![Image](http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh2409.gif)
WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTY-FOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 41.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 41.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.4S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.7S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.8S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.8S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 41.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING NEAR AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THIS LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE
CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE HAS INTRODUCED A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
MECHANISM. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK VALUES OF 2.5 AND 2.0
FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. A SHIP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC
ALSO REPORTED 30-KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 232200Z. SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-
TURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE HIGH IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND,
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL ENABLE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. TC 24S IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 231051Z MAR 09
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 231100 ) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z AND 250900Z.