Severe weather outbreak? April 2 - MDT risk

[CrazyC83]

This kinda came out of nowhere, but already a strongly-worded moderate risk for tomorrow with tornadoes the main threat.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 010602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT WED APR 01 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SWRN TN TO WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ARKLATEX REGION
TO PORTIONS CAROLINAS AND NRN FL...

SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND -- APPEARS
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF DIXIE. GREATEST
THREAT AREA IS EVIDENT FROM LOWER MS VALLEY/DELTA REGION EWD ACROSS
MS/AL TO PARTS OF WRN GA. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS
EVENT TO EXTEND NWD ACROSS MORE OF MID-SOUTH REGION DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AND/OR EWD TOWARD SRN PIEDMONT/CAROLINAS LATE IN PERIOD.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL CONUS...AND RIDGING OVER E COAST AND NERN PACIFIC.
PROGRESSIVE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PERTURB THAT PATTERN
ON SHORTWAVE SCALE. MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW ANALYZED OVER SRN MN
-- IS FCST TO EJECT NWD ACROSS NRN ONT AND WEAKEN THIS PERIOD.
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY ANALYZED FROM WRN KY SWD
ACROSS SERN MS...EXTREME SERN LA AND NWRN GULF -- IS FCST TO RETURN
NWD ACROSS GULF COAST EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD AS WARM FRONT. WRN SEGMENT
OF WARM FRONT SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS PORTIONS MS/AL AND PERHAPS
WRN TN BEFORE COLD FROPA. ERN SEGMENT OF WARM FRONT -- INVOF FL
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WATERS EWD ACROSS SRN FL - MAY BE MODULATED
BY SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH DAY-1
AND EARLY DAY-2 PERIODS. THUS...NWD RETREAT OF WARM FRONT ACROSS
THAT REGION NWD OVER GA/CAROLINAS MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN
PERIOD...AND IS UNCERTAIN IN NWD EXTENT.

RETURN FLOW WILL BE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND NRN UT. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...EVOLVING INTO COMPACT BUT
INTENSE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW OVER OK BY 02/12Z. THIS
POSITION...AND SUBSEQUENT FCST TRACK ENEWD ACROSS AR BY 03/12Z...IS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUS PROGS...BUT WITH VERY STG AGREEMENT
AMONG AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF CONSENSUS. TROUGH THEN
SHOULD EJECT NEWD ACROSS WRN TN...WRN/CENTRAL KY AND LOWER OH
VALLEY...REACHING OH/WV NEAR END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE
-- INITIALLY OVER OK JUST AHEAD OF 500 MB LOW -- SHOULD DEEPEN
THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS IT MOVES TO WRN KY/SRN IL
AREA...OCCLUDE...THEN EJECT TOWARD NWRN OH/SERN LOWER MI/NERN
INDIANA AREA. TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD FROM CENTRAL
TX/SRN OK POSITION AT 2/12Z...TO WRN TN...WRN/CENTRAL MS AND SERN LA
BY 3/00Z...THEN FROM WRN CAROLINAS TO ERN FL PANHANDLE BY 3/12Z.

...ARKLATEX TO WRN GA AND MID-SOUTH...
PRIOR NOCTURNAL SVR POTENTIAL DESCRIBED IN DAY-1 OUTLOOK IS FCST TO
CARRY OVER INTO MORNING HOURS AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE MAIN INITIAL THREAT...WITH DAMAGING
WIND/TORNADOES BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT
HOURS AS FOREGOING BOUNDARY AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM COMBINATION
OF WAA...MOIST ADVECTION AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING. S OF WARM
FRONT...MARINE AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS
MID/UPPER 60S F WITH SPOTTY 70S...BENEATH INCREASINGLY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ACCORDINGLY
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG FROM MID-DAY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

WARM SECTOR FLOW MAY BE SOMEWHAT VEERED...I.E. SSWLY TO
SWLY...REDUCING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SOMEWHAT WITH STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC FORCING PROGGED AHEAD OF SFC CYCLONE OVER OH VALLEY.
NONETHELESS...VERY STG MID-UPPER WINDS...INCLUDING 80-90 KT 500 MB
SPEED MAX...SHOULD SHIFT EWD FROM LA TO GA...YIELDING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES 60-70 KT OVER SAME AREAS AS LARGEST BUOYANCY -- I.E.
CATEGORICAL MDT RISK OUTLOOK. GIVEN LACK OF GREATER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...ACTIVITY NEAR COLD FRONT MAY BE QUASI-LINEAR...BUT PROGGED
COMPONENT OF MEAN WIND ACROSS FRONT ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND DAMAGING BOW/LEWP FEATURES.
LARGEST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE ALONG WARM FRONT...WHERE 0-1 KM
SRH SHOULD EXCEED 250 J/KG. ANY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED STORMS MOVING
THROUGH WARM SECTOR...OR INTERACTING WITH BACKED WINDS ALONG WARM
FRONT...MAY POSE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK. RELATIVE MIX OF
CONVECTIVE MODES...AND COVERAGE OF STORMS AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BAND...REMAIN PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ATTM.

INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS MID-SOUTH REGION
INTO OH VALLEY...THOUGH AT LEAST ONE NARROW BAND OF SVR TSTMS
APPEARS LIKELY INVOF COLD FRONT.

...SERN CONUS...GA TO CAROLINAS...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STG-SVR CONVECTION MAY OCCUR INVOF RETURNING WARM
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGHOUT PERIOD...WITH ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR
SVR...AMIDST INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. NOCTURNAL POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE FROM W AS STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WAA
YIELD MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATION...AND HODOGRAPH SIZE
INCREASES BENEATH NOCTURNAL LLJ. MAIN UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE AROUND
INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT/PRIOR CONVECTION ON RETREAT OF WARM FRONT
OVER THIS REGION...AND RESULTING HINDRANCES TO DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD.

..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1148Z (7:48AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[KWT]

Yep does seem to have come somewhat out of no-where but these moderate events will probably be coming along fairly often from now onwards.

[Ed Mahmoud]

NAM looks interesting Arkansas to Kentucky


NIU sounding machine shows some decent helicities as well ahead of the surface low in Tennesee and Kentucky. SB instability a tad low, but during the early severe season, wind dynamics often make up the difference.

Also a suggestion of a weak coastal front or boundary from Mississippi to Florida and Georgia, with somewhat stouter CAPE, good deep shear and the localized effect of a wind shift boundary on the coast.



Maybe a second enhanced risk area I-10 from MSY to past AAF?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Double post alert for my neighborhood...


OK, new 12Z shows a stout cap for HOU with a cooler stable near surface layer, no storms ahead of the front tomorrow ballpark AM rush, but look at how fat the CAPE is above 750 mb. Maybe enough speed shear in that unstable mid-level area for some elevated rotation along or just behind the front, and maybe some hail.


Maybe. I am an amateur, and I need to update my well repair status spreadsheet.

[Brent]

Yikes.



I'm honestly a bit skeptical after the Saturday bust(1 tornadic supercell that lasts an hour is not my idea of an outbreak)

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS likes one area of convection blowing up around 4 pm in Arkansas and Mississippi moving into Tennessee and Alabama by early evening.



GFS also likes a separate area with the coastal front Florida Panhandle and neighboring parts of Alabama and Georgia.



Interesting times, no doubt tomorrow by early afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

Somewhat reminiscent of March 1, 2007 I am finding...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Starting early...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
441 PM EDT WED APR 1 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TITUSVILLE...SCOTTSMOOR...PLAYALINDA
BEACH...MIMS...HAULOVER CANAL...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MIMS...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. AN EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A TORNADO
SIGHTING NEAR GENEVA WITH THIS STORM. PEOPLE IN TURNBULL AND MIMS
SHOULD TAKE COVER NOW!

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MIMS AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF SCOTTSMOOR BY 450 PM EDT...
7 MILES NORTH OF TITUSVILLE BY 455 PM EDT...
HAULOVER CANAL BY 505 PM EDT...
MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE BY 515 PM EDT...
KLONDIKE BEACH BY 520 PM EDT...
PLAYALINDA BEACH BY 525 PM EDT...

[CrazyC83]

That isn't even the same system...but definitely looks bad there.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That isn't even the same system...but definitely looks bad there.

Well, it is the convectively reinforced outflow boundary/marine front that gets some discussion in the Day 2 SWODY that is making all the fuss in Florida.

snip

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL MOVE SE INTO THE
SRN PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES
THURSDAY. ATTENDANT LEE CYCLONE OVER OK EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIFT
ENEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...REACHING THE OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST AND EXTEND FROM
THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD INTO
THE GULF COASTAL STATES...BUT NWD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY
BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION.

