Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

[CrazyC83]

Seems like the atmosphere is following the religious calendar - today (from late last night to late tonight) is seen as a "break" in the Easter period, and Mother Nature is looking at it the same way before refiring tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Severe watch up for area covered by MCD (Western Permian Basin)

Not on SPC page yet.


NWS page

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NMC015-025-120400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0139.090411T2020Z-090412T0400Z/

NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

EDDY LEA
$$



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC003-017-033-079-103-105-115-135-165-173-219-227-279-301-303-
305-317-329-371-383-389-443-445-461-475-495-501-120400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0139.090411T2020Z-090412T0400Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDREWS BAILEY BORDEN
COCHRAN CRANE CROCKETT
DAWSON ECTOR GAINES
GLASSCOCK HOCKLEY HOWARD
LAMB LOVING LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND
PECOS REAGAN REEVES
TERRELL TERRY UPTON
WARD WINKLER YOAKUM
$$


ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dewpoint only 44ºF at Ft Stockton, but rising, already 50ºF at Midland. FST has 25 mps sustained Southerly winds, and an air temp of 81ºF at what is probably a bit before 2 pm true solar time.

[HURAKAN]

[srainhoutx]

Severe watch up for area covered by MCD (Western Permian Basin)

Not on SPC page yet.


NWS page

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NMC015-025-120400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0139.090411T2020Z-090412T0400Z/

NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

EDDY LEA
$$



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC003-017-033-079-103-105-115-135-165-173-219-227-279-301-303-
305-317-329-371-383-389-443-445-461-475-495-501-120400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0139.090411T2020Z-090412T0400Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDREWS BAILEY BORDEN
COCHRAN CRANE CROCKETT
DAWSON ECTOR GAINES
GLASSCOCK HOCKLEY HOWARD
LAMB LOVING LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND
PECOS REAGAN REEVES
TERRELL TERRY UPTON
WARD WINKLER YOAKUM
$$


ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...

[CrazyC83]

From this description, I'd say Murfreesboro was an EF5:

000
NOUS44 KOHX 112323 CCA
PNSOHX
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-121200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

...ADDITIONAL RESULTS OF MURFREESBORO TORNADO SURVEY...
...SURVEY WILL BE COMPLETED SUNDAY...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT TEAM COMPLETED AN
AERIAL SURVEY OF DAMAGE TODAY FROM THE FRIDAY, APRIL 10 TORNADO IN
RUTHERFORD COUNTY. THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE END
OF BRET HAYNES ROAD OR APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MURFREESBORO. THE LAST EVIDENCE OF TORNADO DAMAGE WAS NEAR LOFTON
ROAD JUST SOUTH OF LANCASSAS PIKE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MURFREESBORO. THE MAXIMUM DAMAGE PATH WIDTH OF NEARLY 1/2 MILE WAS
NOTED JUST EAST OF I-24.

THE TORNADO TRACKED DUE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST 9 MILES THEN BEGAN A
STEADY TURN TO THE RIGHT. BY THE TIME THE TORNADO LIFTED IT WAS
MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...VIDEOS OF THE TORNADO
INDICATED A MULTIPLE VORTEX APPEARANCE TO THE TORNADO AND THE AERIAL
SURVEY WAS ABLE TO DETECT FOCUSED AREAS OF DAMAGE WITHIN THE LARGER
PATH.

THE AERIAL SURVEY REVEALED 12 TO 15 HOMES WHICH WERE COMPLETED
DESTROYED AND DOZENS OTHERS WHICH SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.
A 2-STORY OFFICE BUILDING HAD THE COMPLETE UPPER FLOOR REMOVED.
NUMEROUS LARGE VEHICLES WERE PICKED UP AND TOSSED...INCLUDING
SEVERAL SEMI TRAILERS WHICH WOUND UP PILED TOGETHER NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THOMPSON LANE AND BROAD STREET.

