These morning supercells if they develop could be extremely dangerous, especially with this being Easter Sunday and an even greater number than usual at church (in those areas, a large majority of the population).
What would "easter egg" sized hail be?
Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April
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srainhoutx
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Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SW LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 143...
VALID 121553Z - 121800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 143 CONTINUES.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SERN TX PORTION OF WW NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SW LA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
FORCED LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NERN TX SWWD TO THE CNTRL TX
COASTAL AREA JUST WEST OF PALACIOS. A COASTAL FRONT HAS ADVANCED
INLAND AND EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN TX TO SW LA JUST
NORTH OF LAKE CHARLES. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXISTS IN WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...AN EML HAS ADVECTED EWD ABOVE THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN A CAP. THIS SUGGEST IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO INITIATE SURFACE BASED STORMS AWAY FROM THE FORCED LINE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS....ESPECIALLY GIVEN PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND TENDENCY FOR STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
IMPULSE OVER NE TX TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION.
MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH THE EWD ADVANCING
LINE WHERE MESOSCALE LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP. DUE TO
THE NATURE OF THE FORCING...DOMINANT MODE MAY REMAIN LINEAR.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY FROM 300-400 M2/S2 FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A
RISK OF TORNADOS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE FOR
STORMS TO INITIATE FARTHER EAST ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
EXTENDING INLAND AWAY FROM THE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SW LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 143...
VALID 121553Z - 121800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 143 CONTINUES.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SERN TX PORTION OF WW NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SW LA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
FORCED LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NERN TX SWWD TO THE CNTRL TX
COASTAL AREA JUST WEST OF PALACIOS. A COASTAL FRONT HAS ADVANCED
INLAND AND EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN TX TO SW LA JUST
NORTH OF LAKE CHARLES. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXISTS IN WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...AN EML HAS ADVECTED EWD ABOVE THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN A CAP. THIS SUGGEST IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO INITIATE SURFACE BASED STORMS AWAY FROM THE FORCED LINE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS....ESPECIALLY GIVEN PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND TENDENCY FOR STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
IMPULSE OVER NE TX TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION.
MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH THE EWD ADVANCING
LINE WHERE MESOSCALE LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP. DUE TO
THE NATURE OF THE FORCING...DOMINANT MODE MAY REMAIN LINEAR.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY FROM 300-400 M2/S2 FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A
RISK OF TORNADOS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE FOR
STORMS TO INITIATE FARTHER EAST ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
EXTENDING INLAND AWAY FROM THE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April
I think the GFS suggestion of the best severe chances North of I-10 was generally correct.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SABINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
* AT 1120 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MACUNE...OR 24 MILES NORTH OF ROCKLAND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MACUNE BY 1130 AM CDT...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN AUGUSTINE BY 1135 AM CDT...
GENEVA AND ROSEVINE BY 1140 AM CDT...
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srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
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Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE TX INTO PART OF LA AND
MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM CNTRL TX INTO PARTS OF OK/AR AND THE LWR MS VLY...
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA MOVES ENEWD TO SERN KS BY
12Z MON. VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET SRN/CNTRL TX ROTATES EWD INTO
LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT IN CONCERT WITH TROUGH TO S OF UPPER LOW
WHICH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ALONG WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE.
SFC LOW ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ERN TX DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS ERN AR BY
THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD ACROSS LOW MS
VALLEY AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG INFLUX OF MOIST/UNSTABLE GULF AIR
UNDERWAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY QUESTION TODAY BEING
THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS THAT CAN DEVELOP PRIOR TO
PASSAGE OF THE FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH QLCS AND
SUPERCELL MODE OF CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT ADVECTION
OF BOUNDARY LAYER GULF AIR HAVE EXTENDED HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK
A LITTLE FURTHER INTO LWR MS VALLEY FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..SE TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY
COMBINATION OF MODEST SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW HAS
ALREADY DESTABILIZED REGION TO ALLOW EXISTING ELEVATED
SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OVER SE TX AND THE NWRN GULF TO BECOME NEARLY
SFC-BASED BY LATE THIS MORNING. OTHER NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS MAY
FORM BY EARLY AFTN INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN LA. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOME SFC HEATING AND EWD PROGRESSION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
APPROACHING UPR VORT HAS SUPPORTED STRENGTHENING OF STORMS WITHIN
SRN END OF SQLN NOW OVER ERN TX MOVING INTO NWRN LA. FARTHER
N...SCTD ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL MAY SPREAD NWD WITH 850 MB WARM
FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...AR AND MS.
