Mozambique Channel: ex-IZILDA - Tropical Disturbance

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Some 40kt+ wind speeds there Hurakan, which doesn't surprise me as I think its probably somewhat stronger then the 30kts currently progged at, I'd go with 40-45kts myself.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Seems to have a pretty good circulation looking at that image there Hurakan, just needs a bit more convection but I'd imagine given its going to have plenty of time to develop from the looks of things, it should get a good chance to strengthen.

[P.K.]

Named Izilda.

WTIO30 FMEE 241843

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/11/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11

2.A POSITION 2009/03/24 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4S / 41.9E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 60 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/03/25 06 UTC: 22.9S/42.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/03/25 18 UTC: 23.5S/42.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/03/26 06 UTC: 23.6S/42.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/03/26 18 UTC: 23.4S/41.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/03/27 06 UTC: 23.2S/41.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/03/27 18 UTC: 23.1S/40.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IZILDA.
CONVECTION PRESENTS A CURVED BAND ORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM IS
INTENSIFYING. IT IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FOVBOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, THE
SYSTEM
REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER LEVELS RIDGE, WITH A GOOD POLEWARD INFLOW IN
THE
FIRST PART OF PERIOD, AND GOOD OUTFLOWS IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS,
AND THEN ITS TRACK SHOULD CURVE WESTWARD DUE TO THE REBUILT OF THE
HIGH
GEOPOTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE METEOR.=

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 22.3S 41.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 41.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.0S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.3S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.2S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.0S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 41.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IZILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 241508Z WINDSAT
PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-
NUMBERS OF 2.5 REPORTED BY PGTW AND FMEE. TC 24S IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A SECOND RIDGE WILL BUILD
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND PROVIDE A COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCE, REDUCING FORWARD TRACK SPEED AND TURNING TC 24S SLOWLY
WESTWARD AROUND TAU 24. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL OFFSET THE
POSITIVE INTENSITY INFLUENCES OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,
PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Hmm interesting that they are forecasting shear to prevent this system from really taking off, and whilst to some extent I agree I do think the shear will not be quite as problematic as forecasted, though we shall have to wait and see.

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOUR
TEMPETE TROPICAL MODEREE IZILDA
4:00 AM Réunion March 25 2009
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, <b>Moderate Tropical Storm Izilda [991 hPa]</b> located at 23.1S 42.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The storm is reported as moving south-southeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius of the center

Near Gale Force Winds
===================
60 NM radius of the center, extending up to 160 NM in the western semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 23.6S 42.3E - 45 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 23.8S 42.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.7S 42.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.3S 40.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
Moderate Tropical Storm Izilda continues to intensify deep convection exists near the center as it is shown by the recetnt infrared imagery. Environmental conditions are still rather favorable, as the system tracking on warm sea (28.5C), and in the upper levels, a weak wind shear, and good polarward outflow. Stronger winds extend southwest of the center due to the gradient with the subtropical high pressures. Environmental conditions are expected to remain stable during the next 3 days, so the intensification of the system is expected to be slower than expected in previous forecast. The system is tracking south-southeast. IT is expected to recurve really westward beyond 24 hours due to the rebuilt of the high geopotential south of the meteor.

--
Information was copied and slightly re-written from WTIO30 and Meteo France cyclone website

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 250046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/11/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IZILDA)
2.A POSITION 2009/03/25 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1S / 42.2E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 60 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 200
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/03/25 12 UTC: 23.6S/42.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/03/26 00 UTC: 23.8S/42.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/03/26 12 UTC: 23.9S/42.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/03/27 00 UTC: 23.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/03/27 12 UTC: 23.5S/41.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/03/28 00 UTC: 23.3S/40.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IZILDA CONTINUES TP INTENSIFY
DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS NEAR THE CENTER AS IT IS SHOWN BY THE RECENT
INFRA
RED IMAGERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL RATHER FOVBOURABLE, AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKING ON WARM SEAS (28.5OC), AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK WIND
SHEAR AND A GOOD POLARWARD OUTFLOW.
STRONGER WINDS EXTEND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO THE GRADIENT
WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE DURING THE
NEXT 3
DAYS, SO THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER
THAN
EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
REALLY WESTWARD BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO THE REBUILT OF THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE METEOR

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Very interesting presentation Izilda has right now, shallow convection but it has managed to clear itself an eye of sorts though it does appear to be open at the moment. Do have to wonder if its a little stronger then forecast?

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 40 knots. May be stronger based on the satellite presentation.

[HURAKAN]

25/0830 UTC 23.4S 42.2E T3.5/3.5 IZILDA -- Southwest Indian

Dvorak likes what it's seeing.

[Chacor]

I think that's an obvious eye. 45 kt from MF.

WTIO30 FMEE 251213
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/11/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IZILDA)

2.A POSITION 2009/03/25 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6S / 42.2E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 230 SE: 130 SO: 340 NO: 230

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/03/26 00 UTC: 23.8S/42.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/03/26 12 UTC: 23.6S/42.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/03/27 00 UTC: 23.2S/41.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/03/27 12 UTC: 22.9S/41.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/03/28 00 UTC: 22.7S/40.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/03/28 12 UTC: 22.5S/38.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
SATELLITE PRESENTATION (ENFORCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE CHANNEL) HAS
CLEARLY IMPROVED SINCE 0300Z, AND SHOWS SINCE 0600Z A CURVED BAND
PATTERN WRAPPING OF 7 TO 8 TENS AROUND THE CENTER.
LOW LEVEL CONFIGURATION REMAINS CLEARLY DEFINED (CF MICROWAVE IMAGERY
37GHZ SSMIS-F16 AT 0455Z AND F17 AT 0222Z).
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS NORTHEAST THEN
BECOMING STATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO TWO OPPOSITE STEERING
FLOWS IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE REBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE MAIN STEERING FLOW
BEYOND TAU36, SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS.
UPPER-LEVEL JET (WELL SHOWED ON INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY) EXISTING
IN THE WEST AND IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
IMPROVING THE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE BUT COULD BECOME A LIMITATING
FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM RECURVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS (BEYOND TAU36) LINKED TO A
STRENGTHENING WINDSHEAR.
IZILDA COULD BEFORE REACH THE MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.=

[HURAKAN]

I agree Chacor. MF expects TC intensity in the next 24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yep thats an eye, indeed could be strengthening rapidly as the convection is now wrapping right around the northern quadrants as well. I'm not sure I'd trust the shear idea given how awful the forecasts were with Jasper, and all I see right now is a rapidly strengthening Izilda with an eye.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like the eye is becoming less defined as convection pops.