Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

Ed Mahmoud · #1381 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 3:59 pm

101ºF in McAllen, 21ºF in Amarillo.

I bet there is a cold front in Texas...

#1382 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:59 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:101ºF in McAllen, 21ºF in Amarillo.

I bet there is a cold front in Texas...

WOW!!!! Thats got to be a record!

#1383 Postby **somethingfunny** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 5:27 pm

Afternoon Update

000
FXUS64 KFWD 272114
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
414 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS NOW BLASTING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WITH WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY
BE EXTENDED. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SO FAR SEVERE THREAT HAS
BEEN MITIGATED BY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS OCCURRING
IN REGION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE TORNADO WATCH
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CLEARS AND ENDS THE SEVERE THREAT COMPLETELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND ARE ALREADY IN THE 30S IN THE NW ZONES --EVEN COLDER
UPSTREAM. STRONG COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BRING LOW TEMPS NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING NW OF A EASTLAND-SHERMAN LINE. BECAUSE ITS BEEN
SEVERAL WEEKS SINCE THE LAST FREEZE AND THIS IS RELATIVELY LATE IN
THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

INCREDIBLY INTENSE SPRING TIME UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW NORTH OF I-20...BUT THE MODELS
ARE UNANIMOUS IN DEPICTING NO APPRECIABLE QPF IN OUR CWA. TRACK
OF 700 MB LOW CONFIRMS THAT BEST REGION OF ASCENT/MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT MODELS ARE
UNDER FORECASTING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THIS SYSTEM CAN
BRING INTO PLAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WILL BRING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH INTO THE EXTREME NW ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...AND PUT SOME CHANCES OF NON-ACCUMULATING LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES DOWN TO I-20. NO ADVISORIES PLANNED...BECAUSE EVEN
IF SNOWFALL IS MORE THAN FORECAST...ROADS ARE VERY WARM AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET MUCH COLDER THAN FREEZING ANYWHERE.
PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE NORTHEAST ZONES SATURDAY MORNING.

A COLD AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW
PERFECT PROG GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM FOR TEMPS...AS MOS LOOKS TOO
WARM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND MANY
LOCATIONS IN RURAL AREAS WILL HAVE A LIGHT FREEZE...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS WILL CONTEND WITH FROST. AGAIN TENDER PLANTS WILL NEED
TO BE PROTECTED FROM FROST/FREEZE.

WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING SOUTH
WINDS TO THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL CARRY JUST LOW POPS IN THE EAST LATE
MONDAY FOR THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MORE TAME WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS LOW
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.

NWS DFW holding off on the punt.

#1384 Postby **wall_cloud** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 5:52 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Oh to be in Amarillo - heavy snow and 21 degrees!

you can have it man. After a 12 hour day working the event I could care less if I see any more snow until next season. Its definitely nasty up here right now.

Ed Mahmoud · #1385 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 8:20 pm

12 foot snow drifts per latest warnings from AMA and OUN reporting snow drifts up to the roofs in Boise City, well, it is a good thing it is a week past the Equinox and there is more than 12 hours a day to melt the snow.

But think of how the Ogallala will be recharged, ready to irrigate the crops of the flat and unexciting portions of Texas.

#1386 Postby **wall_cloud** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 8:44 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:12 foot snow drifts per latest warnings from AMA and OUN reporting snow drifts up to the roofs in Boise City, well, it is a good thing it is a week past the Equinox and there is more than 12 hours a day to melt the snow.

But think of how the Ogallala will be recharged, ready to irrigate the crops of the flat and unexciting portions of Texas.

who said it was unexciting?

Extremeweatherguy · #1387 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 10:26 pm

I was northwest of Oklahoma City up toward Seileng and Watonga this afternoon. There were a few bands of heavy snow up that way with 1/4 mile visibility and lots of blowing/drifting. When I left Seileng, there was a good 3-4" on the ground with drifts nearing a foot. No snow yet in OKC though. Just some drizzle/freezing drizzle and a few sleet pellets. Looks like our main snow fun will arrive overnight into tomorrow morning.

