SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, new 12Z shows a stout cap, no storms ahead of the front tomorrow ballpark AM rush, but look at how fat the CAPE is above 750 mb. Maybe enough speed shear in that unstable mid-level area for some elevated rotation along or just behind the front, and maybe some hail.


Maybe. I am an amateur, and I need to update my well repair status spreadsheet.

[PTrackerLA]

Getting nailed right now in Lafayette. I thought we would have a bust again like Tuesday but looks like at least an hour of heavy thunderstorms ahead followed by high winds.

Severe thunderstorm warning now:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1104 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW IBERIA...
LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTT...LAFAYETTE...CARENCRO...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ST. MARTINVILLE...CATAHOULA...BREAUX
BRIDGE...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ABBEVILLE...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 1103 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF SCOTT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BROUSSARD...YOUNGSVILLE AND LAFAYETTE...
ST. MARTINVILLE...
CATAHOULA...
BUTTE LA ROSE...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm surprised that warning didn't come about 20 minutes earlier, there was a bowing segment along I-10 and Northward coming into LFT that probably was generating some decent wind gusts.



ETA

Penny sized hail West of us in Colorado County in Weimar, but just a nice sort of windy t-storm with beneficial rain, and not all that much thunder and lightning.

I was about to wonder about the Red Flag Warning from the local NWS, but while HOU got about a third, just about a tenth or less at DWH and IAH.

It rained a fair amount during my commute...

[vbhoutex]

Hold onto your skirts!!! Wind advisory in effect for our area. Winds currently sustained 20-30 mph with gusts to 41 mph here in Spring Branch. Wouldn't want to be a high profile vehicle in our area right now!

[CajunMama]

Crazy wind and rain around noon and then probably less than 2 hours later it was beautiful outside. Not a cloud in the sky.

[jasons2k]

I got .10" yesterday. It's just gorgeous today and looks like a great Saturday ahead!

[vbhoutex]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=104028&p=1872017#p1872017

[jasons2k]

It is crazy windy here today - and it's starting to get a little chill in the air too. We might have a frost threat tomorrow night, so be prepared to protect tender vegetation!!

I had a low of 69 and it's 72 now after a high earlier of 76.

[southerngale]

It is crazy windy here today - and it's starting to get a little chill in the air too. We might have a frost threat tomorrow night, so be prepared to protect tender vegetation!!

I had a low of 69 and it's 72 now after a high earlier of 76.

We spent over 7 hours at the South Texas State Fair yesterday/last night. It was a blast! Gotta love SE TX weather... in the middle of the afternoon, that first sip of the ice cold Diet Coke I bought was like heaven in a bottle. By the time we left, we wanted hot chocolate to warm up! It was rather chilly, but the wind just made it feel so much colder. Other than a few of the rides temporarily closing on and off due to the wind, I don't think you could ask for better Fair weather... it was a beautiful day. I got a little sunburned though.

Hit a low of 44° last night... supposed to be a lot colder tonight!

[jasons2k]

The NWS has lowered my forecast low from 35F down to 33F. Too close for comfort for me - I might be moving some plants closer to the house tonight. I sure hope we can avoid a freeze and/or a frost - this is not good at all so late in the season!

[southerngale]

That's not a bad idea, Jason. It's going to be a close call for many areas.

Snippet from this afternoon's NWS AFD:

...VERY COLD SPRING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT FREEZE NORTH AND
NEAR RECORD LOWS ALL AREAS...


HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...

AEX...31 IN 1971
BPT...37 IN 1971
LCH...34 IN 1971
LFT...35 IN 1971
ARA...33 IN 1971

[jasons2k]

I had a low this morning of 37F. There was dew on our cars but there was frost on many of the surrounding rooftops. Looks like we skated by on this one.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My house is in a Severe outlook 3 of the next 8 days. Don't know about hail or wind damage, but downpours welcome. Well, except maybe during the Saturday family Easter party and egg hunt.

[vbhoutex]

I had a low this morning of 37F. There was dew on our cars but there was frost on many of the surrounding rooftops. Looks like we skated by on this one.

Same here in the Spring Branch area.

[southerngale]

The Instaweather/Weatherbug station a little to my west hit a low of 34° and the one a little to my east hit a low of 32° so I think it's pretty safe to say my temperature was somewhere around there, or in between. I know it was darn cold!

Officially, we broke the record at BPT (down at the airport) with a low of 36°. The previous record was 37° set in 1971.

