S. Plains Severe April 17th to 19th?

[Ed Mahmoud]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

TXC437-162115-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090416T2115Z/
SWISHER TX-
354 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
SWISHER COUNTY...

A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED! TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING NOW.
MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES ARE NOT SAFE. AT 345 PM A STORM SPOTTER
REPORTED A TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF KRESS. THE TORNADO HAS SINCE
LIFTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER TORNADO COULD FORM AT ANY TIME.

AT 351 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TULIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE TULIA.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bump to new page, plus a severe warning for a cell approaching Holliday, TX.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX SOUTH PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155...

VALID 162053Z - 162200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155
CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE AND POSSIBLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OVER SRN PORTIONS WW AREA...SWD TOP NEAR I-20
ENE OF MAF. TORNADO WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THIS REGION...WHICH
WOULD REPRESENT UPGRADE AND NEW WW NUMBER FOR THOSE OVERLAPPING
COUNTIES ALREADY IN WW 155.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SHARPENING PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL ZONE AND CONFLUENCE BAND FROM COKE COUNTY NWWD BETWEEN
BPG-SNK...INTERSECTING DRYLINE OVER DAWSON COUNTY. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD DRIFT NWD...AMIDST NEARLY UNCAPPED MLCAPE NEAR 2000
J/KG...AND SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR DRYLINE TO RETREAT WWD SOME
MORE. AIR MASS ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY
LOWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...LOWER LCL...AS WELL AS MORE BACKED/ELY
SFC WINDS THAT YIELD STRONGER 0-1 KM SRH AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.
LBB VWP INDICATES EARLIER RELATIVE WEAKNESSES IN LOW LEVEL FLOW
ABOVE BACKED SFC WINDS ARE WEAKENING AS TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT E AHEAD OF 4-CORNERS UPPER CYCLONE...A TREND
THAT IS NOT YET MANIFEST AT JTN PROFILER FARTHER E. PRIND LOW-LEVEL
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN SLOWLY WITH TIME THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON...AND THAT HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN LARGEST ALONG
AND N OF WARM FRONT. THICKENING SHALLOW CONVECTION EVIDENT IN VIS
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TSTMS MAY DEVELOP S OF BOUNDARY AND MOVE
NWD...ANY OF WHICH COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY UPON INTERACTING WITH
MESOBETA SCALE FRONTAL ZONE.

..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2009


ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...



Midland is 81ºF but with a dewpoint of 39ºF, Snyder, is 70ºF with a dewpoint of 56ºF. San Angelo is 76ºF and 60ºF.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
428 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LUBBOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SLIDE...OR ABOUT 10
MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS MALL. STORM SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING
STRONG ROTATION JUST EAST OF SLIDE. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RANSOM CANYON.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RANSOM CANYON...
SLIDE...WOODROW...LUBBOCK SOUTH PLAINS MALL...LUBBOCK INT.
AIRPORT...DOWNTOWN LUBBOCK...LUBBOCK...TEXAS TECH UNIV. AND IDALOU.

[Ed Mahmoud]

AFD Snip...

SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE SAN ANGELO COUNTY WARNING AREA.

ELEVATED DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN CALLAHAN...THROCKMORTON
AND HASKELL COUNTIES WERE MOVING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAP HOWEVER LIKELY TOO
LARGE TO BREAK ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...EVEN
WITH THE SUNSHINE IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND N EDWARDS PLATEAU.
HOWEVER...IF THE CAP DOES BREAK...WESTERN AREAS...FROM CROCKETT
COUNTY UP TO STERLING AND FISHER COUNTY MAY HAVE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM.

MAIN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL HOWEVER WILL BE LATER TONIGHT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN UP INTO THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AS UPPER LOW
OVER IN THE 4-CORNERS MOVES SOUTHEAST AND DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE. SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY AS THE SQUALL LINE THEN MOVES
SLOWLY EAST. GFS MODEL HAS HIGH 1-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-55 AND
VERY HIGH HELICITIES OF 400-800. GFS/NAM MODEL CAPES WERE IN THE
500-1500 J/KG RANGE BUT MAY BE UNDERDONE AS MIDLAND 12Z SOUNDING
THIS MORNING HAD CAPES OF 3200 J/KG. HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORMS WILL MOVE NE...ALONG SLOW MOVING
SQUALL LINE/DRYLINE. STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING MAINLY A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...BUT ALSO FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE. A
FEW AREAS MAY SEE MORE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
439 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CASTRO COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
SWISHER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 434 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TULIA...MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH. ANOTHER STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF KRESS OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TULIA. IN
ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE TULIA...KRESS
AND HAPPY.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
439 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

TXC303-162215-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-090416T2215Z/
LUBBOCK TX-
439 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR LUBBOCK
COUNTY...

AS OF 435 PM CDT...MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TWO INCH DIAMETER HAIL HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM SOUTH LUBBOCK.

AT 435 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE TWO THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES IN LUBBOCK
COUNTY. THE MOST DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
WOODROW...OR 5 MILES SOUTH PLAINS MALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM SPOTTERS ADDITIONALLY HAVE REPORTED A ROTATING WALL CLOUD NEAR
IDALOU.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RANSOM CANYON...
NEW DEAL...SLIDE...WOODROW...LUBBOCK SOUTH PLAINS MALL...LUBBOCK INT.
AIRPORT...DOWNTOWN LUBBOCK...LUBBOCK...TEXAS TECH UNIV. AND IDALOU.


