How Strong Would Ike Be In GOM Without Wind Sheer and Dry Ai

[margiek]

Have there been any memorable storms that lost their inner core to the extent ike did, but then became a major again...either as a landfalling storm a 2nd time or on its way out to sea without landfalling as a resurrected major?

Hugo I believe (struggled to come back after weakening to Cat 2 for 36+ hours leaving Puerto Rico, then restrengthened to Cat 4 in the last 12-18 hours before landfall in South Carolina).

Just a note: Hugo was going through an eyewall replacement while passing the Br. Virgin Islands and until it was some distance north of Puerto Rico -- possibly two in a row, as suggested from a Natural Disaster Studies report with the meteorology team headed by Joe Golden:

"Eye diameters fluctuated during this same [24-hour] period until midday on September 16, when USAF reconnaissance aircraft reported a double, concentric eyewall structure. (The significance of the double eyewall structure for intense hurricanes was noted by Willoughby et al., 1984, for a class of hurricanes, and by Golden in a report on Hurricane Alicia [National research Council, 1983.] See Savage et al., 1984.) The outer eyewall diameter of Hugo measured about 30 km across; the inner eyewall was approximately 18 km across. An unusual feature of the hurricane as it passed through the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands from midday on September 15 through the morning of September 19, when it was northwest of Puerto Rico, was the large fluctuations of the eye's diameter (from 30 to 70 km across)."

The same report notes that PR radar observed trochoidal movement of the small eyewall.

The "large fluctuations of the eye diameter" were possibly articulating the experience of flying through the decaying inner eyewall into the larger one, as I don't believe eyewall replacement cycles were completely understood and documented at that time (Derek and other mets can provide a more robust perspective), although the most current references in the literature were noted in the report.

[Ptarmigan]

Here is Jeff Master's take on Ike had it stayed over the water for 12 to 24 hours.

Galveston is not destroyed
Although Ike caused heavy damage by flooding Galveston with a 12-foot storm surge, the city escaped destruction thanks to its 15.6-foot sea wall (the wall was built 17 feet high, but has since subsided about 2 feet). The surge was able to flow into Galveston Bay and flood the city from behind, but the wall prevented a head-on battering by the surge from the ocean side. Galveston was fortunate that Ike hit the city head-on, rather than just to the south. Ike's highest storm surge occurred about 50 miles to the northeast of Galveston, over a lightly-populated stretch of coast. Galveston was also lucky that Ike did not have another 12-24 hours over water. In the 12 hours prior to landfall, Ike's central pressure dropped 6 mb, and the storm began to rapidly organize and form a new eyewall. If Ike had had another 12-24 hours to complete this process, it would have been a Category 4 hurricane with 135-145 mph winds that likely would have destroyed Galveston. The GFDL model was consistently advertising this possibility, and it wasn't far off the mark. It was not clear to me until late last night that Ike would not destroy Galveston and kill thousands of people. Other hurricane scientists I conversed with yesterday were of the same opinion.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... 84&tstamp=

Talk about a real close call right there! If Ike had been a Category 4, it would of destroyed Galveston and Houston would be a total mess even today.

[srainhoutx]

As I talk with many across the US in business, they are surprised how little public information was available following landfall. What amazes them even more are the costs that wxman57 has stated in insurable losses associated with Ike(See Topic viewtopic.php?f=31&t=105073&start=0). We were very furtunate in the SE TX/SW LA areas as we were just that close to a major life changing event. The number of repairs that continue or remain to be started at this time are truly a testament to the pure strength of the event that many of us will remember for a lifetime.

[Derek Ortt]

The topic question is a lot more critical for Gustav rather than for Ike. Gustav would have been utterly terrifying without that shear that hit it right before the Cuban landfall.

What was probably more important for Ike was that the hot water pools were so far south. A big part of the whole "it took Ike about 3 days to pull itself together" was that for about a day it was over relatively cool waters. Without that speedbump, Ike would have been able to complete the ERC or just supercharged the double eyewall system.

Gustav was well on its way to Category 5 if he had not made landfall and instead went into the Yucatan Channel. (Although he still would have weakened quite a bit before landfall).

Gustav's issue was not so much Cuba as it was good old fashioned 20-25KT of shear

[Derek Ortt]

actually, what saved Galveston (and Beaumont/Port Arthur... though they still had severe damage) was the fact that the storm was organizing and contracting right before landfall, AND that the storm made landfall over Galveston, not just to the south

The destructive potential when Ike was in the Gulf remember was well in excess of that of Katrina. The destructive potential decreased by about 40 percent as Ike neared the coastline, even though the peak winds increased slightly
had the storm remained as broad as it was in the middle of the Gulf... that would have resulted in about 3-5 feet of additional water. Had Ike have struck just south of Galveston, the tidal surge that struck the Bolivar Peninsula would have struck Galveston

[gatorcane]

Ike was not weakened because of dry air and shear. IN fact it had a near ideal environment. Did you see the size of the thing in the GOM and how symmetric and explosive the CDO was? It was a monster.

As Derek said, Ike was about ready to rapidly organize but it ran out of real estate -- had it had about 24 more hours over water it would have been devastating. Thankfully the mountains of Cuba, and the fact it traversed nearly the entire length of that island, weakened it enough so that it did not have a good head start once it emerged in the SE GOM.

