2009 Severe Weather thread

[Ed Mahmoud]

They monkeyed with the Euro?


What will we count on during hurricane season for 7 to 10 day model forecasts that aren't completely on drugs.


I will say, 12Z GFS not so bullish, at all, on early week severe.

[srainhoutx]

They monkeyed with the Euro?


What will we count on during hurricane season for 7 to 10 day model forecasts that aren't completely on drugs.


I will say, 12Z GFS not so bullish, at all, on early week severe.

I know what you mean. I noticed some strange things occurring with the ECMWF last week, but was very hesitant to mention it as all the models have been acting a bit crazy as of late.

http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsl ... df/118.pdf

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bastardi has come to realize that his old standby the European has been lobotomized, and has been out-performed by the GFS lately.

Still, if Euro is right, Monday could be interesting...

Good return of warm Gulf air...


Strong LLJ centered Kansas and Nebraska


Divergent and crossing 500 mb flow above...


GFS timing seems to be a day faster than the Euro


Canadian has some similarities to Euro, but suggests 500 mb and surface flow will be nearly parallel, which could suggest less shear Monday evening.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm, Utah U page, which has hot-linkable model forecasts with date and time built into the URL, so the page doesn't change every 24 hours like the PSU e-Wall pages do (and provides deep layer shear and MUCAPE) is not working.


But PSU e-Wall 12Z GFS does suggest precip in the warm sector in Arkansas and Missouri, although its surface low placement for Monday late afternoon is still different tahn 0Z Euros.



Above image for Monday late afternoon, until about 11 am CDT tomorrow, when it will be Tuesday late afternoon/early evening.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN IL AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181922Z - 182115Z

TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH 20Z-22Z WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
SOUTHERN IL AND EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY NEAR/NORTH OF TERRE HAUTE...WITH
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER CU EVIDENT IN THE NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE I-70/I-44 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH CENTRAL IL/EAST
CENTRAL MO. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE
HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S F SHOULD
QUICKLY ERODE REMAINING CINH...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS
LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF
RATHER MODEST INSTABILITY/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL /GENERALLY TO 1 INCH/ THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED DUE TO A
PERCEIVED MARGINAL/ISOLD SEVERE RISK.

..GUYER.. 03/18/2009

[RL3AO]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS AND UKMET /THROUGH 144
HR/ ARE ALL IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. D4 /WED MAR 25TH/
AND D5 /THU MAR 26TH/ APPEAR TO BE TRANSITION DAYS AS INITIAL
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO MEAN RIDGE IN PLACE OVER ERN CANADA. TSTMS /SOME
SEVERE/ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A MOIST...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS ALONG
THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

BY D6 /FRI MAR 27TH/ THESE DATA INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POWERFUL MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE S-CNTRL CONUS WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY
INTENSIFIES WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE NATION FROM D7 /SAT MAR 28TH/ INTO D8 /SUN MAR 29TH/. SHOULD
THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD...THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR A SERIES OF
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES FROM THE S-CNTRL U.S. TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM D6-D8. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR...DUE IN PART TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
UPSTREAM JET OVER THE N-CNTRL INTO NERN PACIFIC OCEAN. AS A RESULT
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...NO SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED
ATTM.

..MEAD.. 03/22/2009

Looks like an interesting set up over the mid-south/gulf coast regions. Higher dewpoints but maybe less shear than tomorrows set-up.

[srainhoutx]

Latest Update from HPC...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
208 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2009

VALID 12Z WED MAR 25 2009 - 12Z SUN MAR 29 2009

...MORE STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE US THIS WEEK...

