Severe weather outbreak? March 23-24 - Plains/Midwest

[KWT]

Yep that is quite a strong cap, though at least it should prevent it all just becoming a linear set-up like what happened yesterday.
Could well be upped to moderate I think as has been mentioned,

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NWRN AR/SRN AND ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241438Z - 241615Z

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING EWD INTO WRN
MO/ERN OK...AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING EWD/ENEWD ACROSS
KS/OK S OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY /ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND MORNING RAOBS/...UVV ALONG THE FRONT --
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE FEATURE -- WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
A BAND OF CONVECTION INVOF THE BOUNDARY.

WHILE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEATING/ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...WIND FIELD ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL
STORMS. MORNING SGF /SPRINGFIELD MO/ RAOB -- CONFIRMED BY RECENT
AREA VWP/PROFILERS -- SHOWS LOW-LEVEL SELYS VEERING/INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT TO SWLY AT 70 KT IN THE MID TROPOSPHERE. THUS -- DESPITE A
VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL
LOCALLY-ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY...AND YIELD
OCCASIONALLY-SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS AND LIMITED/ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 03/24/2009


ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...OUN...

[KWT]

Still got some severe storms:

000
WUUS54 KTSA 241800
SVRTSA
ARC131-OKC079-241900-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0049.090324T1800Z-090324T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 1259 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HEAVENER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HEAVENER...
HOWE...HARTFORD...MIDLAND...MANSFIELD...HUNTINGTON...GREENWOOD...
BURNVILLE AND WASHBURN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3516 9407 3514 9409 3514 9413 3510 9415
3507 9423 3497 9422 3495 9431 3495 9437
3492 9443 3487 9445 3477 9468 3496 9474
3532 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 242DEG 44KT 3489 9463

$$