WIND PROFILES ACROSS SE TX AND LA WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...WITH 40+ KT SLY LLJ VEERING TO 60+ KT SW FLOW
AT 500 MB THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPR
DIFFLUENCE N OF SUBTROPICAL JET...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL/WIND. QUESTIONS DO REMAIN
REGARDING OVERALL DEGREE OF SVR THREAT GIVEN /1/ PRESENCE OF EML CAP
THAT COULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR WAA STORMS TO BECOME
SUSTAINED/SFC-BASED...AND /2/ LIKELY PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR MODE OF
CONVECTION ALONG AFOREMENTIONED SQLN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST STRONG EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS FROM SE TX INTO
PARTS OF LA AND SRN/WRN MS...THE MDT RISK IS MAINTAINED AND SHIFTED
A LITTLE N IN MS/NERN LA
HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A MATURE QLCS WILL QUICKLY CROSS MS EARLY
TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AT LEAST INTO WRN AL
PRIOR TO WEAKENING DUE TO DIMINISHING WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY.
..N TX/SRN OK
BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND RAIN/TSTMS OVER CNTRL TX/OK...A SEPARATE
AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM BENEATH UPR LOW DRY SLOT AS IT CROSSES THE
RED RVR VLY. HEATING BENEATH MID LVL COLD POOL SHOULD YIELD 500 TO
1000 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH AMPLE LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WLY SHEAR OVER THE RED RVR VLY AREA S OF UPR
LOW...A FEW STRONG/ORGANIZED STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
DMGG WIND. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE TX INTO PART OF LA AND
MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM CNTRL TX INTO PARTS OF OK/AR AND THE LWR MS VLY...
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA MOVES ENEWD TO SERN KS BY
12Z MON. VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET SRN/CNTRL TX ROTATES EWD INTO
LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT IN CONCERT WITH TROUGH TO S OF UPPER LOW
WHICH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ALONG WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE.
SFC LOW ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ERN TX DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS ERN AR BY
THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD ACROSS LOW MS
VALLEY AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG INFLUX OF MOIST/UNSTABLE GULF AIR
UNDERWAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY QUESTION TODAY BEING
THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS THAT CAN DEVELOP PRIOR TO
PASSAGE OF THE FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH QLCS AND
SUPERCELL MODE OF CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT ADVECTION
OF BOUNDARY LAYER GULF AIR HAVE EXTENDED HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK
A LITTLE FURTHER INTO LWR MS VALLEY FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..SE TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY
COMBINATION OF MODEST SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW HAS
ALREADY DESTABILIZED REGION TO ALLOW EXISTING ELEVATED
SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OVER SE TX AND THE NWRN GULF TO BECOME NEARLY
SFC-BASED BY LATE THIS MORNING. OTHER NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS MAY
FORM BY EARLY AFTN INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN LA. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOME SFC HEATING AND EWD PROGRESSION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
APPROACHING UPR VORT HAS SUPPORTED STRENGTHENING OF STORMS WITHIN
SRN END OF SQLN NOW OVER ERN TX MOVING INTO NWRN LA. FARTHER
N...SCTD ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL MAY SPREAD NWD WITH 850 MB WARM
FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...AR AND MS.
WIND PROFILES ACROSS SE TX AND LA WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...WITH 40+ KT SLY LLJ VEERING TO 60+ KT SW FLOW
AT 500 MB THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPR
DIFFLUENCE N OF SUBTROPICAL JET...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL/WIND. QUESTIONS DO REMAIN
REGARDING OVERALL DEGREE OF SVR THREAT GIVEN /1/ PRESENCE OF EML CAP
THAT COULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR WAA STORMS TO BECOME
SUSTAINED/SFC-BASED...AND /2/ LIKELY PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR MODE OF
CONVECTION ALONG AFOREMENTIONED SQLN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST STRONG EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS FROM SE TX INTO
PARTS OF LA AND SRN/WRN MS...THE MDT RISK IS MAINTAINED AND SHIFTED
A LITTLE N IN MS/NERN LA
HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A MATURE QLCS WILL QUICKLY CROSS MS EARLY
TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AT LEAST INTO WRN AL
PRIOR TO WEAKENING DUE TO DIMINISHING WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY.