DOMINANT FEATURES WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE 4-7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDE POTENT AK/NE PAC STORMS PROGRESSING OVER/INTO LEAD AND
AMPLIFIED ERN PAC/NOAM WEST COAST RIDGING. SIGNIFICANT MID-UPPER
TROF/CLOSED LOW AMPLIFICATION AND REFRESHED WINTERY PCPN FOCUS
OCCURS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/SWRN US. THIS STORM
ENERGY SHOULD EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY FRI-SAT AND WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING TYPE PLAINS
STORM AND HEAVIER PCPN FOCUS. THIS STORM SHOULD TRACK SOMEWHAT
FARTHER SEWD THAN THE PRIOR/LEAD SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING
NEWD UP TO NEAR THE US-CANADIAN BORDER BY EARLY THIS WED. 00/06
UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING TOWARD
SEPARATION OF FLOW OVER THE WEST LEADING TO AN EJECTING CLOSED LOW
THAT TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12 UTC
CANADIAN/UKMET STAY IN LINE WITH THIS...BUT THE 12 UTC GFS OFFERS
A LESS SEPARATE STREAM SOLUTION THAT IS A DAY FASTER WITH LOW
DEVELOPMENT. THE FULL SPREAD OF EARLIER GLOBAL MODELS AND 00 UTC
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT OF
STREAM PHASING OVER THE W-CENTRAL US. SOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY
CORRESPONDS TO POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
ORIENTATION OF FASTER NRN PAC FLOW EXPECTED TO ENTER WRN NOAM BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. NOT SURPRISINGLY...A COMPOSITE FROM ALL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS YIELDS A FLATTER CENTRAL-ERN LOWER 48 SURFACE
SYSTEM EVOLUTION THAN CLUSTERING FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS.
MID-UPPER LEVEL MEAN FLOW CHARTS STILL DISAGREE OVER THE RELATIVE
STRENGTH OF EAST-CENTRAL PAC POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAT FAVOR
A WRN US TROF AND SERN RIDGE PATTERN LIKE THE GLOBAL MODELS SO
STRONGLY SUPPORT...VERSUS ANOTHER POSITIVE ANOMALY NEAR SRN
GREENLAND THAT FAVORS LOWER AMPLITUDE LOWER 48 MEAN FLOW.

DAYS 3-4/WED-THU...GIVEN THE BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS... THE HPC FORECAST STARTS WITH A SIMPLE 50-50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DAY 3/WED
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER IN LIGHT OF THE ECMWF/GFS
BEING FARTHER S/E RESPECTIVELY COMPARED TO MOST OTHER SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE.

DAYS 5-7/FRI-SUN...REMAINING MIXED SIGNALS FROM MEAN FLOW
CHARTS/RESULTING TELECONNECTION GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED ENSEMBLE
SPREAD RECOMMEND A MORE INTERMEDIATE FRI-SUN/DAYS 5-7 SOLUTION.
PREFER TO LEAN MORE ON A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE DEEPER/WWD
SUPPORTING GLOBAL MODELS CONSIDERING THEIR GREAT AGREEMENT/HIGHER
RESOLUTION..BUT STILL FEEL A NEED TO INCORPORATE INTO THE MIX SOME
WEAKER AND MORE EWD SHIFTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO ADDRESS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY.
RAUSCH/SCHICHTEL

[Ed Mahmoud]

Moderate Risk for tomorrow...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...NRN
OK...CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL CLOSE-OFF TONIGHT ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A BROAD 50 TO 65 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING NWD
INTO THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY. ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN IA AND ERN NEB SSWWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO NRN
OK. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT PLAINS...A
POWERFUL 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET ALONG WITH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN
RESPONSE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEVELOPING A
CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN SD AND NW NEB
MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD INTO ERN SD BY
EARLY AFTERNOON EXPANDING SWD WITH TIME ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN NEB.

AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF NEB INTO SRN SD MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA AT 15Z MONDAY SHOW STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT/ AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL. AS THE
COMPLEX MOVES NEWD INTO ERN SD AND DEVELOPS SWD ACROSS ERN NEB
MONDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE CONVECTION CAN
REMAIN DISCRETE.

