."

Prof Beddington said the looming crisis would match the current one in the banking sector.

"My main concern is what will happen internationally, there will be food and water shortages," he said.

"We're relatively fortunate in the UK; there may not be shortages here, but we can expect prices of food and energy to rise."

The United Nations Environment Programme predicts widespread water shortages across Africa, Europe and Asia by 2025.

The amount of fresh water available per head of the population is expected to decline sharply in that time.

The issue of food and energy security rose high on the political agenda last year during a spike in oil and commodity prices.

Genetically-modified

Prof Beddington said the concern now - when prices have dropped once again - was that the issues would slip back down the domestic and international agenda.

"We can't afford to be complacent. Just because the high prices have dropped doesn't mean we can relax," he said.

Improving agricultural productivity globally was one way to tackle the problem, he added.

At present, 30-40% of all crops are lost due to pest and disease before they are harvested.

Professor Beddington said: "We have to address that. We need more disease-resistant and pest-resistant plants and better practices, better harvesting procedures.

"Genetically-modified food could also be part of the solution. We need plants that are resistant to drought and salinity - a mixture of genetic modification and conventional plant breeding.

Better water storage and cleaner energy supplies are also essential, he added.

Prof Beddington is chairing a subgroup of a new Cabinet Office task force set up to tackle food security.

But he said the problem could not be tackled in isolation.

He wants policy-makers in the European Commission to receive the same high level of scientific advice as the new US president, Barack Obama.

One solution would be to create a new post of chief science adviser to the European Commission, he suggested.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/uk/7951838.stm

[lurkey]

Well, we need not worry about 2030 if the Mayans were right about 2012. . . . so one apocalypse at please. .

sorry, currently suffering from apocalypse fatigue. . .

edited 'cause I was a year of on the Mayan thing. .

[tropicana]

yup, the exact date is dec 21 2012.

Just as "Y2K" and its batch of predictions about the year 2000 have become a distant memory, here comes "Twenty-twelve."
Fueled by a crop of books, Web sites with countdown clocks, and claims about ancient timekeepers, interest is growing in what some see as the dawn of a new era, and others as an expiration date for Earth: December 21, 2012.
The date marks the end of a 5,126-year cycle on the Long Count calendar developed by the Maya, the ancient civilization known for its advanced understanding of astronomy and for the great cities it left behind in Mexico and Central America.
(Some scholars believe the cycle ends a bit later -- on December 23, 2012.)

Speculation in some circles about whether the Maya chose this particular time because they thought something ominous would happen has sparked a number of doomsday theories.
The hype also has mainstream Maya scholars shaking their heads.
There's going to be a whole generation of people who, when they think of the Maya, think of 2012, and to me that's just criminal," said David Stuart, director of the Mesoamerica Center at the University of Texas at Austin.

But take the fact that December 21, 2012, coincides with the winter solstice, add claims the Maya picked the time period because it also marks an alignment of the sun with the center of the Milky Way galaxy, and you have the makings of an online sensation.
Theories about what might happen range from solar storms triggering volcano eruptions to a polar reversal that will make the Earth spin in the opposite direction.

If you think all of this would make a great sci-fi disaster movie, Hollywood is already one step ahead.
"2012," a special-effects flick starring John Cusack and directed by Roland Emmerich, of "The Day After Tomorrow" fame, is scheduled to be released this fall. The trailer shows a monk running to a bell tower on a mountaintop to sound the alarm as a huge wall of water washes over what appear to be the peaks of the Himalayas.

[abajan]

...take the fact that December 21, 2012, coincides with the winter solstice, add claims the Maya picked the time period because it also marks an alignment of the sun with the center of the Milky Way galaxy, and you have the makings of an online sensation.
Theories about what might happen range from solar storms triggering volcano eruptions to a polar reversal that will make the Earth spin in the opposite direction...

"...an alignment of the sun with the center of the Milky Way", eh? Since many scientists now believe there's a black hole at the center of every galaxy, perhaps the Maya figured we'd be drawn into the one at the center of our own.

I don't even want to think of the consequences of the earth reversing rotation!

[southerngale]

Make sure you update this thread when it happens.

[Mathias]

The 2012 theories are all hogwash pseudo-science. Reversal of the poles causing a reversal of the earth's rotation? Impossible. The only conceivable way for the earth to reverse rotation would be to have some large catastrophic celestial impact with a very large Near Earth Object that would likely pulverize the earth, after which a long process of re-accretion of the earth's materials would ensue with a chance that the rotational direction of the earth will have shifted. The reversal of the poles on the other hand is nothing more than a polarity shift of the earth's magnetic field(your compass needle will point south instead of north when the polarity shift is complete). This is a process that takes thousands of years to occur. Right now the Earth's North magnetic pole is centered around Ellesmere Island in Northern Canada, with a continuing (slow) migration southward, predict the scientists. As this polarity shift occurs, the field strength of the earth's magnetic field will weaken, creating a possible situation where earth will be more vulnerable to solar storms called coronal mass ejections (CME's). Since these magnetic polarity reversals have occurred in the past, during the existence of human ancestors, it is highly doubtful that the weakness of the earth's magnetic field would lead to the extinction of humanity, due to the interaction of the solar wind with the earth's atmosphere which will create a magnetic field that is independent of the geological dynamo of the earth's core, which are indicated by simulations carried out by scientists. However, if humanity is still blessed with high technology, it is uncertain what impact a weak magnetic field (even one bolstered by interaction of the solar wind with the atmosphere) that is vulnerable to CME's would have on our electronics, and communications. There is a high degree of uncertainty as to when the next polarity shift will occur, but there is a consensus amongst the scientific community that it will not occur on 2012, that it will, give or take, take 2000 years for the magnetic field to weaken considerably.

[lurkey]

The 2012 theories are all hogwash pseudo-science. . . .

yeah, we know. . . I think the 2030 "crisis" ranks up there with it. . . just tired of everything being an "apocalypse" doomed to end everything. . .

[Mathias]

The 2012 theories are all hogwash pseudo-science. . . .

yeah, we know. . . I think the 2030 "crisis" ranks up there with it. . . just tired of everything being an "apocalypse" doomed to end everything. . .

I'd have to agree with you there. There is too much fire and brimstone going around. However, I do see the overpopulation of the earth coupled with pollution of the earth's water sources as a problem geo-politically if other countries start going after the same pristine water source. If we could just clear the air of all of the pseudo-science inspired apocalypse theories, we could see, with better clarity, what real, down to earth threats lie in store for humanity.

[coriolis]

It seems reasonable that a professor that is addressing a "sustainable development" conference should say that things are unsustainable. Otherwise they'd have no reason to hold a conference.

[Cookiely]

http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:ZS1 ... clnk&gl=us