Severe Weather - March 25-28 - Mid/Deep South/OH Riv Valley

[Dave]

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 87
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 450 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA TO 30 MILES EAST OF MOULTRIE GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 85. WATCH NUMBER 85 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 450
AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 84...WW 86...

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE NEAR THE GULF COAST AHEAD
OF STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. GIVEN VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF COASTAL
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH THREAT EXPANDING NEWD
THROUGH THE MORNING AS STRONG SLY LLJ SPREADS INTO NWRN FL/SWRN GA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CUTHBERT...
TERRELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DAWSON...

* UNTIL 1000 AM EDT

* AT 908 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CUTHBERT...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SHELLMAN BY 930 AM EDT...
DAWSON BY 945 AM...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
913 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN STEWART COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1000 AM EDT

* AT 909 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 23 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LUMPKIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LUMPKIN AND RICHLAND.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
813 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTH CENTRAL GENEVA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT

* AT 810 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARTFORD...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GENEVA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
9 MILES SOUTH OF HARTFORD BY 830 AM CDT...

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
OH/TN VLYS INTO THE SERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OVER OK UP TO
NOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN-WAVE AND EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE E-SEWD AND EXTEND ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LARGE AREA
OF ENHANCED MID AND UPPER LEVEL SSWLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE SERN 1/4 OF THE CONUS.

EXTENSIVE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND NERN GULF COAST REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...WHICH HAS
INHIBITED GULF MOISTURE RETURN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...SSWLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 60 KT
EVIDENT ON MORNING VWP/S OVER THE NERN GULF COAST REGION WILL
TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NWD/BECOME BETTER DEFINED
FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO SRN/CENTRAL GA.
LOCATION OF THIS FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE PARAMOUNT IN
PINNING DOWN CORRIDOR OF MOST INTENSE SEVERE THREAT TODAY. IN
ADDITION...INTENSE DEEP ASCENT AND STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL
ROTATE AROUND MAIN UPPER SYSTEM AND SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM
THE MID SOUTH INTO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. THIS THREAT MAY EVOLVE
IN THE FORM OF SUBSEQUENT BANDS OF MOIST CONVECTION WITH EACH BAND
RACING NNEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS
OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS MAY SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS COMPARED TO REGIONS TO THE NNW AND SSE.

...CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC...
AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT FROM
THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT HAS LIFTED NWD
PRECEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...ALLOWING INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE TO
SPREAD INTO SWRN GA THROUGH 12Z. THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST TODAY
AND ALLOW AREA OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE MLCAPE TO EVOLVE FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA/ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY. EITHER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE/EVOLVE INTO A MORE COHERENT MCS AND LIFT
ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...OR SERIAL SMALLER-SCALE
SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OFF THE GULF AND/OR
NEAR THE FRONT AND IMPACT THE REGION AS THEY RACE NEWD. EITHER CASE
SUGGESTS THIS ZONE COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH A MYRIAD OF SEVERE
THREATS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NNEWD EXTENT OF
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE TEMPERED AFTER DARK...HOWEVER AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD.

...MID SOUTH INTO THE TN/OH VLYS...
A SEPARATE AREA OF SVR POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TN/OH VLYS DURING THE AFTN/EVE...WITH ONGOING STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM NERN AR INTO SRN MO. STRONGEST DCVA
WILL TRANSLATE NEWD AWAY FROM THE RICH GULF MOISTURE SOURCE FARTHER
SE. BUT...LINGERING 50S SFC DEW POINTS ARCING BACK ALONG THE
CDFNT/SFC LOW INTO THE LWR OH VLY BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AMIDST STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR....INCLUDING
A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN ELEVATED. SVR
THREATS WILL DIMINISH WITH NE EXTENT AND AFTER SUNSET.

..EVANS/GARNER.. 03/28/2009

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
948 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEBSTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 945 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES WEST OF
WESTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PRESTON.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1007 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
SCHLEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT

* AT 1006 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PLAINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
AMERICUS...ELLAVILLE AND ANDERSONVILLE.

[brunota2003]

Well, I guess I'm ready for some activity later today. Overcast currently.