[baygirl_1]

I love the weather-- I mean, that's why I'm here. But I really am tired of this rain/storm roller coaster ride we've been on here in coastal MS, AL, and FL lately! It's such an active pattern. We always have joked here that if you don't like the weather, then wait 5 minutes and it'll change. That really is the case these days! Some school buses had trouble getting kids home here yesterday due to flooding. Not good!
Here's info from the Mobile NWS about tomorrow's event. It looks like it may be more of a wind event rather than rain. I'm not sure that's any better...?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)LAST NIGHTS FRONT HAS
ALREADY STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
JUST OFFSHORE BALDWIN COUNTY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT THE FRONT
TO DRIFT BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AND MOVE ONSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING UP AND OVER THE WARM
FRONTAL SURFACE. AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH DURING
THE DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THERE IS NO ONE
SINGLE SEVERE PARAMETER THAT JUST JUMPS OUT AND SHOUTS SEVERE...BUT
SEVERAL PARAMETERS THAT ARE AT THE CUSP. A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP TO BREAK OR WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW
STORMS TO INITIATE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT CAN MAKE IT TO OR JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THINK THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TEND TO CE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE GREATEST RISK WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
CAN BE ENHANCED. RAIN AND SHOWERS END LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER TWO INCHES AS THIS SYSTEM IS
MOVING FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES AND WITH LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. HEAVIEST TOTALS OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. /11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 AM CDT WED APR 1 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

/snip/
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. AS
THE FRONT BRINGS INCREASED LIFT TO THE AREA...AN ASSESSMENT OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY...TEMPERATURE...MOISTURE...AND WIND
PROFILES FAVOR THE POTENTIAL OF LONG TRACK AND STRONG TORNADOES IN
ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE LIKELY WITHIN LINES OF STORMS. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH TIDAL RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 2 FEET AND AN
OUTGOING TIDE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON MAKES FOR A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA SHORES. HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MANY AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN FLOOD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR WITH
IT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD STAY ON
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY...ACTIVATION
OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
REQUIRED.

[snoopj]

Somewhat reminiscent of March 1, 2007 I am finding...

Looking like it. The early cloud cover could do what it did on that day. The cloud cover kept the cap in place until the tail end of the day and most of the major damage was evening/night time if I'm not mistaken.

--j

[KWT]

Does seem to me that a lot of the events have been occuring fairly far east compared to what is normal, at least for now though maybe thats not true?

[LSU2001]

The following special weather statement popped up around 4:30 pm CDT. This morning the local forecasters were saying that it looked as if the Thursday weather event would not materialize but the NWS thinks otherwise.
Tim

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
426 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-020400-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY

426 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...

A STRONG SPRING STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BE APPROACHING THE GULF STATES THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A SQUALL LINE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GREATEST THREATS ACROSS LOUISIANA WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS NICKELS OR QUARTERS IN DIAMETER. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP BUT THE RISK APPEARS TO BE GREATER CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE NORTHWARD. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL END WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MID- AFTERNOON HOURS.

CITIZENS ARE URGED TO PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA. CHECK THE BATTERIES IN YOUR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO AND ENSURE IT IS PROPERLY FUNCTIONING BEFORE TOMORROW. HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION IN THE EVENT WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. STAY TUNED TO TV...RADIO OR THE INTERNET FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND DEVELOPMENTS REGARDING THIS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT.

$$

24/RR

EMPHASIS MINE
Tim

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yikes.



I'm honestly a bit skeptical after the Saturday bust(1 tornadic supercell that lasts an hour is not my idea of an outbreak)

I'm with you Brent. Last two severe weather events have been non-existent for us down here. We did get hit a little hard in spots on the early morning of the 27th but was supposed to be even worse the next day and got nothing, just a little shower, then yesterday as well with severe wx watches posted and was sunny all day. Getting to be have to believe it when I see it.

[CrazyC83]

Somewhat reminiscent of March 1, 2007 I am finding...

Looking like it. The early cloud cover could do what it did on that day. The cloud cover kept the cap in place until the tail end of the day and most of the major damage was evening/night time if I'm not mistaken.

--j

Actually, the first destructive tornadoes were before noon that day, and then it continued on and off. However, the cloud cover kept everything to the south across southern Georgia and Alabama. Transpose that to the west - starting in Mississippi instead - and that is my thinking for tomorrow (with the worst activity south of I-20).

[CrazyC83]

With NO activity developing to the west, I think only the cap holding can prevent an outbreak, since cloud cover won't be an issue and it will be ripe and ready for development right away. I expect it to develop pretty quickly - and I am thinking it will be a HIGH risk at 0600Z.

[srainhoutx]

With NO activity developing to the west, I think only the cap holding can prevent an outbreak, since cloud cover won't be an issue and it will be ripe and ready for development right away. I expect it to develop pretty quickly - and I am thinking it will be a HIGH risk at 0600Z.

Keep an eye on TX/AR/LA as the dryline gets going.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Morning commute time in the neighborhood, cool stable layer, but nice instability in the mid levels, with a TT over 55, and a little directional and more than a little speed shear in the unstable layer above, maybe an elevated supercell with some hail along/behind the front...





A little local appetizer before the big show farther East, maybe.