Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1159 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT

* AT 1158 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES WEST OF
WESTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KIMBROUGH...LEVERETTS AND CENTERPOINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT
WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE.

[Dave]

I'm afraid to ask what the forecast is for the rest of the weekend!

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1205 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT

* AT 1205 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 24 MILES WEST OF
BARNWELL...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAYNESBORO...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SNELLING...KLINE AND HILDA.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1216 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CRISP COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 115 AM EDT

* AT 1215 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES WEST OF
CORDELE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WENONA AND ARABI.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 100 AM EDT

* AT 1217 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
KEYSVILLE...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROVETOWN...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BLYTHE

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1224 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 100 AM EDT

* AT 1220 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MILLETT...
OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BARNWELL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...
MILLETT...MARTIN...
APPLETON...BALDOCK...
SEIGLING...ULMER...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1226 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEESBURG...
EAST CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 115 AM EDT

* AT 1224 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 12 MILES WEST OF SMITHVILLE...OR 9 MILES NORTH
OF DAWSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SMITHVILLE BY 1240 AM EDT...
LEESBURG BY 1255 AM EDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like 12Z and new 0Z GFS fairly consistent on timing, location and strength of 500 mb features.


12Z


New 0Z


Assuming storms between 18Z and a little after 0Z on Sunday, near peak heating, are strongest (not always safe) Northeast Texas to Western Tennessee should be Sunday's main severe area.

AccuWx PPV rapid update SBCape, Total Totals and Sweat Index seem to suggest best severe a bit South of heaviest precip, maybe as far South as HOU area, which will be near Southern extent of precipitation shield, at 18Z, and extending Eastward and Northeastward during the afternoon.

We needed the rain, GFS now has HOU area between .25 and .5 inches of rain total this weekend.

[Dave]

Thanks Ed for the information above for sunday.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1243 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BEN HILL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FITZGERALD...
NORTHWESTERN IRWIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
NORTHEASTERN TURNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 130 AM EDT

* AT 1241 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF FITZGERALD...OR NEAR
CORDELE...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FITZGERALD BY 125 AM EDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN WILCOX COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 145 AM EDT

* AT 1244 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES WEST OF
PITTS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROCHELLE AND OWENSBORO.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1251 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN TURNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
NORTHERN WORTH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
EAST CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 130 AM EDT

* AT 1246 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF PHILEMA...OR 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LEESBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PHILEMA BY 105 AM EDT...
OAKFIELD AND WARWICK BY 110 AM EDT...
DAVIS MILL BY 115 AM EDT...
DOLES BY 120 AM EDT...
CUFFIETOWN BY 125 AM EDT...
OAK GROVE...HARMONY...WORTH AND 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DAKOTA BY 130
AM EDT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope this winds down soon, my bedtime, and worse for people in EDT, well past their bedtime when they would miss all warnings unless prepared with a NOAA weather radio.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN GA/PARTS OF SRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135...136...

VALID 110449Z - 110545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 135...136...CONTINUES.

LOCAL SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 135
AND 136.

LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE
THREAT -- ALONG THE ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT -- NOW MOVING
ACROSS SERN AL/CENTRAL GA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY-SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS.
WHILE BOTH WATCHES WERE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 11/05Z...WATCH 135 IS
BEING EXTENDED LOCALLY BY AREA WFOS TO COVER THE LINGERING THREAT.

..GOSS.. 04/11/2009


ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON 31988487 32148496 33028352 33448063 31908252 31988487

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Edit to remove Valdosta, GA radar link. Nothing to see anymore.

[Dave]

That's it for me tonight. Long day and I'm beat. See ya!

[srainhoutx]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

..PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF MURFREESBORO TORNADO SURVEY

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ASSESSMENT TEAM IS SURVEYING DAMAGE IN
RUTHERFORD COUNTY TODAY. THE PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM AN AERIAL
SURVEY INDICATE THE TORNADO THAT IMPACTED MURFREESBORO HAD A PATH
LENGTH OF 15 MILES...BEGINNING APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES SOUTHWEST AND
ENDING 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF MURFREESBORO. THE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH OF
THE TORNADO WAS A HALF MILE. THE PRELIMINARY STRENGTH OF THE TORNADO
IS BEING RATED AS EF3...WITH WINDS OF 136 MPH TO 165 MPH. ADDITIONAL
SURVEYING ON THE GROUND WILL BE DONE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINAL
RESULTS WILL BE MADE AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

..PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF MURFREESBORO TORNADO SURVEY