[jasons2k]

That sure is chilly Southerngale! At least you didn't get another freeze though

[Ed Mahmoud]

Austin and Waco also set all time April low temperature records today.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AT WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT WAS 26
DEGREES. THIS NOT ONLY BROKE OLD RECORD FOR APRIL 7TH...OF 32 DEGREES
SET IN 2007 BUT ALSO BROKE THE OLD RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL OF
27 DEGREES SET ON APRIL 3RD 1975.

RECORD EVENT REPORT...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
530 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2009

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 28 DEGREES WAS SET AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 34 SET IN 2007.

THE 28 DEGREES RECORDED AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM AIRPORT THIS
MORNING WAS THE COLDEST APRIL TEMPERATURE. THE PREVIOUS COLDEST
READING WAS 30 DEGREES SET IN 2008.

[jasons2k]

Here is an update from Jeff this morning:

Chances for severe weather returns to SE TX.

Moisture return is underway this morning as low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies forcing SE winds across TX. Gulf of Mexico was swept clean of good quality moisture behind the last cold frontal event...however moisture should make a rapid return to the western Gulf via the NW Caribbean Sea over the next 24 hours. Low level jet will increase to over 40kts helping to pull 60 degree dewpoints back into the region. Will break down the events by time periods.

Thursday:

Lead short wave/trough will eject far N across the central plains with a dry line feature developing across C TX and moving E during the afternoon hours. Decent low level moisture should be in place by midday Thursday under a stout low level capping inversion. While the capping looks tough to overcome, increasing moisture, a favorable jet stream position, and lift from the dry line may be just enough to break through the "lid" and release the surface energy. The current thinking is that storms will develop late in the afternoon along and E of I-35 where maximum surface heating and dry line lift erode the cap. Storms will likely congeal into a few line segments and track E to ENE into portions of SE TX. Feel the best chances are along and N of I-10 where capping is weakest. Main threats will be large hail and an isolated severe wind gust or two. SPC DAY 2 has a large part of the area in a slight risk...and while it includes a large area...the threat appears fairly isolated at this time.

Friday:

A weak cold front drops into the area and stalls roughly along US 59 early Friday morning. This boundary when combined with daytime heating will serve to produce showers and thunderstorms on Friday into early Saturday. Chances are fairly low..although embedded upper level disturbances in the SW flow aloft could create better chances...we will see how this period plays out.

Weekend (Easter Sunday):

Significant severe weather event looking increasingly likely Easter Sunday.

Powerful upper level trough will drop into the SW US Saturday and eject farther southward across TX on Sunday. Surface low track is from the Rio Grande plains across N TX placing much of TX in a favorable pattern of strong dynamics aloft. Old surface boundary along US 59 will quickly lift northward early Saturday as strong pressure falls move into far SW TX out of Mexico. Low level jet of 45-55kts will develop transporting deep tropical moisture into the state. Strong pressure falls will force surface low pressure to develop near Del Rio late Saturday and begin the track NE along the returning warm front. Entire region will be warm sectored with the air mass becoming increasingly unstable Saturday night into Sunday. The approach of the upper trough Sunday brings strong dynamics to bear across the region with shear increasing to over 50kts along with a 110kt jet streak in the base of the trough cutting from SW TX through SE TX. Forecasted wind profiles show good increase and turning with height suggesting good low level speed and directional shear.

Expect vigorous development of severe convection over SW TX late Saturday moving/developing eastward overnight. Expect isolated severe cells to grow upscale into a large MCS/squall line from S OK to SW TX by Sunday morning. Timing of the event places SE TX under the gun from early Sunday through late afternoon...adjustments in this will be needed over the next few days. Given the amounts of shear in place along with an unstable air mass all severe modes will be possible. SPC has already outlooked the area in the Day 4-8 period and as the time draws closer expect SPC to likely upgrade portions of the slight risk into a moderate risk due to the widespread nature of potential wind damage and tornadoes. This system deserves close watch...given the potential for widespread severe weather. Model run to run constancy with this system has been very good since late last week...so confidence is growing for a bumpy ride Sunday.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My amateur and unofficial discussion of new 12Z GFS and Resurrection Sunday severe outlook here.

But, copied and pasted, look at my quick look based on European web site data

SE Texas/Louisiana severe Sunday per Euro-

Good directional shear, the 30 to 40 knot low level jet predicted should be good enough for some severe, but I have seen stronger LLJs. All comes down to instability, I imagine, and whether there is low level instability.






I await Jeff Linder's professional opinion with great interest tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

HOU area not in updated SWODY2.


Neither GFS nor NAM shows much dryline development this far South.