Tropical Cyclone Activity [still] lowest in 30-years

[caneman]

Interesting report. Would seem seem to contradict what man made GW theorists proposed.........
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

[Meso]

Indeed.

While I'm pretty sure global warming exists... In my mind it could still just be a natural occuring cycle of the earth and this can't be disproved cause we simply don't have enough data. Though I wouldn't be surprised if global warming was due to people.

Now the next issue is the "The world will become terrible soon, already hurricanes are so more plentiful and more powerful"... This just isn't confirmable. We only have a tiny amount of records as far as hurricanes go and predicting the future with models is just crazy, 7 day models already struggle.

While I do not disagree that global warming could pose a risk of stronger storms there is just no clear evidence of it yet and people just like to use a few anomolies as evidence for a theory. If we had hurricane history for 4000 years then we could maybe draw out comparisons between earths heating/cooling cycles and tropical activity.

[Sanibel]

Don't forget we've had a record year in 2005. Two category 5 hurricanes in the Caribbean. And a major storm in 5 months last season.


Could it be gw caused extreme swings in range apply to tropical cyclone activity as well?

[Meso]

Except we had a similar season in the 30s.. And that's just within a 100 odd year period.. On a timeline of the earths existence in regards to it's natural heating and cooling cycles over billions of years 100-200 years is a spec of sand regarding hurricanes

[Chacor]

Author uses solely NHC/CPHC and JTWC data. I'd argue that the numbers for non-NHC/CPHC are skewed as he isn't following the official advisories.

[KWT]

Still no escaping the fact that the global ACE is down regardless of what scale you use, maybe not to the same extreme as the author has it shown in that case Chacor but I do understand what you mean.

I suspect as soon as we see some sort of El nino we will get something of a upswing again as the Pacific ocean comes to live again.

[x-y-no]

Interesting report. Would seem seem to contradict what man made GW theorists proposed.........
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

It would be more accurate to say "what some man made GW theorists proposed."

Unlike the basics of global warming theory, the hypothesis that it has or will lead to increased frequency or increased total intensity of tropical systems is a matter of considerable dispute in the climate science community.

[KWT]

Indeed there is a lot of debate about tropical cyclones, seems like there is a cycle with global TC's lookinbg at the graphs, its all very interesting to observe.

I suspect this year will come in with a below average ACE again as the southern hemisphere is quite a bit below average right now and so the N.Hemisphere is going to have to do some catching up in the summer and Autumn.

[HURAKAN]

I think our record of hurricane activity, about 100 years, is too short to make any conclusions that concerns climatology. That's my opinion.