EC could get a storm

[hurricanedude]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
I dont ususally jump the gun, but something is certainly going on and If i lived anywhere from the Ga coast on up to the Va Coast, which I do i would certainly watch this thing

[Colin]

I live in East PA...think I should be worried? I could get the remnants...

[Stephanie]

Something looks like it's brewing. The convection hasn't waned that's for sure. We had TD #7 in that same general area last week and I would guess that the conditions haven't changed all that much to hinder development! :o

[JetMaxx]

It bears watching....winds aloft have become more favorable for development...but I'm not sure it's going to have time to develop with the trough deepening over the eastern U.S. -- the trough will likely capture the system and propel it north then NE over cooler waters.

btw - here's the latest SST map...everything shaded in white is below 79°...too cool for hurricane formation.
http://128.160.23.54/products/MCSST/HPCg26.gif

[Stephanie]

That trough is a slow mover and it is supposed to be stationary just south of us tomorrow. You're right though, it probably will protect us Perry, at least up by where I am.

[Steve H.]

Area of convection with two weak circulations should get its act together somewhat and head north. There seem to be two circulation areas; one near the central Bahamas; and what I think is the primary one, which is in the NE Bahamas. This one NE of Grand Bahama island should take over and head north, then maybe NE and out of the picture. This maybe the closest a tropical system gets to E. Central Florida this year. The pattern of ridging across the pond is good this year, but the shear and TUTTs/ULLs are creating a hostile environment for development. Makes one wonder if Dr. Gray may lower his numbers in his August update. Seems like the inhibiting factors and the lack of LaNina developing to any great extent may continue into August. But then again, a reversal could happen, as we still are in July. The only real impressive system this season has been Claudette. Danny spun fish and TD #6/#7 were jokes and probably TD #8 may get added to the yawn list. We'll see I guess. Cheers!!

[ameriwx2003]

Steve, your right we are still in July and really just starting to enter the heart of the season. Its seems around mid-August things really start to take off. Also, I have read from a few sources that these ULL lows can be a precursor to active hurricane seasons .Oh well, we will find out soon enough I guess;):)