Bay of Bengal: BIJLI - Deep Depression (01B)

[HURAKAN]

35 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 01
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 86.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 86.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.0N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.9N 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.9N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.7N 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.4N 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 142007Z AMSU-B
PASS INDICATE THAT INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER A
WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 01B HAS BEGUN
TO INCREASE TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS FROM A QUASI-
STATIONARY POSITION AND IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER INDIA AND ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA HAVE CAUSED A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER IN THE LAST 06 HOURS THE INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEED SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGING TO THE WEST OF TC 01B HAS
BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT INFLUENCE AND WILL HELP TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TURNS IT MORE NORTHWARD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SUBSIDENCE ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND WILL HINDER OUTFLOW IN THE
POLEWARD CHANNEL, LEAVING ONLY THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. BASED ON THE
SINGLE CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL, THE
FORECAST INTENSIFIES TC 01B AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48
WITH ONLY SMALL INCREASES BEYOND TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 141121Z APR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTIO21 PGTW 141130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[badkhan]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-04-2009

Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 0200 utc OF 15 APRIL, 2009 based on 0000 UTC of 15 APRIL, 2009.

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST & ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL 2009 NEAR LAT. 12.50 N AND LONG. 88.00 E, ABOUT 550 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR (43333), 700 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM (43149) AND ABOUT 800 KM SOUTHWEST OF PATHEIN (48094) (MYANMAR).

SATELLITE IMAGeRY SHOWS BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 10.00 N AND 15.00 N AND LONG. 83.00 E AND 92.50 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -600C. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5.

sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 25 KNOTS. the state of the sea is rough to VERY rough around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 1000 hpa.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS AROUND 10 KnoTS. 24 HOURS SHEAR TENDENCY IS NEGTIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 150N. SEA SURFACE TEMPRATUREs are favourable for intensification as it is 0.50 to 1.00 C above normal.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INTIALLY.

I hope it evades the Ganges and Irrawady delta areas.

[senorpepr]

WTIN20 DEMS 150710
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUT LOOK
---------------------------------------------
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-04-2009

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0500 UTC OF 15
APRIL, 2009 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 15 APRIL, 2009 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST & ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLYWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 15TH APRIL 2009 OVER CENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL NEAR LAT.13.5 DEG.N AND LONG. 87.5 DEG.E,ABOUT 600 KM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR (43333), 650 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM
(43149) AND 850 KM SOUTHWEST OF PATHEIN (48094).

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT.12.5 DEG.N AND 17.0 DEG.N AND LONG.
83.5 DEG.E AND 89.0 DEG.E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT)
DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -60 DEG.C. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
IS T1.5.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25
KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS BETWEEN
5 TO 10 KNOTS. 24 HOURS SHEAR TENDENCY IS NEGTIVE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 15 DEG.N.
CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
AND MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME.



BOB 01/2009/05 Dated: 15th April 2009



Time of issue: 1100 hours IST



Sub: Depression over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal : - Pre cyclone watch



The depression over southeast & adjoining central Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hours

IST of today, the 15th April 2009 over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal near lat. 13.50 N and long. 87.50 E, about 600 km

west-northwest of Port Blair, 650 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 850 km southwest of Pathein (Myanmar). The system is

likely to intensify into a deep depression and move in a north-northwesterly direction for some more time.



Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over Andaman & Nicober Islands during next 48 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining Sea areas during next

48 hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough around Andaman Islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.



Numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system may not cross eastern coast. However, it may affect coastal areas

of north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa commencing from tomorrow morning. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65

kmph are likely along and off these coasts commencing from tomorrow morning. Sea condition will be rough to very rough.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.6N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.5N 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.7N 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.9N 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 86.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 150159Z SSMI/S IMAGE DEPICT AN ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH BROKEN BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS IT
TRACKED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM
142345Z INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS 35KT WINDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY
AROUND THE LLCC WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER ASIA MINOR. AFTER
TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN INDIA THAT WILL HELP TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. FORECASTED TRACK IS BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT
OF OBJECTIVE AIDS, WITH EGRR BEING THE ONE OUTLIER TRACKING THE
SYSTEM INTO THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN INDIA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE POSITION
IN RELATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROVIDING GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG,
BUT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH IS STARTING TO HINDER POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. BASED ON THE SINGLE
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL, THE FORECAST INTENSIFIES
TC 01B SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OBJECTIVE AIDS THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.