[Dave]

Same for my area here in the Ohio Valley late afternoon & tonight. Storms to my west & southwest this morning, nothing severe yet. Overcast and cool here this morning.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1023 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BAKER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COLQUITT...
SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
NORTHERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DONALSONVILLE...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT

* AT 1019 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR DONALSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
COLQUITT BY 1040 AM EDT...

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 89
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1020 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
MACON GEORGIA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 87. WATCH NUMBER 87 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1020
AM EDT.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MESOLOW IN SW
GA...AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NWD FROM SRN INTO CENTRAL GA.
A FEED OF MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...WHILE
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...THOMPSON

[CrazyC83]

Given the slowness of the MCS, I don't see a whole lot happening behind it in the Deep South. The Ohio Valley is where to watch today IMO if breaks develop. More mini-supercells in the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas are also possible.

[Dave]

[Dave]

From Louisville KY NWS:

Severe Storms Possible Late this afternoon through midnight.


Late this afternoon through the evening hours


Low pressure will deepen this afternoon across southeast Missouri. By late afternoon an occluded front will stretch from near Paducah through Nashville, Tennessee. This front will race northeast and lie across southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region by early Sunday morning. Although instability will be limited ahead of this front...strong upper air dynamics may generate a broken line of storms or linear bowing segments this evening. Strong mid-level winds and wind shear may enable some storms to become severe. Damaging winds and large hail are the greatest threats, although an isolated tornado is possible. Check the latest Severe Weather Outlook at the Storm Prediction Center:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov.


Between the times of 6pm and 11pm EDT (5pm and 10pm CDT) will be the best chance of the worst weather. Thunderstorm will initially move into our southwest counties...and move out of our forecast area across southeastern Indiana (aka my region) and the northern Bluegrass area. By Sunday morning, much colder air will arrive upon gusty west winds.

[Dave]

Wilmington OH NWS:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
512 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-290915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
512 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1041 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CRISP COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN DOOLY COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT

* AT 1038 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LILLY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CORDELE...VIENNA AND PINEHURST.

[Bunkertor]

TORNADO WARNING
GAC007-037-095-099-177-201-273-281545-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0036.090328T1501Z-090328T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1101 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BAKER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
DOUGHERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ALBANY...
EAST CENTRAL EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
NORTHEASTERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
SOUTHEASTERN TERRELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 1054 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 18 MILES SOUTH OF LEARY...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST
OF COLQUITT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEARY BY 1115 AM EDT...
ALBANY BY 1140 AM EDT...

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

VALID 281710Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR THE TN
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NE
GULF COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...

CORRECTED TO REMOVE PAC NW TSTM AREA

...SYNOPSIS...
THE OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE OVER S CENTRAL MO WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD
SE LOWER MI BY LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL LIKEWISE PROGRESS NEWD FROM ERN OK TO SRN INDIANA. THE
LARGER SYNOPTIC WAVE IS PRECEDED BY A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
AL/GA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONGOING MCS IN FL/GA. THE
INFLUENCE OF ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A BIMODAL
DISTRIBUTION IN THE THREAT AREAS...ONE WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION
FROM FL/GA NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FARTHER NW FROM
CENTRAL/NRN AL NWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

...NRN FL NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS IS ONGOING FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO SW AND CENTRAL GA. THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE MOVING
NEWD ALONG A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS CENTRAL
SC/NC. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S F AND SOME
SURFACE HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL ALSO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE CLUSTER...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL/NRN AL NWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...
THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS AL/GA/FL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY CLOUDS
AND RAIN-COOLED AIR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM SE AL INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. NW OF THIS...SURFACE HEATING IS WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 60S FROM NRN AL ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO WRN KY IN ADVANCE
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 58-62 F...A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL/NRN AL NWD INTO WRN KY. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG
THE FRONT...GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AOA 200
M2/S2/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 75 KT. THE STORMS MAY TAKE SOME
TIME TO MATURE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR COMPARED TO THE
INSTABILITY...BUT A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THESE STORMS. THE THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER
SUNSET.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/28/2009

[Dave]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

.UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS...

.MORNING UPDATE...

