TPC still doesn't mention big wave

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 7:19 pm

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... XNT20.KNHC

This is the 8:05 discussion that Formosa from TPC did and frankly it is a short one compared with Blake and Berg discussions that are very long and detailed but not a word from Formosa about that wave that almost all models are jumping to but I think that by the 2:05 one they must introduced it.

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 7:27 pm

Is it because in the short term conditions are unfavorable??? According to Dr. Steve Lyons they are. :roll:

Guess we shall see :wink:

Stormsfury · #3 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 7:35 pm

They'll mention it soon enough ...

Since it is just about to emerge off the coast ... generally, there will likely be a decrease in convection, probably followed by another flare-up ...

That wave just looks really good ...

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 8:00 pm

Looks like GFS smells fish with this one-if this is the same wave... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml shows it going north of the Islands-could be overdoing the troughiness that far out though so wait and see... Made an attempt at plotting them below...

chadtm80 · #5 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 8:04 pm

Great to see you posting jekyhe!

wow · #6 Postby **wow** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 8:04 pm

[quote="Jekyhe32210"]Looks like GFS smells fish with this one-if this is the same wave... shows it going north of the Islands-could be overdoing the troughiness that far out though so wait and see... Made an attempt at plotting them below... quote]

You can always count on a trough ending up off the east coast past day 10 or so. I'd back that up well west of where it's putting it now

Scott_inVA · #7 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 8:29 pm

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Looks like GFS smells fish with this one-if this is the same wave... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml shows it going north of the Islands-could be overdoing the troughiness that far out though so wait and see... Made an attempt at plotting them below...

Concerning GFS, I'm inclined to agree ATTM. Here in the Mid-Atlantic, we are champs of busted +D3 ZFPs b/c some forecasters are still hugging the GFS. I don't get it as it has busted on virtually every trof through the Mid-Atlantic for 7, count em' 7 weeks. If one thinks the trof is more to the west and the Ridge is back (as somewhat depicted on the 12Z Ukie 120), the TC just barely makes it SW of the 20|60 benchmark. Way too close now but consensus is developing.

Scott

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 28, 2003 8:46 pm

Hummm Scott SW of 20|60 are my doorsteps.

TPC still doesn't mention big wave

TPC still doesn't mention big wave

Very early on this wave but... models path

Re: Very early on this wave but... models path

Re: Very early on this wave but... models path

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