SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR DOWNTOWN HOUSTON... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAN
JACINTO STATE PARK...MINUTE MAID PARK...LAKE HOUSTON DAM...
SHELDON...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS...GALENA PARK...CROSBY...
CLOVERLEAF...CHANNELVIEW...BARRETT AND ALDINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



I hope not...

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1153 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1122 AM HAIL 6 E KATY 29.80N 95.72W
04/12/2009 M0.88 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT INTERSTATE 10 AND FRY ROAD

1127 AM HAIL 7 E KATY 29.80N 95.71W
04/12/2009 M0.75 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNEY SIZED HAIL AT FM 529 AND GREENHOUSE ROAD

[Ed Mahmoud]

The real tornado show should be the cells starting to pop ahead of the line around Beaumont as they move inland...





As noted above, I have analyzed in my amateur way a boundary between LFT and ARA, or near Highway 90, that may serve as a focus for severe weather.

[jasons2k]

Shot at 2009-04-12

[jasons2k]

Shot at 2009-04-12

[Ed Mahmoud]

Shot at 2009-04-12

There is some rotation, at least aloft, visible from LCH radar on the Eastern Harris Cell.

[jasons2k]

It's gonna be nice when it moves out though:


Shot at 2009-04-12

[Tireman4]

Oh my yes. Hot sweaty run this morning...cool dry run this evening.

[southerngale]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1253 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WILDWOOD...THICKET...SOUR LAKE...
SILSBEE...SARATOGA...KOUNTZE...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THICKET
TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF LIBERTY TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERTY...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
THICKET AND SARATOGA BY 105 PM CDT...
WILDWOOD BY 120 PM CDT...
KOUNTZE BY 125 PM CDT...
SOUR LAKE BY 130 PM CDT...
SILSBEE BY 140 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

[JenBayles]

I see our tornado watch for Harris County has been canceled. Lots of sun here in Bear Creek and little wind.

[CajunMama]

Getting ready to get nasty over here. It shouldn't last too long as it appears these storms are movin at a pretty good clip.

[BreinLa]

Sure is blowing out there sheeesh

[CajunMama]

Looks like it fizzled a good bit before getting to us in the southern part of the parish for which i'm thankful. Northern part of the parish and st. landry parish got the heavy stuff.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Radar shows between .6 and 1 inches in the area, which matches almost perfectly two closest obs, DWH and IAH, so a beautiful clear sky, perfect BBQ weather, and some much needed rain.

[jasons2k]

I got .45" from the storms today.

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see some "hints" from model guidance the first real significant chance of rain for parts of TX that have endured a long drought situation. HGX mentions in morning AFD some fairly hefty totals for later in the week...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE RED
RIVER JUST WEST OF PARIS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST TOWARD DEL RIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT
OKLAHOMA CITY TO MARFA. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY
CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
IS SCARCE...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CLEAR
SKIES AND WET GROUNDS WILL YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS PIVOTING INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND COASTAL ZONES. BENIGN AND SEASONAL WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATE WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT. PW VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.8 INCHES ON THURSDAY AND PWS STAY BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRIGGER EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. ON
SATURDAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS DIVERGENT BUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIE IN A
STRONG RIGHT REAR QUAD...SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ON SUNDAY. CANADIAN/ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH NOGAPS AND ECMWF KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND A
STRONG RIGHT REAR QUAD IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
PROLONGED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH 3-4 DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES AND SOME ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 INCHES. 43

Five Day QPF Totals...



With a week of exterior work ahead, I hope that things will hold off just a bit.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Whoooo-Hooooo!


Too bad about the threat for the weekend, but if I mow tomorrow, it should all be good, and it looks like it could clear out in time for the weekend.

ETA:
The only benefit of daylight savings, being able to mow after work.

[jasons2k]

I'll have to keep a close watch on this as I have company coming into town for the Spring Crawfish Festival. We're supposed to go on Saturday. Oh well, it could be worse - it could be cold.

I love Daylight Savings Time. I cannot stand driving home/getting home in the dark.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll have to keep a close watch on this as I have company coming into town for the Spring Crawfish Festival. We're supposed to go on Saturday. Oh well, it could be worse - it could be cold.

I love Daylight Savings Time. I cannot stand driving home/getting home in the dark.

Sun is just starting to come up, twilight-ish now as I leave for work. Rising sun in my eyes on Beltway 8 as I head for 45 or the Hardy. The Hardy needs a real off-ramp Southbound, but I digress.

Couple of weeks ago, most of my drive in was in the dark.


Lawnmowing in sunlight on a weekday is the only real plus. 0Z GFS now runs after my bedtime...

[srainhoutx]

SPC now has our area in the extended Convective Outlook for Friday and Saturday.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS DURING
THE DAY4-6 TIME FRAME...PRIMARILY DUE TO A STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE THAT
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN OVER THE MS/OH VALLEY REGION LATE. SLOW MOVING
NATURE OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LESS PREDICTABILITY
REGARDING TIMING OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND MCS/S WILL LIKELY EVOLVE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...PROPAGATING ACROSS MORE BUOYANT REGIONS EFFECTIVELY
OVERTURNING LARGE AREAS OF INSTABILITY. EVEN SO IT APPEARS ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SCNTRL U.S. AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEYOND THE DAY5 PERIOD ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF STATES AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTION/INSTABILITY WILL HOLD OFF
SPREADING OUTLOOK DOWNSTREAM FOR NOW.

..DARROW.. 04/14/2009

HGX thoughs this morning...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A RAINY PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR SE TX LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PUSH ONCE MORE ACROSS THE
STATE BY THURSDAY. THE MODELS DIFFERED IN THE FIRST FOUR DAYS AND
WENT MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THE FASTER NAM
SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY...AND THEN THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PLEASANT WARM DAY ACROSS SE TX TODAY.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST
COAST STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER CA TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY AND MAY GET HELD
UP BY THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THE
FASTER NAM IS CORRECT...SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE A POSSIBILITY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. GOING WITH A CONSENSUS
OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
PUTS OFF THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL PW/S OR QPF OUTPUT INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT AND MOST AREAS OF SE TX SHOULD
EXPERIENCE BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
WENT WITH THE GFS HANDLING OF THE COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT ON SUNDAY.