SHOWERS WILL STAY SCATTERED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL STAY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES THERE
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER MODELS THAT OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW 2 TO 4 HOUR
WINDOW LATER THIS EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THIS LOW...ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AROUND 6 PM...AND EXITING NORTH OF THE BLUEGRASS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG UPPER AIR DYNAMICS AND LINEAR FORCING JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...EITHER AS A BROKEN ARC
OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS OR IN SHORT CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS. STRONG
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO ROTATE...BRINGING A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

[Dave]

000
FXUS61 KILN 281554
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1143 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LVL CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MRNG
IN ADVANCE OF COMPLEX WX SYSTEM. MVFR/IFR SC DECK HAD DVLPD ACRS
SE 1/2 FCST AREA AS WELL...UNDERNEATH A SHALLOW LO LVL INVERSION.
TEMPS REMAINED IN THE U40/L50S ACRS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.

COMPLEX WX SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR LATER THIS AFTN AND
PARTICULARLY THIS EVNG. 15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDCG 993MB SFC LO ACRS
SRN MISSOURI WITH AN OCCLUDED FRNTL BNDRY EXTNDG EAST THEN SOUTH
FROM THE LOW INTO ERN MISSISSIPPI. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM
SRN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTH CNTRL GEORGIA...AND THIS WAS WHERE THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WAS LOCATED LATE THIS MRNG. SFC LO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY ERLY THIS
EVNG. AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SHRA OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LO ACRS
SRN ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WRN KY THIS MRNG HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
WORKING INTO THE FCST AREA AS ERLY FLO KEEPING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION. MORNING RUC ANALYSIS INDCG BAND
OF LO LVL CONV WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SRN FCST AREA BY LATE AFTN AS
INCREASING 850 LLJ APPCHS AHEAD OF THE LOW. HAVE DELAYED POPS BY
SVRL HOURS FROM PREV FCST WHICH ALREADY HAD PCPN COMING INTO THE
REGION. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE THRU THE AFTN FROM
THE SOUTH. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER PRIOR TO 21-22Z.

RUC/NAM BOTH INDCG DVLPG AXIS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPCHG
SFC LO BY LATE AFTN...DVLPG ACRS WRN TN/KY AND INTO SRN ILLINOIS.
THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE AS THERE ARE SOME BREAKS DVLPG
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BNDRY ALREADY THIS MRNG...AND EXPECT BEST
CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THESE AREAS. BROAD SWATH OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE SRN FCST
AREA BY ERLY EVNG WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS DVLPG WITHIN THE PCPN AREA.
BEST THREAT FOR SVR WX WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTN IN AREA
MENTIONED ABV ACRS LWR OH VLY (WRN TN/KY) WHERE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...LIKELY AS A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS. THIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR SW FCST AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
EVNG. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW UNSTABLE THE SW
FCST AREA CAN GET AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY WITH FROPA
BEING DELAYED UNTIL LATE EVNG OR SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT. NAM EXTNDG
AN AXIS OF 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE INTO SW FCST AREA BTWN 01-05Z.
MID AND UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE IS EXCELLENT IN THIS AREA THIS EVNG OUT
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPR LO. PLACEMENT OF 120KT UPR JETLET PLACES SW
FCST AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD. BL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN EXCESS OF
50KTS WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 400 M2/S2. THIS ALL SUPPORTS
THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS THIS EVNG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRNTL
BNDRY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR WX WILL EXIST ACRS THE SW FCST AREA WHERE
THE ABV PARAMETERS ALIGN MOST FAVORABLY DURING THE EVNG...WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY SHORTLY AFT SUNSET. APPEARS DMG WINDS AND LRG
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT BL SHEAR/SRH VALUES AND
HODOGRAPHS DO SUGGEST THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING TSTMS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TORNADO. INSTABILITY VALUES STEADILY DECREASE THRU
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE FCST AREA. WHILE EMBEDDED
TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WILL DIMINISH FURTHER EAST AND
LATER INTO THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBILITY FOR SVR
WX IN THE HWO...WITH A FOCUS ACRS THE SW FCST AREA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT PERIODS TOWARDS ABV
THINKING. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&