A GROUND SURVEY WAS THEN BEGUN TO DETERMINE TORNADO INTENSITY.
DAMAGE ALONG THE TORNADO PATH WAS PRIMARILY EF2 WITH SIGNIFICANT
ROOF DAMAGE AND SOME WALL COLLAPSE ON HOMES. THERE WERE POCKETS OF
EF3 DAMAGE WHERE WELL BUILT HOMES SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT EXTERIOR AND
INTERIOR WALL FAILURE.

THERE WERE 3 AREAS SURVEYED TODAY WHICH HAD THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE. THE FIRST AREA WAS ALONG BUSHNELL DRIVE JUST NORTH OF
COMPTON ROAD. A WELL BUILT 2-STORY BRICK HOME WAS ALMOST COMPLETELY
DESTROYED WITH JUST PART OF A KITCHEN WALL REMAINING STANDING. THE
2ND AREA WAS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HAYNES DRIVE AND SULPHUR
SPRINGS ROAD. 3 HOMES ON CORNWALL COURT WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED
AND THROWN CLEAR OF THEIR SLAB FOUNDATIONS...HOWEVER IT DID NOT
APPEAR ANY OF THE HOMES WAS PROPERLY ANCHORED.

THE THIRD AREA OF ENHANCED DAMAGE WAS ALONG BATTLEGROUND DRIVE
BETWEEN D`ANN DRIVE AND TOMAHAWK TRACE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ASSESSMENT TEAM WAS JOINED BY A MURFREESBORO CODE
ENFORCEMENT OFFICER WHO ASSISTED WITH ASSESSING CONSTRUCTION QUALITY
AT THIS LOCATION. 3 HOMES WERE COMPLETELY BLOWN CLEAR OF THEIR
FOUNDATIONS AND DESTROYED. 1 HOME WAS NOT PROPERLY
ANCHORED/FASTENED TO THE FOUNDATION...HOWEVER THE OTHER 2 WERE VERY
WELL CONSTRUCTED. SEVERAL TREES WERE ALSO DEBARKED AT THIS
LOCATION. THIS DAMAGE MAY EXCEED EF-3 INTENSITY ONCE THE SURVEY IS
COMPLETE.

THE SURVEY WAS SUSPENDED AS THE REST OF THE DAMAGE PATH WAS
INACCESSIBLE ON THE GROUND. THE SURVEY WILL BE COMPLETED ON SUNDAY
AND A FINAL REPORT AND DAMAGE RATING RELEASED.

PICTURES AND ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT...

http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NASHVILLE

$$

SUMMARY (TIMES BASED ON RADAR)...

STRENGTH...AT LEAST EF3
PATH LENGTH...15 MILES
WIDTH...MAXIMUM ALMOST 1/2 MILE
TOUCHDOWN TIME...1233 PM
TORNADO END TIME...1255 PM
BEGIN LAT/LON...35.8167 -86.5277
END LAT/LON...35.9145 -86.2789

TOM JOHNSTONE
WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE

[srainhoutx]

And so the action begins tonight...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
743 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN GLASSCOCK COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL MIDLAND COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 742 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
SPRABERRY...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF STANTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

Large cuplet with this cell...

[srainhoutx]

New WW coming out...



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
740 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 740 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN
ANGELO TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 139...

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WITH SIGNIFICANT HAIL IN THE MIDLAND AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EWD TOWARD THE ABI-SJT CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NM/FAR W TX. INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER W THIS EVENING...BUT
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTENING WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
811 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN STERLING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 808 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER NORTH
CENTRAL GLASSCOCK COUNTY...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF GARDEN CITY...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHWESTERN STERLING COUNTY THROUGH 915 PM CDT

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
811 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HAIL MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL A 31.94N 102.19W
04/11/2009 E2.50 INCH MIDLAND TX NWS EMPLOYEE

TWO AND A HALF INCH HAIL REPORTED AT THE MIDLAND NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
829 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 826 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 37 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LORAINE...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG SPRING...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
LORAINE...

[CrazyC83]

It looks like the atmosphere is responding back just as we get set for Easter. Tomorrow has a lot of unknowns though.

