Severe weather outbreak? April 2 - MDT risk

#141 Postby **Dave** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:31 pm

Date: Apr 02 150500 EDT
Type: TORNADO
City: BAY ST. LOUIS
County: HANCOCK
State: MS
Source: FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
Details: TORNADO SPOTTED NEAR THE COAST BETWEEN BAY ST LOUIS AND WAVELAND.

#142 Postby **Dave** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:34 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
233 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN NOXUBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 233 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BROOKSVILLE TO 14 MILES
SOUTH OF COOKSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
DEERBROOK AND COOKSVILLE BY 240 PM CDT...
PRAIRIE POINT BY 245 PM CDT...
BIGBEE VALLEY BY 250 PM CDT...

#143 Postby **Dave** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:38 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
237 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COLUMBIA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 236 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF
MOUNT PLEASANT...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAWRENCEBURG...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT
PLEASANT AND 9 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBIA BY 300 PM CDT.

#144 Postby **Dave** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:39 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
238 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ST. MARTIN...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN
SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...ESCATAWPA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 237 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ST. MARTIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VANCLEAVE BY 245 PM CDT...
WADE BY 255 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

#145 Postby **Dave** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:41 pm

Going to Tornado warnings only for awhile....someone else wants the multiple thunderstorm warnings go for it.

#146 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:42 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Maybe today should have been a HIGH RISK day...

So far, the MDT hasn't verified, but QLCS situations often lead to tornadoes as well...

Have they gone HIGH RISK for hail or derechoes in the recent past, ie, HIGH RISK w/o a hatched tornado area?

Just curious.

Hail: not possible.

Wind: it is possible for a super-derecho but rare, requires a 60-hatched wind area. I have only seen it a couple times.

#147 Postby **Dave** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:43 pm

#148 Postby **Dave** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:45 pm

Thunderstorm Warnings now starting up in IL..Line runs from southern IL to the Gulf coast.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
241 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SIMPSON...OR NEAR VIENNA...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
BURNSIDE AND STONEFORT

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

#149 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:46 pm

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105...WW 106...WW
107...WW 108...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM MIDDLE TN NWD INTO WRN KY IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE HPX
VWP SHOWS FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHILE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE AT LEAST SUFFICIENT
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ALONG AND S OF THE PRIMARY
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE OH RIVER.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...THOMPSON

#150 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:48 pm

I think we have FOUR areas to watch now:

1) The main line. While it should be mostly linear, spinups are possible for sure.

2) Cells in the breaks in southern GA/AL and the FL panhandle. That could be the most dangerous part as clouds break down there in the best moisture.

3) The triple-point area up towards AR/MO, although the dynamics are not great there.

4) Behind the main line in LA/MS, as things clear, will things stabilize in time or could we see backbuilding?

#151 Postby **Dave** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:49 pm

Switching to local weather at this time...good luck to everyone south of Indiana. Will try to stop in later tonight but looks like we'll be busy around here in a few hours also.

#152 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:50 pm

1715 WATSON LIVINGSTON LA 3058 9095 TORNADO SNAPPED TRESS IN HALF NEAR WATSON...ON HIGHWAY 16 NEAR THE OAK HILLS SUBDIVISION. (LIX)

1905 BAY ST. LOUIS HANCOCK MS 3031 8933 TORNADO SPOTTED NEAR THE COAST BETWEEN BAY ST LOUIS AND WAVELAND. (LIX)

Bunkertor · #153 Postby **Bunkertor** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:52 pm

Bye Dave !

Bunkertor · #154 Postby **Bunkertor** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:1715 WATSON LIVINGSTON LA 3058 9095 TORNADO SNAPPED TRESS IN HALF NEAR WATSON...ON HIGHWAY 16 NEAR THE OAK HILLS SUBDIVISION. (LIX)

1905 BAY ST. LOUIS HANCOCK MS 3031 8933 TORNADO SPOTTED NEAR THE COAST BETWEEN BAY ST LOUIS AND WAVELAND. (LIX)

No surprise. The LIX sounding was ( is? ) really scary

Bunkertor · #155 Postby **Bunkertor** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:58 pm

WFUS53 KPAH 021955
TORPAH
KYC035-139-143-157-221-022030-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0025.090402T1955Z-090402T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
255 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
EASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
WEST CENTRAL TRIGG COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
BENTON...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF MURRAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BENTON BY 305 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

Bunkertor · #156 Postby **Bunkertor** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 3:04 pm

Here´s a sounding. Birmingham, i suppose.
Cap still in place. Do you guys see more ?

rockyman · #157 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 3:07 pm

Moderate Risk areas being dropped...now Slight Risk

rockyman · #158 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 3:09 pm

Tornado risk highest (hatched) over NW MS, eastern Ark, SW Tennessee

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... 0_torn.gif

Ed Mahmoud · #159 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 3:10 pm

1) That cap looks almost negligible. Take a look at soundings from Del Rio or Corpus Christi almost any Spring Day to see a cap of forged steel

2) Anyone post tornado warnings on cells Southwest of BNA yet?

Bunkertor · #160 Postby **Bunkertor** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 3:15 pm

WWUS54 KOHX 022003
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
303 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

TNC055-119-022030-
/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-090402T2030Z/
MAURY TN-GILES TN-
303 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN GILES AND WESTERN MAURY COUNTIES...

AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT...
OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MOUNT PLEASANT BY 310 PM CDT...
COLUMBIA BY 330 PM CDT...

Severe weather outbreak? April 2 - MDT risk

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