Denver LACK OF snow/winter thread

[Extremeweatherguy]

Glad you guys are finally getting the big storm you had been hoping for.

[PTPatrick]

Storm wrapping up faster than expected. All but shut off for a while this afternoon until light snow picked up again after 300pm. I dont think the the 16 inch amounts will be realized over most of any of the metro area. Looks like south side of town definately hast done as well as would be expected. Looks like a range of 9 inches at Southeast Denver (225 and Parker Rd) and around 12-13 inches near Boulder and Westminster and 11 in highlands/Regis area. Downtown did better than SE denver by a little I think. I stuck the old ruler in a few spots around the yard and came up with 9-10. I havent heard much out of Littleton. Castle rock was only up to 4 inches as of a little while ago. Centennial was at 6.5 inches. Drifts were much larger of course and I have quite a drift up against the fence in my yard. If we dont get much more that will be quite a wierd snow distribution for an upslope storm breaking the old rule of South and west totals being higher. Dry north wind kicked in quick and really seems to have shut things off prematurely for the palmer divide.

Overall I am happy with what we got, would have liked more but I wont be picky.

I am ready for next weeks' storm though

[SCMedic]

Next weeks storm?

It's still snowing, and it was downright NASTY earlier, but I think I picked up around 12" or so here in Erie.

[PTPatrick]

Guess I was wrong earlier... the snow really picked up pretty good later this afternoon and evening. Nothing like this morning, but I am now up to around 13.5 inches here on the east side of Downtown. Still coming down. Has been all night as a good 1/2 per hour or so, with a little stronger band for about 20 minutes around 8:30 tonight. Everybody that shoveled this afternoon thinking it was over are probably not happy campers. I shoveled for the second time at 8:00 and still have another 1.5 to 2 inches fresh on top of that now.

[PTPatrick]

Well I have no idea what my final total is. I can tell you I have anothe 1 1/2 inches on the freshly shoveled areas since my last post last night...but I think there has already been osme melting or compaction as my total in the actual yard now stands at12.5. All total I suspect that anywhere from 14-15 inches has fallen but some has been lost to melting at some point.

[Scott Patterson]

Here are totals around Denver if interested:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=BOU&product=LSR&issuedby=BOU

Looks like a pretty big storm for you guys. It should help the fire danger and dryness out there.

I think most of the state got hit. We got about 6-7 inches way out here, but I imagine the mountains got much more.

The statewide snowpack was at 96% yesterday, but now it's at 99% so the storm added 3% to the snowpack and the snowpack is currently about as close to average as it gets:

ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/daily/co_update_snow.pdf

Before last weeks warm spell however, the statewide snowpack was above average so anything can still happen. Spring is very volatile anywhere in Colorado.

[PTPatrick]

What a difference a day makes...ok 2 days. I am actually surprised snow stayed this long, but I guess it takes a foot a snow a bit of time to melt even in march. I still have some in the shadows and whatnot, but 75% of it is gone. Sun was beautiful today. The soil looks so happy


So, looks like the upcoming weeks storms and such are up in the air, no pun intended. Mondays looks too far north. Mid week and late week look like decent shots. This is what spring time here is supposed to be like! bring it on!

[SCMedic]

So how are we really looking this week? Any good snow on the horizon? I haven't had a chance to scan the models in the last few days...

Ended up with 16" from the last one, with a nice 2" snowfall overnight on top of everything else.

[PTPatrick]

Looks like lots of small chances overnight through the next week, with not much in the way of major storms. There is a possibility of a stronger system late week/weekend time frame but not major. LIke tonight we have a 40% chance, which is nice.

[PTPatrick]

pretty good littlel snow band moved by overnight. I have an inch on all except concrete. Still snowing though. happy Monday

[SCMedic]

Bout time we got some winter storms rolling.. 3-6" on Weds! Friday night and Saturday look like a repeat of last Thursday, which was awesome! They even mentioned another strong storm about a week out in the discussion today!