[CrazyC83]

I overheard on another board that they are looking at EF4 for Murfreesboro. From my own view of the description, I would say EF5, but I haven't seen the pictures. (Blown away well-built homes = EF5, but that may be a bit too much)

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
920 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GLASSCOCK COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 919 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GARDEN
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
EASTERN GLASSCOCK COUNTY...

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW...W CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139...140...

VALID 120209Z - 120345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
139...140...CONTINUES.

REMNANT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PECOS VALLEY REMAINS A
FOCUS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MIXED LAYER
CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...BUT
SUFFICIENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS. 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADVECTION OF STORMS TOWARD THE SAN ANGELO/ABILENE AREA...BUT
THE NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN STABLE...AND STORMS LIKELY WILL BECOME ROOTED WITHIN A
BROADER ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PECOS VALLEY REGION WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 03-04Z...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO COOL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ELEVATED RETURN FLOW...TO THE NORTH OF A
LINGERING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF SAN
ANGELO TOWARD 06Z. AS THIS OCCURS...A REINVIGORATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
BUT...WITH TIME...HEAVY RAIN MAY BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT THREAT IN
BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

..KERR.. 04/12/2009


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[Jagno]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
316 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-122030-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
316 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MAKE NAVIGATION DIFFICULT FOR SMALLER
VESSELS TONIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES...POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...A FEW SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND A MODERATE RISK OUTLOOK MAY BE ISSUED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

IN ADDITION...HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL ALSO RESULT
HIGH RAINFALL RATES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP TUNED TO
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS DURING THIS EASTER HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO STAY INFORMED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE
REQUIRED ON SUNDAY IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

$$

BRAZZELL

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tornado threat winding down now, but storms were rough near MAF.


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
823 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG ODESSA 31.85N 102.37W
04/11/2009 ECTOR TX BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOFS RIPPED OF BUILDINGS AND DAMAGE TO TREES AND CARS IN
NORTH ODESSA.


&&

$$

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
811 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HAIL MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL A 31.94N 102.19W
04/11/2009 E2.50 INCH MIDLAND TX NWS EMPLOYEE

TWO AND A HALF INCH HAIL REPORTED AT THE MIDLAND NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

&&

$$

MSCHULDT


I hope the NWS at MAF have covered parking, 2.5 inches probably can ding automotive sheet metal.


I think, but am not completely confident, in my amateur opinion which isn't official anyway, that the worst severe weather threat tomorrow should mainly be North of I-10 in Texas and Louisiana, probably sparing Houston, but East Texas and the Northern 3/4's of Louisiana will have an active day, especially late morning through mid evening.

See SE TX/SW LA thread for some of my unofficial and amateur reasoning, and caveats about using 6 hour time steps and nationwide scale maps.

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AR INTO FAR WESTERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121213Z - 121345Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL AR...AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN
MS...THROUGH MID MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND OF ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS HAS
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL AR EARLY THIS
MORNING...LIKELY TIED TO A MOISTURE SURGE AROUND 850 MB COINCIDENT
WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD RETREAT OF AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BASED AROUND/ABOVE 850 MB PER THE 12Z
SHREVEPORT OBSERVED RAOB...AMPLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY /2000+ J PER KG
MUCAPE PER 12Z SHV/ AND FAVORABLE SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER WILL SUPPORT ROTATING ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

..GUYER.. 04/12/2009


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121239Z - 121345Z

SURFACE BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA. A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SOON.

SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN COMMON ALONG THE UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN INTO LA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A PRE-COLD FRONTAL
BROKEN SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. IN ADDITION...A RECENT UPSWING IN
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE GULF ABOUT 40 S OF BPT. AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL CROSSING TX...MODEST EARLY DAY
HEATING AND STEADY INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH
NORTHWARD SPREADING WARM FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPSWING IN TSTM
COVERAGE/VIGOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA BY MID/LATE
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERNS DO REMAIN REGARDING THE DEGREE OF
CAPPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPSTREAM LARGE SCALE FORCING PER 12Z CRP
RAOB. REGARDLESS...GIVEN INCREASING SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT...A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/RATHER FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED SOON.

