![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2009/sh952009.09040318.gif)
WTXS21 PGTW 040030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 57.6E TO 12.9S 53.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 57.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
57.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 031841Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. 24 HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS IN THE AREA INDICATE A 2MB
DROP. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IS
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SLOWLY
STEERING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050030Z.
//
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