Severe weather outbreak? March 23-24 - Plains/Midwest

[6SpeedTA95]

Well guys pretty disappointing night from a storm chasing perspective. We had great position on a couple storms and they just didn't pan out. The first two storms we were on were on the OK/KS border while we were on them, both went downhill so we headed south and jumped on the guthrie/stillwater storm just after it had blown through stillwater. There was a LOT of hail with that storm, some 1.5 inch stuff maybe a few that were a little bigger. Ground was covered with hail, completely covered...we follow the storm east and north and were set to intercept in osage county when the thing just collapsed.

So we decided to call it a night, we both have to be at our fulltime jobs at about 6:30am, so our night is done.

I think we'll see a moderately impressive squall line come through later with a few bow segments as it pushes into the western arkansas area.

[KWT]

I have to wonder whether the way the cells became linear so rapidly caused a reduction in the tornado chances?

[6SpeedTA95]

I have to wonder whether the way the cells became linear so rapidly caused a reduction in the tornado chances?

I think it did, as I said yesterday I was worried about moisture and overall instability. Storms went up quickly and close together in a moderate moisture environment with most dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s with some pooling in the 58 to 60 range.

Storms wer einterfering with eachother and stealing moisture from one another.

But its the beginning of the year. We've got 10 or so weeks of this, upcoming

[Bunkertor]

Must be an error or so

[RL3AO]

Yeah. The software can pick up fake meso's when its close to the radar site.

[Bunkertor]

XP re-installation has some advantages - a new trial period

[RL3AO]

You should have saved it for a busier period.

[Bunkertor]

That´s what she said...ahm...what i thought several hours ago

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just had some coin-sized hail in OKC. Lots of lightning too.

[Bunkertor]

I just saw there currently are many positive strikes. I thought they were pretty rare

[KWT]

Whats the risk today for some severe thunderstorms, I know the tornado risk is down but still a risk tonight I suppose.

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX/WRN-NRN LA TO MID MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CENTRAL SD AT 12Z WITH FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING FROM SRN MN SWD THRU CENTRAL IA...THEN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
OK TO SWRN TX. S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF TROUGH
OVER PLAINS AND WILL ROTATE RAPIDLY E/NE ACROSS LOWER MO/MS VALLEY
INTO OH VALLEY TONIGHT.

VERY STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 PLUS KT IN WARM SECTOR FROM ERN
TX TO IL/WI THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY VEER AS PRIMARY UPR TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS
MS VALLEY.

WHILE THE KINEMATICS/WIND PROFILES ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE
THREAT THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S TX COASTAL
PLAIN...HOWEVER GPS PW/S...INDICATE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
CENTRAL TX INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. THIS SUPPORTS THE 12Z OBSERVED AND
MODEL FORECAST OF LIMITED INSTABILITY IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...ERN TX/NWRN LA TO MID MS VALLEY...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING E/SE ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY AND SRN
PLAINS WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY...AS CONDITIONS APPEAR LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR ANY PREFRONTAL
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
MLCAPES GENERALLY WILL RANGE DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON FROM 1000-1500
J/KG ERN TX WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO 500
J/KG OR LESS MO INTO MID MS VALLEY.

AS THE S/WV TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THRU THE
AFTERNOON...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE
ARKLATEX ACROSS MID MS VALLEY...SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH FORCED LINEAR
MODE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES WITH
BOTH HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION. WHILE WIND DAMAGE IS
THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY...GIVEN THE LARGE HODOGRAPHS/LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE THRU
THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND NWD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY.
HOWEVER FARTHER N MEAGER AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THE VERY STRONG WIND
PROFILES WILL ENHANCE ANY SURFACE GUSTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

[Dave]

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
753 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTH CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT.

* AT 751 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF MACKS CREEK...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF WARSAW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAURIE BY 810 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF PURVIS...SUNRISE BEACH AND GRAVOIS MILLS ARE ALSO IN THE
PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

[KWT]

So slight warning, I'm guessing thats mainly because of the wind threat we have at the moment though obviously the tornadoes do need to be watched as well just in case.

[Dave]

805 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL CAMDEN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 804 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF LAURIE...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CAMDENTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAURIE BY 815 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF PURVIS...SUNRISE BEACH AND GRAVOIS MILLS ARE IN THE PATH
OF THIS TORNADO.

[Dave]

MORGAN MO-
812 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY...

AT 810 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO NEAR GRAVOIS MILLS...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
OSAGE BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MORGAN COUNTY.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at what is developing, the threat may be conservative, especially for wind. I wouldn't be surprised to see a MDT risk (for a 45 wind) later.

[Dave]

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY...CANCELLED

[Ed Mahmoud]

Limiting factor on strong storms East Texas and Louisiana is a fairly stout cap ballpark 800 to 600 mb seen on LCH sounding, although surface temps into the mid 80s would weaken cap substantially. But low clouds may keep temps below convective temp. If it could warm into the mid 80s, fairly favorable shear and mid-level lapse rates would make for interesting weather, but that cap is stout.