..N TX/SRN OK
BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND RAIN/TSTMS OVER CNTRL TX/OK...A SEPARATE
AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM BENEATH UPR LOW DRY SLOT AS IT CROSSES THE
RED RVR VLY. HEATING BENEATH MID LVL COLD POOL SHOULD YIELD 500 TO
1000 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH AMPLE LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WLY SHEAR OVER THE RED RVR VLY AREA S OF UPR
LOW...A FEW STRONG/ORGANIZED STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
DMGG WIND. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April
The tornado warnings are in the Severe box, and the severe warnings are in the Tornado box...
0 likes
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April
On the bowing section...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR DOWNTOWN HOUSTON... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAN
JACINTO STATE PARK...MINUTE MAID PARK...LAKE HOUSTON DAM...
SHELDON...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS...GALENA PARK...CROSBY...
CLOVERLEAF...CHANNELVIEW...BARRETT AND ALDINE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR DOWNTOWN HOUSTON... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAN
JACINTO STATE PARK...MINUTE MAID PARK...LAKE HOUSTON DAM...
SHELDON...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS...GALENA PARK...CROSBY...
CLOVERLEAF...CHANNELVIEW...BARRETT AND ALDINE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN SABINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANSFIELD...
WEST CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT
* AT 1146 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PATROON...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CENTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ZWOLLE BY NOON CDT...
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April
Double Post from SETX/SWLA thread alert
The real tornado show should be the cells starting to pop ahead of the line around Beaumont as they move inland...
As noted above, I have analyzed in my amateur way a boundary between LFT and ARA, or near Highway 90, that may serve as a focus for severe weather.
The real tornado show should be the cells starting to pop ahead of the line around Beaumont as they move inland...
As noted above, I have analyzed in my amateur way a boundary between LFT and ARA, or near Highway 90, that may serve as a focus for severe weather.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA THROUGH SE AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 142...144...
VALID 121700Z - 121830Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
142...144...CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN LA
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS SERN AR.
SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EAST OF WW 142
TOWARD NW MS. AT THIS TIME ANOTHER WW IS PROBABLY NOT
WARRANTED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NW LA SWWD THROUGH SERN TX. NRN PART OF
LINE IS SURGING EWD AT 40-45 KT WHERE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
BOW/COMMA HEAD CONFIGURATION JUST EAST OF LUFKIN. THE 15Z RAOB FROM
SHREVEPORT AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STABLE NORTH OF COASTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SW LA
INTO SERN TX. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
EXIST ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER...AND HIGHER THETA-E INFLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SLY 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
HELP TO SUSTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS STABLE OVER NRN LA...NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S DOES NOT PRECLUDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND TO REACH THE
SURFACE WITH THE STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.
FARTHER NORTH INTO AR...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER WITH MOSTLY
50S OBSERVED. THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THE LINEAR STRUCTURES OVER S CNTRL AR...PRIMARY THREAT STILL APPEARS
TO BE HAIL WITH ELEVATED CELLS DEVELOPING OVER SERN AR.
..DIAL.. 04/12/2009
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34679033 32669137 31709212 31319391 32729318 35169164
34679033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA THROUGH SE AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 142...144...
VALID 121700Z - 121830Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
142...144...CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN LA
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS SERN AR.
SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EAST OF WW 142
TOWARD NW MS. AT THIS TIME ANOTHER WW IS PROBABLY NOT
WARRANTED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NW LA SWWD THROUGH SERN TX. NRN PART OF
LINE IS SURGING EWD AT 40-45 KT WHERE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
BOW/COMMA HEAD CONFIGURATION JUST EAST OF LUFKIN. THE 15Z RAOB FROM
SHREVEPORT AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STABLE NORTH OF COASTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SW LA
INTO SERN TX. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
EXIST ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER...AND HIGHER THETA-E INFLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SLY 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
HELP TO SUSTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS STABLE OVER NRN LA...NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S DOES NOT PRECLUDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND TO REACH THE
SURFACE WITH THE STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.