...OKLAHOMA/KANSAS/NORTH TEXAS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AN IMPRESSIVE 80 TO 100 KT
MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SOUTH OF THE
AXIS OF THE JET...CONVECTION SHOULD NOT INITIATE THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE CAP AND RAPIDLY INITIATING STORMS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR IN ERN KS WITH
THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING SSWWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL OK DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
POSITION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL CERTAINTY
THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NNE TO SSW
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING.

AS THE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 50 KT IN NCNTRL KS TO ABOUT 75 KT IN SRN OK. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL FROM SE KS SSWWD ACROSS WCNTRL
OK WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTH TX. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL OK AND
SRN KS SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE SUGGESTING
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR
ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. IF A SQUALL-LINE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS BY EARLY EVENING...THEN
THE DOMINATE SEVERE THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING STORM MODE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WARRANTS A
MODERATE RISK FROM ERN KS SSWWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL OK.

..BROYLES.. 03/22/2009

[Ed Mahmoud]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...


TRAILING DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PUSHES TO
AROUND INTERSTATE 135 BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION DIMINISHES. MON AFTERNOON/EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE A
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK HELPS DESTABILIZE
THINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S...SO STILL LOOK LIKES A MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPES OF
750-1500 J/KG) HIGH SHEAR SETUP WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OR 55-70 KTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AS COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE NEAR INTERSTATE 35 AROUND 00Z/TUE...0-1KM
SHEAR ALSO LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. SO LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...BUT ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN KS CLOSER TO THE KS/OK
BORDER WHERE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR.

CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A SQUALL LINE OR LINEAR
MCS OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO EASTERN KS BY EARLY ON TUE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

.....

STRONG UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 40 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
AT 300 MB WILL SWING AROUND BASE OF TROUGH WITH 110 KNOT JET AXIS
SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE DURING THIS
TIME WOULD HAVE AN ENHANCED TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT...MAINLY
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

THE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH.
STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WITH LINE OF STORMS SWEEPING INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THIS
TIME...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST
A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT
COULD ALSO REMAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKING FAIRLY CERTAIN FOR LATE TOMORROW
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. ALTHOUGH QUALITY OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...VERY STRONG SHEAR AND
INTENSIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY...SAY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM MODES...BUT QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR MODE
AS STRONGER FORCING APPROACHES AND DEEP LAYER WINDS BACK. STORM
COMPLEX EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

Storms just West of I-35 with MUCAPE over 1000 OK into KS


Spooky forecast sounding for EWG land

[Ed Mahmoud]

Because of a wedding in my wife's family, and the rather exhorbitant price of tickets at Texas Motor Speedway compared to most other NASCAR venues, taking next weekend off from attending the race.


And SPC has TMS (and much of the DFW area) in a risk area this weekend on the Day 4-8.

But perhaps some quality severe weather will be captured on Fox's telecast.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
ALONG 40N S OF WRN ALEUTIANS...SHOULD DIG SEWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN
AND BECOME DEEP TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW OVER GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL/SERN ROCKIES DAYS 5-6/3RD-5TH. TIMING STILL REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT GENERAL SCENARIO OF INTENSE SRN ROCKIES/SRN
HIGH PLAINS TROUGH BY THEN HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT ACROSS
MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN. PROBABILITY OF ROBUST WARM SECTOR
RETURN FLOW AND FAVORABLE OVERLYING WINDS WITH SUCH A PATTERN BY
DAY-6/SATURDAY/4TH-5TH...INDICATES POTENTIAL SVR OUTBREAK OVER
PORTIONS S-CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEKEND.

..EDWARDS.. 03/30/2009

[Ed Mahmoud]

47ºF dewpoint at OKC is a little meager.
But the sun is breaking out.

RUC does seem to imply a dry line forming...






15Z RUC does develop convection just before 7 pm, and has a narrow line of convection near I-35 with MUCAPE near 1000 J/Kg at 10 pm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've ingested large quantities of adult beverages in Tulsa...

