Severe weather outbreak? March 23-24 - Plains/Midwest
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe weather outbreak? March 23-24 - Plains/Midwest
Spooky looking shear from SC Kansas profiler
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe weather outbreak? March 23-24 - Plains/Midwest
No mistaking the dry line, or the generally clear skies ahead of it, now
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? March 23-24 - Plains/Midwest
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
153 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT
* AT 150 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BROWNLEE...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF THEDFORD...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BROWNLEE BY 200 PM CDT...
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
153 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT
* AT 150 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BROWNLEE...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF THEDFORD...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BROWNLEE BY 200 PM CDT...
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Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Re: Severe weather outbreak? March 23-24 - Plains/Midwest
Sunshine is starting to appear here in OKC. Dewpoints and surface temperatures are increasing as well.
http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mes ... 1237836820
http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mes ... 1237836855
http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mes ... 1237836820
http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mes ... 1237836855
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Squarethecircle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
That is quite the good looking storm.-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe weather outbreak? March 23-24 - Plains/Midwest
SPC AC 231940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
VALID 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL/ERN KS....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID/LWR MO VALLEY....
...PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY...
THE EXIT REGION OF THE STRONG POLAR JET STREAK IS ALREADY SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH AN INITIAL
IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRY LINE...WHICH ARCS SOUTH OF A THE DEEP SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKING THE DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS OCCURS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...AND PRIMARILY AFFECTS THE TRANSITION FROM A MORE
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE TO A SOLIDIFYING SQUALL LINE. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MOST
PROMINENT...IN THE PRESENCE OF A 50-60 KT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
FIELD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SEEMINGLY
ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL...BUT LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY
MAY COMPENSATE...PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY CROSSES DEVELOPING WARM FRONT CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER.
FARTHER SOUTH...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO OVERTAKE
THE DRY LINE NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA...WHERE FORCING
FOR DISCRETE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE INTO AND PERHAPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET AXIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT SUSTAINED
STORMS...LIKELY SUPERCELLS...AWAY FROM THE DRY LINE. BUT...A
RELATIVELY NARROW PRE-FRONT/DRY LINE LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE STILL
APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
TO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THIS REGION /MID TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS/
SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...AS COMPARED TO
AREAS FARTHER NORTH.
EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE DRY
LINE LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...BEFORE PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN/ EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AS THEY BECOME CUT-OFF
FROM THE BETTER GULF RETURN FLOW ...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION MAY PERSIST A BIT DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
INSTABILITY WANES.
..KERR.. 03/23/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1949Z (3:49PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
VALID 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL/ERN KS....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID/LWR MO VALLEY....
...PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY...
THE EXIT REGION OF THE STRONG POLAR JET STREAK IS ALREADY SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH AN INITIAL
IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRY LINE...WHICH ARCS SOUTH OF A THE DEEP SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKING THE DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS OCCURS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...AND PRIMARILY AFFECTS THE TRANSITION FROM A MORE
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE TO A SOLIDIFYING SQUALL LINE. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MOST
PROMINENT...IN THE PRESENCE OF A 50-60 KT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
FIELD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SEEMINGLY
ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL...BUT LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY
MAY COMPENSATE...PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY CROSSES DEVELOPING WARM FRONT CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER.
FARTHER SOUTH...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO OVERTAKE
THE DRY LINE NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA...WHERE FORCING
FOR DISCRETE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE INTO AND PERHAPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET AXIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT SUSTAINED
STORMS...LIKELY SUPERCELLS...AWAY FROM THE DRY LINE. BUT...A
RELATIVELY NARROW PRE-FRONT/DRY LINE LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE STILL
APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
TO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THIS REGION /MID TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS/
SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...AS COMPARED TO
AREAS FARTHER NORTH.
EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE DRY
LINE LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...BEFORE PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN/ EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AS THEY BECOME CUT-OFF
FROM THE BETTER GULF RETURN FLOW ...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION MAY PERSIST A BIT DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
INSTABILITY WANES.
..KERR.. 03/23/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1949Z (3:49PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
326 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BOYD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SPENCER...
NORTH CENTRAL HOLT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 322 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTH OF MIDWAY...8 MILES NORTH OF ONEILL...MOVING NORTH AT 30
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MIDWAY BY 335 PM CDT...
SPENCER DAM BY 350 PM CDT...
BRISTOW BY 355 PM CDT...
SPENCER...8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROSS...9 MILES EAST OF BUTTE AND 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANOKA BY 400 PM CDT...
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
326 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BOYD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SPENCER...
NORTH CENTRAL HOLT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 322 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTH OF MIDWAY...8 MILES NORTH OF ONEILL...MOVING NORTH AT 30
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MIDWAY BY 335 PM CDT...
SPENCER DAM BY 350 PM CDT...
BRISTOW BY 355 PM CDT...
SPENCER...8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROSS...9 MILES EAST OF BUTTE AND 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANOKA BY 400 PM CDT...
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
327 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WESTERN COLFAX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 322 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RISING CITY...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLWOOD...
COLUMBUS...
RICHLAND...
9 MILES NORTH OF SCHUYLER...
THE WARNED AREA INCLUDES HIGHWAY 81 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
118 AND 136.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
327 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WESTERN COLFAX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 322 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RISING CITY...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLWOOD...
COLUMBUS...
RICHLAND...
9 MILES NORTH OF SCHUYLER...
THE WARNED AREA INCLUDES HIGHWAY 81 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
118 AND 136.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
330 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WESTERN SEWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
* UNTIL 415 PM CDT
* AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF FRIEND...OR 25 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF YORK...AND MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRIEND...
CORDOVA...
BEAVER CROSSING...
GOEHNER...
TAMORA...
STAPLEHURST...
SEWARD...
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
330 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WESTERN SEWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
* UNTIL 415 PM CDT
* AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF FRIEND...OR 25 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF YORK...AND MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRIEND...
CORDOVA...
BEAVER CROSSING...
GOEHNER...
TAMORA...
STAPLEHURST...
SEWARD...
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