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ASSESSMENT TEAM IS SURVEYING DAMAGE IN
RUTHERFORD COUNTY TODAY. THE PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM AN AERIAL
SURVEY INDICATE THE TORNADO THAT IMPACTED MURFREESBORO HAD A PATH
LENGTH OF 15 MILES...BEGINNING APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES SOUTHWEST AND
ENDING 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF MURFREESBORO. THE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH OF
THE TORNADO WAS A HALF MILE. THE PRELIMINARY STRENGTH OF THE TORNADO
IS BEING RATED AS EF3...WITH WINDS OF 136 MPH TO 165 MPH. ADDITIONAL
SURVEYING ON THE GROUND WILL BE DONE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINAL
RESULTS WILL BE MADE AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

Dr. Forbes on TWC last night discussing video said he was seeing a lot of EF-2, and some EF-3, damage.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS suggests storms firing in Central/South Central Texas this afternoon on the returning 850 mb front. Soundings show a stable layer near surface, but decent mid-level lapse rates. A little speed shear aloft, not great directional shear, severe threat may be limited, as mid-level lapse rates don't look quite sharp enough to really support severe without help.


Midland, Texas, near the Southern edge of the GFS forecasted rain late this afternooon, looks favorable for all modes of severe if discrete cells can form with the weak cap in place. Further North, surface based instability looks to limit the tornado threat. Hail would be main mode.



1630 SWODY1 seems to agree with placement of tornado risk area today.

[srainhoutx]

17:30Z SWODY 2 "hinting" a Moderate Risk tomorrow (SETX/LA) into Monday(MS)...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OK AND CNTRL TX EWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS ENEWD TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEYS. AS THIS
OCCURS...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN EMBEDDED...STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL ROTATE EWD THROUGH OK/TX BEFORE LIFTING MORE
NNEWD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION EARLY
IN THE PERIOD OVER THE TX PNHDL BEFORE DEVELOPING EWD ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW /LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM/ IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER ERN TX
ALONG RETREATING MARINE/WARM FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING
NNEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND MS DELTA REGION TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE MS AND OH RIVERS BY MONDAY MORNING.

...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

LONGER LOOPS OF GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A PLUME OF
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR HAS BEEN DRAWN NWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO LEAD SYNOPTIC SYSTEM NOW DEPARTING THE ERN
SEABOARD. A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE NWD
TRANSPORT OF THIS AIR MASS THROUGH ERN TX/LA AND MS. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH A RESIDUAL EML TO SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING
1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR.

CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY
MORNING FROM N-CNTRL TX TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST WITHIN ZONE OF
INCREASING DCVA AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA. SRN EXTENSION OF ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED BY MID MORNING AS
DEEPENING...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HASTENS THE NWD RETREAT OF MARINE
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL
INCREASE...NAMELY ALONG SECONDARY LOW TRACK WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG /0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT/. THIS ENHANCED
TORNADO THREAT WILL DEVELOP FROM SERN TX NEWD THROUGH NRN/CNTRL LA
INTO THE MS DELTA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
A FEW SIGNIFICANT EVENTS. AS SUCH...A MODERATE RISK MAY HAVE TO BE
CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE OUTLOOKS. OTHERWISE...HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WITH ANY SUPERCELLS/BOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

...OK/N TX...

WHILE SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN LOCATION OF OCCLUDED SURFACE
FRONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER N TX INTO OK...THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL COLD CORE /I.E. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -22 C/ WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATE
PROFILES WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...BOTH NAM AND
GFS SIMULATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT NOSE OF MIDLEVEL
DRYSLOT WILL ROTATE NNEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THESE
INSTABILITY FORECASTS.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALONG OCCLUDED BOUNDARY FROM THE TX PNHDL ESEWD ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN OK INTO NRN TX. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT INTO EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH
THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.

..MEAD.. 04/11/2009

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope that holds off until after about Noon, as our Mass should get out around 11:15 to 11:30.


Of course, since our two car garage hasn't been organized in a while, my 2007 Impala stays in the driveway, and no time is a good time for hail. SWODY1 extends hail probs all the way to SETX for the pre-dawn hours.



The good thing about HOU, as compared to when I lived in the Metroplex, while severe hail is an every year event there, I think I've seen hail about 3 or 4 times in a decade, the latest this year but pea sized at best, and only once, (from a classic supercell I drove into coming up I-45 on my way home from work, which maybe I shouldn't have, as I could see what probably was a lowered base at the back (SW) corner of the cell) have I seen hail that was clearly severe. I was amazed the windshield didn't crack, as loud as that was.


I've seen more tropical cyclones here than I've seen hail storms, which says something about Houston being a low risk hail city.

[TexasSam]

We had the golf ball size hail here a few years ago on Mother's Day. All of us neighbors and friends did the cook out today since it seems Easter could be a very nasty day.