[CrazyC83]

Looks like some moderate activity on Wednesday and Thursday as well (although I can't see anything major at this point), but this weekend does look interesting.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
728 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 727 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SOONER LAKE TO 7 MILES EAST OF MULHALL TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CYRIL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
AND WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AMBER...BETHANY...CEDAR VALLEY...
CEMENT...CHICKASHA...COYLE...CYRIL...EDMOND...FLETCHER...GLENCOE...
GUTHRIE...LAKE CARL BLACKWELL...LAKE CHICKASHA...LAKE MCMURTRY...
LANGSTON...LAVERTY...MERIDIAN...MINCO...MORRISON...MULHALL...
MUSTANG...NAVINA...NICHOLS HILLS...NORGE...NORTHERN LAKE
ELLSWORTH...ORLANDO...PIEDMONT...POCASSET...RICHLAND...SEWARD...
SOONER LAKE...STERLING...STILLWATER...THE VILLAGE...TUTTLE...UNION
CITY...VERDEN...WARR ACRES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA CITY AND YUKON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 139 AND 182.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 129 AND 147.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 56 AND 129.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

OKC015-017-031-051-083-103-109-119-310115-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-090331T0115Z/
LOGAN OK-NOBLE OK-CANADIAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-CADDO OK-PAYNE OK-GRADY OK-
COMANCHE OK-
750 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE...NORTHERN GRADY...WESTERN PAYNE...
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN...
SOUTHEASTERN NOBLE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES...

AT 749 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MORRISON TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF COYLE TO 6 MILES EAST OF
FLETCHER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE
EAST OF GUTHRIE... AND NEAR AMBER AND CHICKASHA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AMBER...BETHANY...CEMENT...
CHICKASHA...COYLE...CYRIL...EDMOND...FLETCHER...GLENCOE...
GUTHRIE...LAKE CARL BLACKWELL...LAKE MCMURTRY...LANGSTON...
LAVERTY...MERIDIAN...MINCO...MORRISON...MUSTANG...NICHOLS HILLS...
NORGE...POCASSET...SEWARD...STILLWATER...THE VILLAGE...TUTTLE...
VERDEN...WARR ACRES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA CITY AND YUKON.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
832 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 831 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BLACKBURN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HOMINY AND
WYNONA.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bed time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
949 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM HAIL BRIDGEPORT 33.21N 97.76W
03/30/2009 E1.75 INCH WISE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLFBALL HAIL ON HWY 199 BETWEEN SALT CREEK AND
BOONESVILLE. 7 SE OF KXBP.

I wonder if any campers have arrived early at TMS for NASCAR?


OT: On I-10, I was Eastbound, they were Westbound, just West downtown, saw 2 tractor-trailers with Ron Capps/NAPA Dodge on it. Coming from the O'Reilly Spring Nationals, no doubt. Was one of them the car hauler, or were both souvenir trucks. Quien sabes?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bedtime delayed ten minutes, 'cause my family lives in Euless and Bedford. (Not my wife and kids family, the one before that)

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1009 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1009 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PELICAN BAY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PECAN ACRES AND LAKESIDE BY 1015 PM
EAGLE MOUNTAIN...LAKE WORTH AND WHITE SETTLEMENT BY 1020 PM
SANSOM PARK...RIVER OAKS AND WESTWORTH BY 1025 PM
HASLET AND SAGINAW BY 1030 PM

GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL HAIL WAS REPORTED IN SPRINGTOWN WITH THIS STORM.

ANOTHER SEVERE STORM BETWEEN BOYD AND RHOME...IN WISE COUNTY...WAS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL HAIL. THIS STORM WAS ALSO MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH...AND WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DENTON COUNTY.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Trouble sleeping

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1035 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1031 PM HAIL KELLER 32.93N 97.23W
03/30/2009 M2.75 INCH TARRANT TX NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS MET REPORTS BASEBALL HAIL AT HOME. DAMAGE TO
SKYLIGHT.

[somethingfunny]

Staying in the Richardson/Garland area tonight. Storm should be upon us within a few minutes. Will try to get pictures of hail, if it materializes....

We didn't get any hail, but the rain and thunder was intense. A few more rounds of this and our drought should be alleviated.