Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
728 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 727 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
NICHOLSON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ILA...DANIELSVILLE...COLBERT...COMER AND CARLTON.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
732 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

GAC113-110000-
/O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0068.000000T0000Z-090411T0000Z/
FAYETTE GA-
732 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN
FAYETTE COUNTY...

AT 732 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE HORTON...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

&&

[Dave]

ANDERSON SC-
731 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
ANDERSON COUNTY...

AT 730 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANDY SPRINGS...OR
ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARTWELL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ANDERSON BY 750 PM EDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BARROW COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
EAST CENTRAL GWINNETT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 736 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF DACULA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
AUBURN...CARL...BRASELTON...HOSCHTON...WINDER...BETHLEHEM...
STATHAM...JEFFERSON AND ARCADE.

[Dave]

PAULDING GA-POLK GA-BARTOW GA-
737 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL BARTOW...EASTERN POLK AND NORTHERN PAULDING COUNTIES...

AT 737 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROCKMART...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
YORKVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...BRASWELL...BURNT HICKORY RIDGE...DALLAS...
NEW HOPE...HIRAM AND CROSS ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BARROW COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
EAST CENTRAL GWINNETT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 736 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF DACULA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
AUBURN...CARL...BRASELTON...HOSCHTON...WINDER...BETHLEHEM...
STATHAM...JEFFERSON AND ARCADE.

[CajunMama]

I've been away and did some speed reading thru the warnings. Nothing for Randolph county, GA is there? That's brent's neck of the woods.

[Dave]

I'm going to break for a little while.

[RL3AO]

A few stats.

57 tornado warnings in the past 3 hours

100 tornado warnings since 956 am CDT

[Dave]

I've been away and did some speed reading thru the warnings. Nothing for Randolph county, GA is there? That's brent's neck of the woods.

Haven't seen any for Brent..yet.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHERN OGLETHORPE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 749 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ATHENS...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WHITEHALL...HULL...WINTERVILLE...COLBERT...COMER AND CARLTON.

[Dave]

Now I'm going to break for alittle while...

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL...NRN/CNTRL GA...UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 134...135...

VALID 102334Z - 110030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 134...135...CONTINUES.

SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD
PROGRESS E/SEWD ACROSS SERN PORTION OF WW 134 INTO WW 135. LOCAL
AREAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WW 134 IN
AL. THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES /A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT/...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

AS OF 2330Z...NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED INTO
CNTRL/E-CNTRL AL AND NWRN GA...WITH A SHORT LINE SEGMENT CONSISTING
OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ACROSS N-CNTRL GA. DESPITE THE ONSET OF
STABILIZATION WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...A SWLY INFLUX OF UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD HELP OFFSET THIS TENDENCY
TO SOME EXTENT. MEANWHILE...AREA VWPS INDICATE A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TREND IN LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS ENLARGING ALREADY
VERY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS
SUCH...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 02-03Z.

..GRAMS.. 04/10/2009


ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON 32288612 32378751 32738739 33158667 33908593 34268490
34368377 34888281 35148226 35138134 34928092 34498107
33338211 32798288 32428409 32278476 32288612

[Brent]

I've been away and did some speed reading thru the warnings. Nothing for Randolph county, GA is there? That's brent's neck of the woods.

It's in AL actually, but we escaped. A huge supercell went over the northern end of the county but we didn't see much of anything here. There's another supercell off to the south now so we slid in between, nothing bad at all, and it's moving out now. Thanks for the concern.

I've been dealing with major computer problems today which is why I haven't been on much, nothing to do with the storms.

[CrazyC83]

Back to moderate risk (the cells cleared the high risk area), but that was extended out a bit to the east.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 110028

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
NRN/CNTRL GEORGIA INTO WRN SOUTH CAROLINA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN
GULF STATES THRU THE CAROLINAS....

...SOUTHEAST...
CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW MIGRATING ACROSS KENTUCKY/
TENNESSEE...AND ASSOCIATED 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING THROUGH
NORTHERN ALABAMA/GEORGIA...ARE IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. BUT...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY VIGOROUS INTO/ THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH STRONGEST LIFT STILL PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY
LATE TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS HAS REMAINED MEAGER...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER... DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW
EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO WESTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT THE
STRENGTH/ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW COULD ALLOW ANVIL
PRECIPITATION TO INTERFERE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR A TRANSITION
TO A DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITHIN A 50+ KT DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.

HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FARTHER TO THE SOUTH/
WEST...FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA
...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL
RIDGE...IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM...REMAINS A FOCUS FOR
DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS
PROBABLY WILL REMAIN THE CASE UNTIL THE PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVERTAKEN BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNTIL THIS OCCURS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD/EAST SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN A CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN CLOCKWISE
CURVED AND LARGE ACROSS THIS REGION...BENEATH STRONG WESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW...PROVIDING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR CLASSIC LONG
LIVED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES/ LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY.

..KERR.. 04/11/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0038Z (8:38PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[btangy]

Really nasty cell with probable tornado near Auburn, AL crossing I-85 right now. May be cycling as it passed really close to the NEXRAD and you could see the hook at really high resolution.

[srainhoutx]

I'm going to break for a little while.

Great job Dave.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SC...FAR SRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135...

VALID 110054Z - 110200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 135 CONTINUES.

SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN QLCS ACROSS UPSTATE SC/NERN GA SHOULD
PROGRESS EWD WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND HAIL. HOWEVER...THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS UNCERTAIN GIVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY. AREA DOWNSTREAM OF WW
135 IS BEING MONITORED FOR EITHER A NEW WW OR POSSIBLE WFO AREAL
EXTENSION.

AS 0045Z...RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTED A QLCS STRETCHING FROM CHEROKEE
COUNTY SC TO CLARKE COUNTY GA WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND
BOWING SEGMENTS. THE OVERALL TREND FOR A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE
SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. CURRENT QLCS TRACK SHOULD APPROACH THE ERN
EXTENT OF WW 135 AROUND 02Z. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE
FARTHER E AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES E OF ANSON COUNTY NC TO
ALLENDALE SC OWING TO AN APPARENT MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY NOTED
EARLIER ON VIS/RADAR IMAGERY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE QUITE LACKING E
OF THIS LINE /AS DEPICTED IN 00Z CHS RAOB/. THUS...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER A NEW WW WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED OR WHETHER A
WFO-AREAL EXTENSION OF A FEW COUNTIES IN CNTRL SC WILL BE NEEDED.

..GRAMS.. 04/11/2009


ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 35098152 35168040 34977945 34427927 33138027 32608115
32688203 33328254 34098255 34108244 35098152

[btangy]

Headed toward the S side of Columbus if it holds together. Looks like it's been cycling and it is quite isolated so it very well might.