Invest 99 map Updates 5PM EDT

Scott_inVA · #1 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 4:13 pm

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Note NOGAPS
Hmmmmm :?:

Scott

GulfBreezer · #2 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 4:22 pm

HHmmm

is right! Either they are missing something big time or ALL the others are missing something, the odds are that NOGAPS has hit the pipe once too often this go around!

JetMaxx · #3 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 5:01 pm

The NOGAPS scenario is possible...but very unlikely IMO.
If it develops, this system could be a threat to the eastern Carolinas...especially the Outer Banks of North Carolina. As I said in another post....from Myrtle Beach northward (especially as far north as (Chesepeake Bay), I'd keep a close eye on it.

Thanks so much for the model graphics and the WREL website Scott.....it's totally awesome as always!

PW

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 5:45 pm

There doesn't appear to be much there any more. The convection has all died out. It's just an area of scattered showers. By the time it COULD develop into anything (36-48hrs) it may be well past the Carolinas and heading NNE-NE and out to sea. NOGAPS appears to be in la-la land.

chadtm80 · #5 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 6:10 pm

I agree with you 110% on this one wxman.. I dont think it will develope AT ALL, but if it were to develop it would already be well on its way out to sea..

Ya, nogaps must of hit the bottle a lil to much last night

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 6:11 pm

What we have to worrie much more is that wave emerging africa.

JetMaxx · #7 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 6:28 pm

cycloneye wrote:What we have to worrie much more is that wave emerging africa.

Most definitely Luis....it has much more potential to eventually become a serious hurricane than Invest99.

Thunder44 · #8 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 7:11 pm

I would be more concerned with Invest 99L than the CV wave cuz it so much closer to the US. How many times have we seen this before this season? "The most impressive wave to come off the African coast" See such convection and organziation coming off the coast only to lose as it moves further into the Atlantic. It's it still early for CV development. I think we should just watch and see before getting too excited, if the convection holds up once it's further west then, we can get more excited about this thing developing. And if it does develop, it would still be thousands of miles away from land.

Just cuz Invest 99L doesn't look impressive right now, doesn't mean it won't be later tonight or tomorrow. If the system does develop it can get crankin' quickly as conditions becoming more favorable around it. I also don't think it's likely that it will go out to sea.

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 7:17 pm

I agree with you Thunder. The convection moving off the African coast is approximately 3,450 miles from San Juan, Puerto; giving us plenty of time to watch what ever comes of it.

Invest 99L is just about in the same place the last several days, looked more impressive today than it did yesterday (Sunday). The direction of movement with this feature (like most tropical disturbances/cyclones) in the Bahamas isn't even etched in stone. As I mentioned in another thread the frontal system to Invest 99L's northwest and north is already down to Washington D.C.'s latitude.

JetMaxx · #10 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 7:56 pm

Thunder44...that's why I stated that folks along the East Coast from Myrtle Beach to Chesepeake Bay should keep an eye on it....BUT the new t-wave in the far eastern Atlantic has a MUCH better chance of EVENTUALLY becoming a major hurricane.

I'll honestly be very surprised if 99L ever becomes more than a weak tropical storm...but there is ALWAYS the outside chance...which is why coastal residents should monitor it; but the odds of it becoming a major hurricane are <1% (there's never been a landfalling major East Coast hurricane in July).

The t-wave near the African Coast COULD become a serious hurricane -- BECAUSE global models are suggesting it, meaning confidence is higher than normal for late July/ early August.

PW

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 8:06 pm

Sorry to disagree here guys, but I do not think that anyone needs to worry about 99L any longer. What is left of it is already starting to be sheared NE by the approaching front/trough. It will soon be caught up in the NE flow in front of the trough and head out to sea, imo. Besides that, I haven't seen one model pick up on this feature yet.

What Nogaps is doing I have no idea. I find it surprising since Nogaps usually does pretty well with TC's. The scenario it is portraying is possible, but not very likely. It looks almost like it is trying to split the difference between the NE end of the surface trough and the ULL and bring it around the Southern edge of the ridge that will come in behind the trough, if it reaches that far south, which is doubtful this time of year.

As for the wave coming off of Africa-Yes it has a long way to go and some semi-hostile conditions to move through to get to the islands and Caribbean, much less the GOM as portrayed by the GFS. However, it has been in somewhat hostile conditions for several days over the continent of Africa and has continued to "strengthen" and now looks somewhat formidable, even for a CV "season" wave coming off the coast. It is imo, one we must continue to watch until it either fishes, develops or dies altogether.

Just my 2 cents worth.

Stormsfury · #12 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 9:23 pm

I, myself, am not very concerned either, with Invest 99L ...

Even if it does develop, it would need 36 hours at LEAST to organize to classify (it just looks ugly) ... look at satellite loop imagery ... watch earlier what happened with the thunderstorm tops over South Carolina ... blown westward ... though shear is expected to relax some, the models have somewhat overprogged these shear relaxations ... and with another shot of the ECT (East Coast Trough) re-amplifying, I don't think the shear will relax quite as much as the models advertise.
The remnants of Tropical Depression #7 exited off the SC Coast as a diffuse trough likely this morning and there's another s/w trough somewhere between the coast and the invest. Furthermore, the east coast trough which has been quite persistant is digging down once again, and if anything were to even organize, it would likely be driven NNE away from the coast. I cannot figure what happened to the NOGAPS.

My "eyes" are more concerned with the ITCZ and specifically, the wave coming off of Africa ...

SF

Thunder44 · #13 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 9:30 pm

I don't trust the models on tropical cyclone until there is actually one. I suspect we won't see significant development of the CV wave until gets past 50W. I doubt this would be a big hurricane till then. The water is just that very warm in the Central and Eastern Atlantic (80 to 82 degrees) and there is alot of subsidence just north of the ITCZ. But I definitely agree it must be watched as well.

rainstorm · #14 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 9:48 pm

is coming off africa, the ull in the central atlantic is coming back. it could be a serious impediment to development. shear?

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 9:59 pm

rainstorm wrote:is coming off africa, the ull in the central atlantic is coming back. it could be a serious impediment to development. shear?

Doubt it ... the ULL will likely be driven westward also ...

ColdFront77 · #16 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 11:59 pm

If that is the case... The National Hurricane Center should change their Tropical Weather Outlook about the chances of Invest 99L developing.

Invest 99 map Updates 5PM EDT

Invest 99 map Updates 5PM EDT

99L

about the same time the wave

Re: about the same time the wave

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