Looks as if this one will pass very near DT Lubbock and over Lubbock Intl Airport.

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Watch # 157 out now for the TX Panhandle



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 445 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 155...WW 156...

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND E
OF DRY LINE ACROSS WRN TX PANHANDLE. WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES IS INCREASING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER S INTO THE
EVENING TO S AND E OF MAF.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.


...HALES

[Ed Mahmoud]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 445 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 155...WW 156...

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND E
OF DRY LINE ACROSS WRN TX PANHANDLE. WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES IS INCREASING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER S INTO THE
EVENING TO S AND E OF MAF.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.


...HALES

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High Moderate




BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

TORNADO WATCH 157 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC003-033-045-069-075-081-101-103-107-115-125-135-151-153-165-
169-173-189-191-219-227-235-263-269-279-303-305-317-329-335-345-
353-383-415-431-433-437-445-461-170500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0157.090416T2145Z-090417T0500Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDREWS BORDEN BRISCOE
CASTRO CHILDRESS COKE
COTTLE CRANE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR
FISHER FLOYD GAINES
GARZA GLASSCOCK HALE
HALL HOCKLEY HOWARD
IRION KENT KING
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
MOTLEY NOLAN REAGAN
SCURRY STERLING STONEWALL
SWISHER TERRY UPTON


ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...



Watch 157 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
508 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

TXC107-153-189-303-162245-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-090416T2245Z/
FLOYD TX-HALE TX-CROSBY TX-LUBBOCK TX-
508 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN LUBBOCK...NORTHWESTERN CROSBY...SOUTHEASTERN HALE AND
SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD COUNTIES...

AT 506 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR STRONGLY INDICATED A
TORNADO...OR IMMINENT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ALONG HIGHWAY 62 82
BETWEEN IDALOU AND LORENZO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. VERY LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS LIKELY.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PETERSBURG...
LORENZO...IDALOU AND CONE.

[CrazyC83]

70/20 probs in the watch. Not common to see such a big differential except for in tropical cyclones.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GARZA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 532 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POST...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LAKE ALAN HENRY
AND POST.

TXC303-162300-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090416T2300Z/
LUBBOCK TX-
531 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
LUBBOCK COUNTY...

AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE
MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
RANSOM CANYON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. A TORNADO MAY BE IMMINENT.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SLATON...RANSOM
CANYON...DOWNTOWN LUBBOCK...LUBBOCK AND TEXAS TECH UNIV..

[Ed Mahmoud]

LBB is too close...

[TexasSam]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
555 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 549 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CONROE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO WILLIS...THE WOODLANDS...SHENANDOAH...PANORAMA
VILLAGE...NEW WAVERLY AND CUT AND SHOOT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. AVOID WINDOWS AND TAKE COVER NOW!

[TexasSam]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
608 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

TXC339-407-471-162345-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-090416T2345Z/
WALKER TX-SAN JACINTO TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
608 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR MONTGOMERY...SAN JACINTO AND WALKER COUNTIES...

AT 603 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CONROE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAM
RADIO REPORTS INDICATE PEA TO 3/4 INCH HAIL FALLING ALONG INTERSTATE
45 AND HIGHWAY 105 IN THE CONROE AREA AT 605 PM.

* LOCATIONS IN THE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE
NOT LIMITED TO LAKE CONROE DAM...WILLIS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...NEW
WAVERLY AND CUT AND SHOOT

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Golfball sized hail near I-35 just North of ACT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not sure which County is Kent and which is Garza, but the cell further West seems to have a hook on reflectivity radar.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
712 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN KENT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHEASTERN GARZA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 710 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JUSTICEBURG...OR
ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POST. A SECOND STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF CLAIREMONT. THESE
STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LAKE ALAN
HENRY...JUSTICEBURG AND CLAIREMONT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Rotation obvious from Dyess radar on cell entering Borden County.




Abilene has cooled to 62ºF, but the dewpoint is 57º, meaning low cloud bases likely, and SSE winds at 21 mph.

Checking RUC and NAM forecast soundings for 0Z, which look fairly similar, diurnal cooling means low surface based CAPE, but good wind dynamics and mid level instability, so severe storms seems likely, but tornado risk should be low. A bit further South, storms could remain surface based into the early morning

[Ed Mahmoud]

I might be seeing a hint of rotation, nothing to strong, on cell in Coahuila about to cross the river just South of Del Rio.


ETA

A smidge of capping still obvious at 800 mb, but that is a manly sounding, and for Del Rio, that is a lot less capping than usual...

[srainhoutx]

I might be seeing a hint of rotation, nothing to strong, on cell in Coahuila about to cross the river just South of Del Rio.


ETA

A smidge of capping still obvious at 800 mb, but that is a manly sounding, and for Del Rio, that is a lot less capping than usual...

Watching carefully Del Rio and westward for MCS development. 00Z NAM is "hinting" ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bed time, hopefully no tornadoes near population centers for others after bedtime.

One spotted tornado out of NWS Lubbock, another radar indicated, and a radar indicated tornado out of NWS MAF. The confirmed Lubbock tornado started as a radar indicated cell.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1025 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CROSBY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
NORTHEASTERN LUBBOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1021 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO
APPROXIMATELY FOUR MILES SOUTH OF IDALOU...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH
OF SLATON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE IDALOU.

I still see an occasional pixel suggesting rotation near what could be an inflow notch, but it isn't strong or sustained, and that part of Texas, like most of the state more than 100 miles West of I-35 outside of a few small cities, is pretty sparse.