if this disturbance was in the GOM there would be post after post after post, now this bahama mama wave really isnt getting much mention, come on my east coast comrads....we cant let the gulfies have all the fun...LOL
just kidding, whats everyones take on this thing, last 2 or 3 vis shots look to be geeting a bit better organized??
east coast residents
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hurricanedude
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east coast residents
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JetMaxx
That's the same general area where both hurricane Bob (1991) and Belle (1976) formed at Dude...and a weather pattern is developing that could shoot this storm up the east coast...or just offshore.
It definitely bears watching by everyone along the U.S. East Coast...IMO especially from Myrtle Beach northward.
It definitely bears watching by everyone along the U.S. East Coast...IMO especially from Myrtle Beach northward.
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Rainband
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ColdFront77
The shear maps I have been looking at in the last one to three days doesn't indicate high wind shear.
It has been mentioned that conditions are becoming more favorable for tropical development where this disturbance is located.
Also, a frontal system is situated west to east from extreme southeastern Colorado, through Kansas to the Washington, D.C. area; opposed to north/south oriented from New York (state) to northern Mississippi. -- I can't see a low pressure system moving northward, parallel to the eastern seaboard with a front in this position.
It has been mentioned that conditions are becoming more favorable for tropical development where this disturbance is located.
Also, a frontal system is situated west to east from extreme southeastern Colorado, through Kansas to the Washington, D.C. area; opposed to north/south oriented from New York (state) to northern Mississippi. -- I can't see a low pressure system moving northward, parallel to the eastern seaboard with a front in this position.
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Scott_inVA
- Storm2k Forecaster
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Re: east coast residents
hurricanedude wrote:if this disturbance was in the GOM there would be post after post after post, now this bahama mama wave really isnt getting much mention, come on my east coast comrads....we cant let the gulfies have all the fun...LOL
just kidding, whats everyones take on this thing, last 2 or 3 vis shots look to be geeting a bit better organized??
dude,
You'll learn we on the coast are hideously outnumbered by GOMers :o
Since there's no such thing as a fish storm in the Gulf, they get worked up all the time
while we endure fish after fish.
But that's okay b/c they are usually nice to us when storms do come up the coast.
If WREL was located in LA and not VA, I'd make a fortune on all the TC stuff we do. GOMers can' get enough of it. LOL
Scott
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midlantwx
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Ok this is probably impossible........
But I'd like to see this bahama momma come up the coast, deepen into a Cat 2, enter the Chesapeake Bay a la Hurricane Debbie and take a nice little cruise following the Bay and carefully keeping its eye over the Bay, then come to a stationary position approx 60-90 miles SE of Woodbridge VA and give us some nice gusty winds, rainband after torrential rainband to the tune of 20 or much more inches of rain and throw a few weak spinoff tornadoes in to spice things up. After about three days of torrential rain and very, very high winds and a few close calls with F0 and F1 tornadoes, I'd like to see it move north at 3 miles per hour and take five more days to die out, dumping torrential rain all the while.
Hey, its HOT and HUMID here in the Mid Atlantic!!! We want some relief!!
The bahama momma is the sure way to get some sure-fire summer relief!! It's exciting too and there's never a dull moment!!!
You guys and gals down in the GOM can't have all the tropical systems! Relax and let all of us here in the Mid Atlantic show you how to weather a hurricane!!! Yeah!!
-A severe storm fanatic in the Mid Atlantic!!!
Hey, its HOT and HUMID here in the Mid Atlantic!!! We want some relief!!
The bahama momma is the sure way to get some sure-fire summer relief!! It's exciting too and there's never a dull moment!!!
You guys and gals down in the GOM can't have all the tropical systems! Relax and let all of us here in the Mid Atlantic show you how to weather a hurricane!!! Yeah!!
-A severe storm fanatic in the Mid Atlantic!!!
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GulfBreezer
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Stephanie wrote:This baby is all opened up - just a mass of clouds, no real form to it.
Oh well, better luck next time!
what? i dont think so. what is your source?
Last edited by wow on Mon Jul 28, 2003 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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wxman57
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wow wrote:Stephanie wrote:This baby is all opened up - just a mass of clouds, no real form to it.
Oh well, better luck next time!
what? i dont think so. what is your source?
It's pretty clear on any satellite imagery since about 10am this morning that all that's left is an area of very widely scattered showers with a few thunderstorms. There is no central mass of squalls any more. If this thing was to develop, it's at least 36-48 hours away from TD status. But by that time it may be moving off to the N-NNE. I'd give it at most a 5% chance of development, probably less than your average tropical wave.
And if you're thinking this thing may move to the west much, take a look at the 850mb and 700mb winds in about 24hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml
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ColdFront77
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Kevin_Gould
- Tropical Wave
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this system will be under a favorable environment and schedule Hurricane Hunter Aircraft to investigate the feature.<<
Your evidence speaks against itself. The area is favorable, and the storm in nonexistent. Hence, not developing. It may be favorable, but only if something is there which brings me to....
The hurricane hunter aircraft are scheduled there because maybe its better to tell them to get ready and cancel than to take the chance of waking them up with a depression off the coast? Yes, that is it.
The storm is so threatening that they cancel the flight there everytime.
*yawn* I'm looking towards the eastern atlantic. Conditions there are marginal, but at least there is a good bit of convection.
Your evidence speaks against itself. The area is favorable, and the storm in nonexistent. Hence, not developing. It may be favorable, but only if something is there which brings me to....
The hurricane hunter aircraft are scheduled there because maybe its better to tell them to get ready and cancel than to take the chance of waking them up with a depression off the coast? Yes, that is it.
The storm is so threatening that they cancel the flight there everytime.
*yawn* I'm looking towards the eastern atlantic. Conditions there are marginal, but at least there is a good bit of convection.
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JetMaxx
I'm always somewhat leery of a new poster that joins a forum...and immediately attacks a veteran poster with his first post.
While I don't happen to agree with Coldfront77 about this system, I do know he's a good guy...a friend; and I respect his analysis.
I know absolutely nothing about you Kevin...where you are from, or anything else about you. Please prove me wrong....my instincts screaming "troll alert" -- because trolls don't last long on this forum...even if they're name is DT aka WxRisk.com and they are a professional meteorologist.
Like I said....I personally disagree with Coldfront's theory on this system...but am gentleman enough not to critisize him in a sarchastic manner. You could learn some lessons friend.
Welcome to Storm2K...
PW
While I don't happen to agree with Coldfront77 about this system, I do know he's a good guy...a friend; and I respect his analysis.
I know absolutely nothing about you Kevin...where you are from, or anything else about you. Please prove me wrong....my instincts screaming "troll alert" -- because trolls don't last long on this forum...even if they're name is DT aka WxRisk.com and they are a professional meteorologist.
Like I said....I personally disagree with Coldfront's theory on this system...but am gentleman enough not to critisize him in a sarchastic manner. You could learn some lessons friend.
Welcome to Storm2K...
PW
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ColdFront77
Thank you Perry... It isn't that I don't agree with you.
We often hear that development isn't likely with a system and Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will not mention that they MAY fly into an area of convection that has been monitored for any signs of development. Instead, they would say that an area of disorganized convection is located so many miles from such and such and the chances for development are low.
We often hear that development isn't likely with a system and Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will not mention that they MAY fly into an area of convection that has been monitored for any signs of development. Instead, they would say that an area of disorganized convection is located so many miles from such and such and the chances for development are low.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Tue Jul 29, 2003 12:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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