Extremeweatherguy · #1388 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 11:29 pm

Some very light snow now flying in my section of OKC. Car hoods have a light dusting.

Extremeweatherguy · #1389 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Mar 28, 2009 2:20 am

Heavier snowbands now trying to work into area. The grassy surfaces are starting to receive some accumulation.

Extremeweatherguy · #1390 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Mar 28, 2009 7:31 am

Snow bands fell apart overnight. Looks like OKC will miss out on seeing a good storm...

arizonasooner · #1391 Postby **arizonasooner** » Sat Mar 28, 2009 10:45 am

We've got a couple inches of snow here in Tulsa and it's still snowing.

This after two rounds of hail at about 4am (which almost covered the ground).

arizonasooner · #1392 Postby **arizonasooner** » Sat Mar 28, 2009 11:07 am

Here are some pics from the March 28 event in Tulsa.

The following hail photo is from early this morning, before the snow started.

Ed Mahmoud · #1393 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Mar 28, 2009 11:22 am

I want pics of 6 foot drifts in Northern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle.
Wind chill at DW Hooks currently 33ºF as nothing comes between the North Pole and Houston suburbs but barbed wire fences.

ETA

I saw nothing but black clouds, lots of lightning and a boatload of rain, but NWS employee at IAH near Humble reported 1.75 inch hail yesterday, and if one uses one's imagination, that looks like sleet pellets, but bigger.

arizonasooner · #1394 Postby **arizonasooner** » Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:17 pm

Up to about 4 inches in south Tulsa now.

#1395 Postby **wall_cloud** » Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:57 pm

Here is the link to the final snowfall totals for the TX/OK Panhandles:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

Extremeweatherguy · #1396 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Mar 28, 2009 1:12 pm

Wow, that's some nice snow in Tulsa. Here in OKC we had a period where it accumulated to a dusting on the grass last night, but that has since melted. Now we are getting a few bands of moderate snow, but the flakes are mostly melting right as they hit the ground. Definitely not as severe here as first anticipated.

#1397 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Sat Mar 28, 2009 1:12 pm

Haven't seen a 30" total yet, but this does appear to be a blizzard for the ages in northwestern Oklahoma and south/central Kansas.

Biggest totals I've seen so far were 28" in Commanche and Pratt, Kansas and 24" in Hooker, Freedom and Alva, Oklahoma.

In Texas, looks like the biggest totals were in Canadian, Booker, and Lipscomb where 15" fell. North Amarillo got 11" and Dalhart got 14".

South of the Red River, Vernon got an 1" and we got a light dusting on rooftops, patio furniture, etc. at first light this morning in the Denison area.

Tx Snowman

Extremeweatherguy · #1398 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Mar 28, 2009 3:00 pm

Wow..

Is today's 12z GFS seriously trying to show yet another chance for snow in just over a week?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif

What is up with all this crazy spring-time weather!?

Extremeweatherguy · #1399 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Mar 28, 2009 5:15 pm

18z GFS now showing another chance of snow even earlier. Next Thursday morning...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif

This run has removed the possibility of snow for next weekend though, with the cold air no longer in place.

Extremeweatherguy · #1400 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Mar 30, 2009 8:17 am

Interesting AFD this morning from Norman...

"BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL MEAN LOWER/NIL POPS ON
WEDNESDAY AND HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GIVEN
SOUTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN 00Z MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS /TEMPS-
DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATION-DURATION/ CREATES CONCERN FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST-CENTRAL-NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...IF THE MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE ON TO SOMETHING AS FAR AS A
FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER TRACK AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...ENOUGH
VARIANCE IN STORM TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS TO PRECLUDE MENTIONING
IN GRIDS AT THIS POINT. WON`T BE A BIG DEAL...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME WET FLAKES THURSDAY MORNING."

...Could Oklahoma be looking at yet more late-season snow?

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