FARTHER NORTH INTO AR...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER WITH MOSTLY
50S OBSERVED. THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THE LINEAR STRUCTURES OVER S CNTRL AR...PRIMARY THREAT STILL APPEARS
TO BE HAIL WITH ELEVATED CELLS DEVELOPING OVER SERN AR.
..DIAL.. 04/12/2009
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34679033 32669137 31709212 31319391 32729318 35169164
34679033
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOUMA
LOUISIANA TO 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 142...WW 143...WW 144...
DISCUSSION...STRONG SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORT OF SUPERCELLS IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WATCH. WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SPREADING
RAPIDLY NWD IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE E/NE ACROSS CENTRAL MS TO
SERN LA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...HALES
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOUMA
LOUISIANA TO 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 142...WW 143...WW 144...
DISCUSSION...STRONG SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORT OF SUPERCELLS IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WATCH. WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SPREADING
RAPIDLY NWD IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE E/NE ACROSS CENTRAL MS TO
SERN LA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...HALES
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April
I used to work for Halliburton in New Iberia. I figured everyone knew ARA...
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CajunMama
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- Location: 30.22N, 92.05W Lafayette, LA
Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April
Ed Mahmoud wrote:I used to work for Halliburton in New Iberia. I figured everyone knew ARA...
It's just a tiny little itty bitty airport. No commercial flights. Probably home to more cropduster planes than anything.
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Dave
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- Posts: 13442
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- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Go away for a day, come back just in time to see you'll have decided to make it another interesting day down south. 
Out of practice..!! Let's put the right bulletin in!
BEAUREGARD LA-CALCASIEU LA-
256 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CALCASIEU AND SOUTHERN BEAUREGARD PARISHES...
AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ORETTA TO VINTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LONGVILLE BY 305 PM CDT...
RAGLEY BY 315 PM CDT...
AT 255 PM CDT...DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN DE QUINCY WITH THESE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
Out of practice..!! Let's put the right bulletin in!
BEAUREGARD LA-CALCASIEU LA-
256 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CALCASIEU AND SOUTHERN BEAUREGARD PARISHES...
AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ORETTA TO VINTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LONGVILLE BY 305 PM CDT...
RAGLEY BY 315 PM CDT...
AT 255 PM CDT...DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN DE QUINCY WITH THESE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CATAHOULA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MONTEREY...LARTO...
CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 306 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF WALLACE RIDGE
TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACME MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MONTEREY BY 315 PM CDT...
FROGMORE BY 320 PM CDT...
BLACK HAWK...SLOCUM...LEE BAYOU AND WEST FERRIDAY BY 325 PM CDT...
DEER PARK AND CLAYTON BY 330 PM CDT...
SPOKANE AND VIDALIA BY 335 PM CDT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CATAHOULA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MONTEREY...LARTO...
CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 306 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF WALLACE RIDGE
TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACME MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MONTEREY BY 315 PM CDT...
FROGMORE BY 320 PM CDT...
BLACK HAWK...SLOCUM...LEE BAYOU AND WEST FERRIDAY BY 325 PM CDT...
DEER PARK AND CLAYTON BY 330 PM CDT...
SPOKANE AND VIDALIA BY 335 PM CDT...
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHILDRESS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT
* AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CHILDRESS...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CHILDRESS...U S
HIGHWAY 287...AND KIRKLAND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHILDRESS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT
* AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CHILDRESS...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CHILDRESS...U S
HIGHWAY 287...AND KIRKLAND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHEZ...
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT
* AT 354 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SLOCUM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DEER PARK BY 400 PM CDT...
SIBLEY BY 410 PM CDT...
NATCHEZ AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON BY 425 PM CDT...
CRANFIELD BY 440 PM CDT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHEZ...
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT
* AT 354 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SLOCUM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DEER PARK BY 400 PM CDT...
SIBLEY BY 410 PM CDT...
NATCHEZ AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON BY 425 PM CDT...
CRANFIELD BY 440 PM CDT...
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Dionne
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- Age: 73
- Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2006 8:51 am
- Location: SW Mississippi....Alaska transplant via a Southern Belle.
Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April
There is a severe thunderstorm warning just west of us......it's become darker than usual outside.....we can hear the storm coming.
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