Denver LACK OF snow/winter thread

[SCMedic]

Here's to hoping!

I was planning on heading up to Breck tomorrow night, and riding on Fri, but more and more it's looking like this will be an east of the divide storm, and it could shut down 70 in the foothills pretty easily..

[PTPatrick]

yeah 4 inches QPF in the Foothills...possibly 3-4 ft of white stuff...should shut down 70 from Gennessee west to the tunnel without much trouble.

[SCMedic]

That's what I was figuring... I need to get back to town Friday night for work on Sat.. Great skiing too!


I sure hope it's cold enough for snow here in Denver.. I'm NW towards Boulder, and would love to see some big wet numbers! 9News seems to be the only one saying it'll be all rain here.. Accuweather, Weather.com, Wunderground all seem to think it'll be snow after 3am Friday morning...

[PTPatrick]

GFS finally looking more like NAM...SWEET!! Shows precip lingering into Saturday afternoon now and looks like a little colder as well. The afternoon discussion was hinting that NAM might be too cold, but GFS has trended toward it with temps and QPF...

0z GFS now paints total precip for maximum over the front range of 3-4 inches though 0z Sunday(later saturday evening)...snow should be from about 18z Friday on. During the 36 hours from Friday afternoon/evening on to Saturday night GFS indicates about 2-2.5 inches inches...which would be couple feet over the hurban corridor if the temp grids work out ok.

0z NAM is now about the same as GFS as GFS caught up to it...in fact their QPF field look eerily similar now except the NAM's bullseye is more appropriately over the foot hills and not east of the urban corridor like the GFS. temp profiles look pretty similar with changeove likely around 18z Friday afternoon. Nam is a little wetter in that time frame with more like 2.5 -3 inch QPF maximum.

So if snow really fell and accumulated based on either model the 25 corridor would be looking at 2-3 ft on the ground by saturday night...so if you play it safe and say it rains longer and we loose some to melting down here...it would sill be pretty darn impressive.


We really need the moisture though. Come on drought buster.

[SCMedic]

Either way, this should be the drought buster we need!

I'm going to throw 18-20" up for my prediction, based purely on model input, consistency, rain/melting at the onset... Should be awesome! Here's to hoping this one works out, because the Winter Storm warning 2 weeks ago, with no snow, was severely depressing.

[PTPatrick]

Not much change in model reasoning on the 6 z runs. 12 z should be about in the next couple hours so we'll see what they have. NAM still keeps heavy QPF late into saturday, but also looks to warm a bit towards the end. SO I could see a senario where we get all snow tomorrow afternoon, night and saturday morning before a change back to rain on Sat afternoon. In any case models still showing 2.5 -4 inch QPF range. Discussion this morning compared this to March 03 in terms of temps so I think thats why they held off on the WSW for the urban corridor until later. You never can tell...5500 ft means the difference between dowtown Denver and Aurora. In fact I have driven over Smokey Hill once and watched the rain change to snow. AFter the last bust of a WSW I am sure they wanting to wait and see.

[Dencolo]

OVER THE PLAINS...A SNOW RAIN MIX WILL CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY. THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE MORE RAIN
THAN SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR WILL RANGE FROM 10
TO 24 INCHES

It's also 37 degrees at Centennial airport and Broomfield airport. Cooler than expected, though some due to rain. Still banking on this being our big storm of the season. Pretty exciting!

[PTPatrick]

Not much has changed in the forecast at this point. NAM seems to keep the precip in longer into saturday night. Both still showing totals 3-4 inches of precip...

It is a little colder than expected at this point which makes me wonder if NAMS coolder numbers were more correct. Time will tell. I do think there is a least a REALLY good chance of the total from BOULDER to DIA and southward being on the higher end of the 2 ft. North of there in say, fort collins, longmont, greeley...probably closer to a foot. We will see.

[SCMedic]

I'd be willing to bet the change will be earlier than forecast. I saw a rain/snow mix with big fat, comical, snowdrops on my way home at 5:30. The fact that it stayed in the 30's today will have a big effect on the cooling tonight and tomorrow. I've seen sleet/rain/snow at my house already in Broomfield.

[Dencolo]

NAM still showing a ton of moisture - about the most I've seen so far.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

Starting the changeover now on the South side. I think there is a shot this will be the biggest storm in 2 years. And it's mid-April. Denver is always interesting.

GFS showing a good 3" of liquid well. I'm hoping to get a good 20" of snow from this storm - just wanting it to stay all snow!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_048l.gif

[PTPatrick]

Had quite a sleet storm roll through the downtown/NE denver area. It was SO loud. That was around 8:00. Temp is still 37 though and most of the sleet has melted.

[SCMedic]

That rain/snow line is slinking east slowly... 36 at my house currently...

[SCMedic]

Rain just totally changed to snow in the last hour here. Huge HUGE flakes falling and sticking to everything. Looks like the storm is slower than expected, and thus the changeover took longer. Also means snow should stick around through saturday night. We'll see.

[PTPatrick]

Same thing here. I was kinda snoozing this morning taking a peak out the window from time to time. At 530 it looked like nothing else had really happened last night. Definately not snow. Got up at 615 and as I was fizing coffee notice fat flakes start up. Now its snowing pretty good. so 2-4 inches didnt really work out for last night, oh well. I kinda agree with the forecaster that the storm is a little slower than expected.

The 06 z models still show over 3-3.5(NAM at 3, GFS at 3-4) inches liquid...before they were showing that for the period from yesterday morning into the end of the whole event(next 48 hours). Essentially the liquid last night and yesterday doesnt really count, so according to the models, 3+ inches of liquid should still fall from 06 Z, mostly in the form of snow. Melting will still be an issue today, but I think once the main event gets here after lunch time then we should start to see intensity trump temps. I have to wonder, though, if we are still in for around 2.5-3 more inches liquid and its all snow...I wonder if the totals dont end up higher than they have forecasted. Right now if you add up all the ranges for my spot on the NWS map, you get 14-23 inches. I could see where 3 inches of liqud above 6000 feet could really end up close to 3-4 ft.
Wish it had started earlier, have to get up and go to work now, only to probably have all my patients cancel.

[PTPatrick]

After a quick look at the cams, Golden and castle rock have really gotten hit and c470/I 70 intercahnge looks snow packed. I 25 at Founders in Castle rock, and pretty much down to MOnument are also snow packed. inside 470 not bad at this point and 25 is clear all the way north to even Welllington, but then at the "natural fort" at the WY state line, it looks bad.

[SCMedic]

I'm interested to see the models holding the snow longer tomorrow. I think it could get nasty this afternoon and evening. Starting to see some light accumulation on roofs and grasses..Too bad I have to work tomorrow. Loveland already reported 12" overnight.. I should have gone.

[Dencolo]

I woke up this morning and didn't see any snow on the ground. Thought "not another forecast bust". Then after I got out of the shower the snow really started coming down. And I agree with you guys, it looks like the storm is just a little delayed. They are now calling for a healthy amount of snow on Saturday.

[Dencolo]

Liking the new forecast from the NWS. The snow is very interesting today. It changes minute by minute (small flakes, large flakes, high intensity, low intensity)

Today: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after noon. Areas of fog. Steady temperature around 35. North northwest wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. Low around 29. North northwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow before noon, then rain and snow. High near 36. Northwest wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

[CajunMama]

Finally more snow for y'all! And you have the weekend to enjoy it!

[PTrackerLA]

Glad y'all are getting some good snow/precip to help with the drought. Never gets old watching a good ole' snowstorm whether it's at home (December 11 2008 baby!) or when I get to visit the Rockies during the winter.