The bomb...

[wow]

Keep an eye out..

[cycloneye]

The models are jumping on it already so I think this will be the kicker system for the cape verde season.

[Andrew92]

'Course we thought that about T.D. 6 and look what happened.....

Still, I think this one bares watching.

-Andrew92

[wxman57]

Here's a shot from 18Z with land and ship/buoy data plotted:

Actually, it looked like the GFS was "jumping on" that system near 9N/35W. But it's hard to tell over the first few days what it's tracking. The GFS does show something entering the eastern Caribbean on the 3rd and the eastern Gulf around the 9th.

[vbhoutex]

You are not the first Met I have had tell me this one could be a player. It has been large and active all the way across the African Continent. The wind barbs already are hinting at a circulation. With some of the models picking up on this system early on it definitely will need to be watched. So much for a long quiet period!!!

[Rainband]

We shall see...at least we have plenty of time to watch it.. :o

[Derek Ortt]

Still have a problem with the SAL though. NOGAPS and UKMET (my favorite) do not yet show a closed LLC. Therefore, this is a watch and wait scenario at the present time.


As an aside, this kind of seems a lot like Alex 5 years ago when we had thazt massive wave moving off, only to have development stifiled by a rediculously dry environment

[Stormsfury]

Ummm, well, that area is already looking more than impressive with an outflow channel already on its equatorial side ... the last SAL image I looked at just now has dry air well north and well south ... and not involved with this system ...

This one could definitely be one to watch ... all the 12z models except the UKMET want to develop a closed low around 35W-40W (including the GFDL looking at Invest 99L - the tail end of the loop, a closed low comes into view of the larger gridscale in the Tropical Central Atlantic around 12ºN.)

SF

[cycloneye]

Hummm that is interesting Stormsfury and I guess that all in the islands including here in Puerto Rico will have days of watching to do.

[JetMaxx]

I've learned over the past three seasons not to get very excited until they reach 30° W....but there is substantial global model support for this one to develop....so it's one to definitely keep an eye on.

I remember the wave that became hurricane Allen in 1980 came off Africa about this time of July....and was also around 10-11° N -- (which will keep it over 26°C or higher sst's).

We'll see...

PW

[chadtm80]

WOW.. Impressive looking.. I just got home from work so havent checked anything out yet but sure looks good, but we all know what the good old atlantic can do to these things

[Toni - 574]

One day at a time! Today it looks GREAT comming off the coast. Makes me a little nervous though, that the models are picking up on this or ? already.

[GulfBreezer]

72 hours out...........

[ameriwx2003]

Wxman 57. Your right!!. I went back and looked closer at todays model runs and it looks like the 06 UTC GFS that sent a system into the Gulf latched onto the wave around 10 N 35 W . The later runs appear to latch onto the wave exiting Africa now.

[cycloneye]

In the last 00:00 UTC pic it lost some convection but overall it has a great structure and the banding is plenty so so far it has survived for the most part the inicial water encounter.

[chadtm80]