..GUYER.. 04/12/2009


ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 28729559 30199585 31209469 31269253 30659139 30049127
29539150 29549365 28729559

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 121232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE TX INTO PARTS OF LA AND
MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM CNTRL TX INTO PARTS OF OK/AR AND THE LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. AS
UPR LOW EVOLVES OVER THE GULF OF ME AND NM UPR LOW CONTINUES E/NE
INTO THE PLNS. THE NM SYSTEM SHOULD REACH NW OK THIS EVE...BEFORE
TURNING NE INTO ERN KS EARLY MON. 110 KT JET STREAK IN BASE OF
TROUGH SHOULD OVERSPREAD NE TX LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE
SUBTROPICAL JET IS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED SLIGHTLY S AND E ACROSS THE
NWRN GULF.

AT THE SFC...MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW NOW OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD
EDGE SLOWLY E ALONG THE RED RVR VLY LATER TODAY...AND REACH THE
ARKLATEX EARLY MON. FARTHER SE...A SEPARATE WAVE MAY FORM LATER
THIS MORNING NEAR INTERSECTION OF OVERNIGHT NNE/SSW-ORIENTED TX SQLN
WITH SHALLOW WARM FRONT OVER THE UPR TX CSTL PLN. THE WAVE SHOULD
CONTINUE NE INTO NRN MS EARLY MON.

...SE TX INTO LWR MS VLY...
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA SHOW A BROAD AREA OF RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA
1.25 INCHES/ EXTENDING WNW ACROSS THE TX GULF CSTL PLN FROM THE
WRN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD FARTHER N
AND...WITH TIME...NE INTO THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS
40-50 KT SLY LLJ SHIFTS SLOWLY E AHEAD OF NM UPR TROUGH.

SHALLOW WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLL ESE THROUGH HOU/GLS
INTO THE NWRN GULF SHOULD MOVE STEADILY NE ACROSS SE TX AND
SRN/CNTRL LA AS COLD POOL-ASSISTED SQLN CONTINUES GENERALLY E ACROSS
CNTRL AND E TX.

COMBINATION OF MODEST SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW MAY
SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE REGION TO ALLOW EXISTING ELEVATED
SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OVER SE TX AND THE NWRN GULF TO BECOME NEARLY
SFC-BASED BY LATE THIS MORNING. OTHER NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS MAY
FORM BY EARLY AFTN INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN LA. AT THE SAME
TIME...SFC HEATING AND EWD PROGRESSION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH NM UPR
VORT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OF STORMS WITHIN SRN END OF
SQLN NOW OVER CNTRL TX. FARTHER N...SCTD ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL
MAY SPREAD NWD WITH 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...AR
AND MS.

WIND PROFILES ACROSS SE TX AND LA WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...WITH 40+ KT SLY LLJ VEERING TO 60+ KT SW FLOW
AT 500 MB. COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPR DIFFLUENCE N OF
SUBTROPICAL JET...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO SVR HAIL/WIND. QUESTIONS DO REMAIN REGARDING OVERALL
DEGREE OF SVR THREAT GIVEN /1/ PRESENCE OF EML CAP THAT COULD LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR WAA STORMS TO BECOME SUSTAINED/SFC-BASED...AND /2/
LIKELY PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
SQLN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST STRONG
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS FROM SE TX INTO PARTS OF LA AND SRN/WRN MS...A
MDT RISK APPEARS JUSTIFIED.

ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND
EVE FROM SE TX INTO SRN/CNTRL LA...A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES
AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY MON FROM SE LA
INTO SRN/ERN MS AND WRN AL.

...N TX/SRN OK...
BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND RAIN/TSTMS OVER CNTRL TX/OK...A SEPARATE
AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM BENEATH UPR LOW DRY SLOT AS IT CROSSES THE
RED RVR VLY. HEATING BENEATH MID LVL COLD POOL SHOULD YIELD 500 TO
1000 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH AMPLE LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WLY SHEAR OVER THE RED RVR VLY AREA S OF UPR
LOW...A FEW STRONG/ORGANIZED STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
DMGG WIND. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/12/2009

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