[Derek Ortt]

Ike would have been devastating?

IT WAS DEVASTATING! And less so because it CONTRACTED quite a bit before landfall and made landfall on Galveston, not just south of Galveston

[jinftl]

From a non-technical perspective, if someone had said there was a cane traversing the Gulf in September....spending a couple of days over the open water even....esp when the memory of what Katrina did over the Gulf once she came off of Florida is still fresh....rapid intensification is something that may have been expected.

Of course that does not take into account factors like disruption of the core over cuba, dry air, shear, etc....or any other of number factors that may have precluded a period of rapid intensification while still well offshore.

I still contend that the overall enormous size of the system, including the huge area of hurricane force winds, is one factor that limited the development of a Cat 4 or 5 small inner core....the pressure reading was always much lower over the Gulf than the winds would seem to suiggest. If Ike had contracted earlier, there may have been ample time for a strong inner core of major hurricane force winds to develop...winds more in line with the pressure readings. This may have actual resulted in the surge not being as high over such a large area

Ike was not weakened because of dry air and shear. IN fact it had a near ideal environment. Did you see the size of the thing in the GOM and how symmetric and explosive the CDO was? It was a monster.

As Derek said, Ike was about ready to rapidly organize but it ran out of real estate -- had it had about 24 more hours over water it would have been devastating. Thankfully the mountains of Cuba, and the fact it traversed nearly the entire length of that island, weakened it enough so that it did not have a good head start once it emerged in the SE GOM.

[gatorcane]

Ike would have been devastating?

IT WAS DEVASTATING! And less so because it CONTRACTED quite a bit before landfall and made landfall on Galveston, not just south of Galveston

Agreed would have been better to say "even more devastating" as it was a devastating system by anybody's standards.

The point is that it was on the verge of becoming something even stronger had it some more time to complete the contraction cycle.

[Derek Ortt]

but the surge would have been lower had it contracted

[jinftl]

How stong would Ike have been in the GOM if he wasn't so big? Take for example the pressure reading on the Wednesday before landfall...946 mb with an estimated max wind of 100 mph. That is a S-S scale pressure reading you would expect with a mid-Cat 3.

The pressure was there to support a major (not that I am underemphasizing the surge, damage done, etc). More than shear, dry air, disruption over Cuba, I think the large size of Ike...the huge expanse of hurricane force winds....and the 'upkeep' of energy required to vent such an expansive system...prevented Ike from regaining major status....according to the accepted definition of major. But in reality...in the ways that matter to those living anywhere near his path along the coast...he was major. Not 'a major', but 'major'.

I hope to be corrected if I am wrong with this assertion....a storm like Katrina turned into a major and then exploded in size. Ike (post-Cuba) grew in size first....could that be why he didn't become a major in the Gulf en route to Texas? Was shear and dry air that much of a hinderance? The water was warm enough across his entire trek from Cuba to Texas. Did his size become a hinderance to the development of a major-status inner core?

[Bailey1777]

I live in La Porte, Texas N29.66-W95.05 and I stayed home for Ike. I assure you it was devestating. It is surreal to see the neighborhood that you know like the back of your hand look totally alien to you at daybreak. I can also attest that the backside was way worse than the front as the eye passed right over us. Without power it was strange because the eye took so long to pass it seemed as if the storm was over. And here in humid Tx instead of peace and tranquility in the eye it fealt like you were wearing the atmosphere and the mosquitoes were eating you alive.

[Derek Ortt]

some here need to stop being stuck on the maximum wind over a .0001 square mile area... which is what some are when they keep asking what Ike would have been had it became more intense

The main reasons that the damage was not as much as feared were because the windfield contracted before landfall and the storm hit over Galveston, not south of it. This also kept Houston out of sustained hurricane force winds.

notice... I did not mention the peak wind over a very small area. Did we not learn that lesson from Katrina?

[MGC]

As long as the NHC has its love fest with the SS scale, all hurricanes will be remembered in history by the SS rating the NHC assigns that particular storm at landfall. The general public, not the informed or educated, lump all similar category hurricanes together. So, Hurricane Dennis, Katrina and Rita, all Cat-3's at landfall are equal in many opinions. So, Ike was a 2 just like Georges was here on the Mississippi Coast, yet in reality Ike was by far a more formidable hurricane. The NHC needs to ditch the SS scale and come up with a scale that represents the true intensity of a hurricane, not just the sustained winds over a small area.......MGC

[Sambucol]

I live in La Porte, Texas N29.66-W95.05 and I stayed home for Ike. I assure you it was devestating. It is surreal to see the neighborhood that you know like the back of your hand look totally alien to you at daybreak. I can also attest that the backside was way worse than the front as the eye passed right over us. Without power it was strange because the eye took so long to pass it seemed as if the storm was over. And here in humid Tx instead of peace and tranquility in the eye it fealt like you were wearing the atmosphere and the mosquitoes were eating you alive.

I live in Baytown and can agree with what Bailey1777 said. It was devastating here, and the eye passed over us in Baytown, too. Definitely the backside of the storm was much worse than the front. Still, there are many people here that are rebuilding from what the hurricane destroyed. One thing that I will never forget is when I opened my front door during the passage of the eye was the overwhelming smell of lumber in the air from all the downed trees. And some of those trees where I live were 200 year old huge pecan trees. It was an utter shock when daylight finally came.