Severe weather outbreak? April 2 - MDT risk

[CrazyC83]

Does seem like some clearing is occuring in the more northern region of the risk zone, there is also some good clearing occuring though further south now ahead of the cloud mass heading into LA.

The latest RUC model is very bullish though - high risk likely if that is what the SPC goes with.

[KWT]

Is it really that bullish, I've not really been keeping up with the models, would it be possible to have a very quick rundown of what they suggest?

[rsdoug1981]

Dropping in to say that I am in central MS, and I've got bright blue skies and lots of sun.

And..agreed, crazy, the RUC has big outbreak written all over it. My RUC sounding looks downright scary.

[KWT]

So we should be expecting either a very bullish mod or high risk then?

I suspect it won't be long before we see some severe thunderstorm watches go up inbetween the currents watches that are up for the severe storms that are already in place.

Talking of them:
000
WUUS54 KLCH 021420
SVRLCH
LAC009-079-021445-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0066.090402T1420Z-090402T1445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN AVOYELLES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EFFIE...
NORTHERN RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PINEVILLE...BOYCE...ALEXANDRIA...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 919 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM BOYCE TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF BOYCE TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ALEXANDRIA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOYCE TO 8 MILES SOUTH
OF BOYCE TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF GLENMORA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
ALEXANDRIA BY 930 AM CDT...
PINEVILLE BY 935 AM CDT...
BALL BY 940 AM CDT...
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DEVILLE AND 6 MILES WEST OF EFFIE BY 945 AM
CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 9216 3141 9214 3138 9209 3134 9207
3134 9208 3123 9198 3104 9276 3127 9272
3146 9281 3148 9278 3148 9270 3142 9267
3140 9263 3149 9221
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 266DEG 44KT 3140 9266 3128 9260
3106 9264

$$

06

[rockyman]

New tornado watch upcoming for MS, SE Ark, NE LA:

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0105.html

[rsdoug1981]

Some select info from KJAN RUC sounding valid 18z Thursday:

PW: 1.46 in
LI: -8.2
SWEAT: 517
CAPE: 1877 J/KG
CAP: .1
EHI: 2.5

It could be worse, but you have to like the odds.

[KWT]

Looks good enough for a high risk to be considered I suppose.

Also theres that watch that I was expecting to come up soon rockyman!

[rockyman]

The new tornado watch over MS has a HIGH risk of tornadoes and a MODERATE risk of EF2 or stronger tornadoes

[CrazyC83]

Surprisingly not PDS considering the numbers (70/50 usually warrants such)...

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 925 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 40 MILES EAST OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 102...WW 103...WW 104...

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE IN LA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
LA/MS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW OVER N TX/SRN OK. 12Z
SOUNDINGS IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION REVEALED AN ENVIRONMENT OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. DEEP LAYER
AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN THE LINE...WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH WITHIN THE LINE AND PERHAPS E OF THE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS. THE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...THOMPSON

[KWT]

Interesting to see the PDS not issued, I suppose they may wait till a little later just to make sure there is enough clearing of the cloud cover maybe?

Also impressive high risk for tornadoes, I should think given the RUC that seems quite logical...going to be a very long day methinks!

[CrazyC83]

Large clear zone from about Lafayette up to Jackson, and clearing rapidly in northern Mississippi and Tennessee. The eastern convection zone runs from about Mobile up to Tuscaloosa/Meridian and then over to Huntsville.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think it'll clear out nicely up into Tennesee and Kentucky, and check out the RUC forecast for BNA...




ETA:


Just a couple of extra degrees of warming would really diminish the CINH...

Second edit to remove extra "e" from word "extra".

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just an amateur, no training, mainly a football and car racing guy, but the RUC 4 pm Tupelo sounding would tempt me to go HIGH RISK at 11:30am CDT..

[CrazyC83]

The Tupelo RUC sounding is just terrifying...that definitely warrants an upgrade to high risk. As for the PDS on the watch, I can see why they held off - there are areas surrounding it not in any watch in multiple directions, and an overlapping PDS watch would be shaped such later today.

[snoopj]

Just an amateur, no training, mainly a football and car racing guy, but the RUC 4 pm Tupelo sounding would tempt me to go HIGH RISK at 11:30am CDT..

I'm even more amateur than you and those numbers on the right side scare the hell out of me.

--j

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tupelo in a watch now, but a generic Tornado Watch, not PDS.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1102 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT/1230 PM EDT/

* AT 1058 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF SAINT JOE
PENINSULA...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT ST. JOE...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WHITE CITY BY 1215 PM EDT...
DALKEITH BY 1125 AM CDT...

[Dave]

CajunMama's area - Lafayette LA

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1104 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW IBERIA...
LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTT...LAFAYETTE...CARENCRO...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ST. MARTINVILLE...CATAHOULA...BREAUX
BRIDGE...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ABBEVILLE...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 1103 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF SCOTT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BROUSSARD...YOUNGSVILLE AND LAFAYETTE...
ST. MARTINVILLE...
CATAHOULA...
BUTTE LA ROSE...

[RL3AO]

That is an impressive sounding.

[CrazyC83]

Watch 106 is only until 3 pm though, so they may be thinking something bigger later...