[badkhan]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-04-2009

Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 0900 utc OF 15 APRIL, 2009 based on 0600 UTC of 15 APRIL, 2009 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 1130 HOURS IST OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL 2009 NEAR LAT. 14.00 N AND LONG. 87.50 E, ABOUT 600 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR, 600 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM AND 850 KM SOUTHWEST OF PATHEIN (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME.

SATELLITE IMAGeRY SHOWS BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 13.00 N TO 18.00 N AND LONG. 82.50 E AND 89.50 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -600C. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS t 2.0 sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 30 KNOTS. the state of the sea is VERY rough to VERY rough around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 1000 hpa.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 24 HOURS SHEAR TENDENCY IS NEGATIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEEP DEPRESSION LIES CLOSE TO SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 160N. CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME.

[jit2006]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 APR 2009 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 15:11:33 N Lon : 86:20:26 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 994.6mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 2.7 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -39.0C Cloud Region Temp : -52.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 14:35:24 N Lon: 86:08:23 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

Weakening flag says nothing. It's automated. Just means their CI number has fallen.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[somethingfunny]

I don't like the look of this one. Particularly the forecast track.

[Derek Ortt]

all of the NRL images are blocked and are not showing up... please correct
correction... the latest ones are

[Derek Ortt]

inner-core not that well defined... any intensification during the next day or so should be slow

[Chacor]

all of the NRL images are blocked and are not showing up... please correct
correction... the latest ones are

That's always been the case with a reclassification. The older links all link to 94B, not 01B.

[KWT]

Yep need to hope for slow strengthening as well Derek because this area of the world doesn't tend to do all that well when it comes to strong cyclones.

[tolakram]

01B.BIJLI

[HurricaneRobert]

Starting to develop an eye?

[Chacor]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-04-2009

TROPCAL STORM, ‘BIJLI’ ADVISORY NO. ONE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2009 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 15TH APRIL 2009.

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS, FURTHER INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM, ‘BIJLI’ AND LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HOURS IST OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL 2009 NEAR LAT. 15.00 N AND LONG. 86.50 E, ABOUT 470 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, 750 KM NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR AND 900 KM SOUTHWEST OF PATHEIN (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME.

BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, THE ESTIMATED FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

DATE/TIME (IST) POSITION (LAT. N/LONG. E) SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
15.04.2009/1200 15.0/86.5 65-75 GUSTING TO 85
16.04.2009/0000 16.5/86.0 70-80 GUSTING TO 90
16.04.2009/1200 17.5/86.0 80-90 GUSTING TO 100
17.04.2009/0000 18.5/86.5 90-100 GUSTING TO 110
17.04.2009/1200 20.0/87.5 100-110 GUSTING TO 120
18.04.2009/0000 21.0/89.0 100-110 GUSTING TO 120
18.04.2009/1200 22.0/91.0 100-110 GUSTING TO 120

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED BAND PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT. 13.0 N TO 19.0 N AND WEST OF LONGITUDE 90 E . THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -60C. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.5 RPT T2.5. THE FORECAST INTENSITY DURING NEXT 24 HOURS IS T 3.0.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 40 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 996 HPA.


VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 24 HOURS SHEAR TENDENCY IS NEGATIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 17N. CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME.

[Chacor]

FKIN20 VIDP 151650

DTG: 20090415/1200Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: BIJLI
NR: 01

PSN: N1500 E08630
MOV: NNW12KT
C: 996 HPA

MAX WIND: 40KT GUSTING TO 50KT

FCST PSN+ 06 HRS: 151800 N 1600 E08600
MAX WIND+12 HRS: 40KT GUSTING TO 50 KT
FCST PSN +12HRS: 160000 N 1630 E 08600
MAX WIND+12HRS : 45KT GUSTING TO 55 KT
FCST PSN+18HRS : 160600 N 1700 E 08600
MAX WIND+18HRS : 45 KT GUSTING TO 55 KT
FCST PSN+24 HRS: 161200 N 1730 E 08600
MAX WIND+24 HRS: 45KT GUSTING TO 55KT

NEXT MSG: 20090415/1800Z