[PTPatrick]

Yesterday commute storm was a little disappointing, other than the drama of it blowing up out of nowhere with a vengance only to putter out a half hour later. Dowtown basically only got a dusting, although I know some western parts of town got thundersnow and a few inches. Moving on to the weekend. I have a sneaking suspicion this will turn out to be one of those the nails Cheyenne but is too far north for major Denver snow. Seems a slam dunk at this point that we will see snow, but 12 inches seems on the high side, unless can move ever so slightly further south.
GFS and NAM were in good agreement this AM, but supposedly Euro was further north with less snow in Denver. NAM GFS showed QPF in the metro at around 1-1.25 inches. I will take that. Now lets all hurry up and wait

[zephyr99]

That was a nice snow band that moved south through Jeffco. Received about 6" in 6 hours here in Conifer. Was really the heaviest and most consistent snow I've seen all winter. Looking forward to the weekend storm! I'm just glad the pattern has changed and this landscape is getting some moisture! Maybe we'll see a green spring!

[PTPatrick]

another dud storm in denver. Was supposed to be 5-10 inches and we got essentially some rain followed by a dusting...

[zephyr99]

That was one of the worst forecasts for Denver I think. They were still predicting 5-10" like Saturday morning. When by 8am I saw it still didn't start snowing yet, I figured something went awry. I just don't know how they can be so wrong. We got about a foot here in Conifer, so not too disappointing....though it was on the low end of the forecast. East Coast forecasting is a lot better.

[PTPatrick]

Yeah, forecasting in the lee of one of the tallest groups of mountains in north america is a fool's game to say the least. At least in the east you can watch the weather come at you for days. If you live in Mississippi and see the front dropping through Missouri and Arkansas you know its coming. But Denver is just a whole nother ball game. That is part of why I love it, and part of why it drives me batS**T crazy.

[Dencolo]

Don't want to get anyone's hopes up, but there is a chance of some impressive snow by the end of the week. The GFS is not on board, but that's been the most disapointing model of the season. Sounds like if the ECMWF verifies, we may be measuring snowfall in feet. I'd say I'll wait until the day before to get excited, but we've had big time busts even with short term forecasts. Either way, I'm liking the upcoming chances for moisture.

From Denver NWS:
IF YOU BELIEVE THE LATEST ECMWF THERE WOULD BE AN EXCESSIVE
AMOUNT OF PCPN OVER NRN CO FM THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT AS IT SHOWS
FROM 3-5 INCHES OF WATER IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
WITH THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING MUCH OF THIS WOULD FALL AS SNOW
ABOVE 5500 FT.

From Colorado Springs NWS:
HOWEVER...GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM
AND MOVE IT GENERALLY E-W ACROSS THE CENTRAL/N PART OF THE
STATE...WHILE THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AND "DUMBBELLS" THE SYSTEM
GENERALLY E-W ACROSS THE S PART OF THE STATE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES
WE MAY BE DEALING MORE WITH WARM WIND (FIRE WX) AND MTN
SNOWS...WHILE IF THE EC VERIFIES WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE
BIGGEST WX SYSTEM OF THIS COOL SEASON. FROM A CLIM0 POINT OF
VIEW...THE EC APPEARS MORE REALISTIC...HOWEVER WE HAVE HAD A LOT
OF "NORTHERLY" CUTOFFS THIS YEAR.

[Dencolo]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 4_114l.gif

GFS now getting in line with other models. Significant QPF. Mountains are going to get absolutely pounded!

Question is, what will the snow level be?

[SCMedic]

I'm quite surprised this thread isn't hoppin' right now...


Comparisons to the 03 April storm that dropped 58" in spots over the front range.. 1-2' forecasted by some over the metro.. This is the IDEAL situation for a big storm in Denver. Deep deep upslope for 36+ hours.. Fun!

[PTPatrick]

It is certainly an ideal setup for precip...but my concern is the snow level factor. I have now doubt castle rock, evergreen, confier, parker, etc will get hammered. But NWS is very hesitant at this point to make nay definative statements about precip type over the ubran corridor. COS NWS is saying 5500' for their counties, but I have seen anywhere from 5000 to 6000' for the level in the denver discussions. Either way its going to be wet. But elevation makes a huge difference this time of year especially. Remeber when Denver got 30 inches in March 03, Lyons Colorado got nothing, Just up the road. In any case, my vote is on NAM as usual when we are in the 72 hour time frame. and its dumps 3-4 inches QPF from foothills to Boulder, to DIA and SW into the metro.."most of which" shoulder be snow if Nam's temps are right. I will believe it when its falling.