S. Plains Severe April 17th to 19th?

[srainhoutx]

Bed time, hopefully no tornadoes near population centers for others after bedtime.

One spotted tornado out of NWS Lubbock, another radar indicated, and a radar indicated tornado out of NWS MAF. The confirmed Lubbock tornado started as a radar indicated cell.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1025 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CROSBY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
NORTHEASTERN LUBBOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1021 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO
APPROXIMATELY FOUR MILES SOUTH OF IDALOU...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH
OF SLATON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE IDALOU.

I still see an occasional pixel suggesting rotation near what could be an inflow notch, but it isn't strong or sustained, and that part of Texas, like most of the state more than 100 miles West of I-35 outside of a few small cities, is pretty sparse.

Myself Aso. Know that part of the world very well Ed. Great part of the state with the Nueces River near Camp Wood. Memories, but I digress.

[Texas Snowman]

Tornado confirmed by law enforcement SE of Spur, moving in the direction of Guthrie. Hope folks out that way have a NOAA weather radio to warn them if anything approaches town.

[Texas Snowman]

This could get serious...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1057 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

TXC125-269-433-170430-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-090417T0430Z/
KING TX-DICKENS TX-STONEWALL TX-
1057 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
STONEWALL...SOUTHEASTERN DICKENS AND SOUTHWESTERN KING COUNTIES...

AT 1055 PM CDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUTHRIE...NEAR THE DICKENS AND KING COUNTY LINE.
THIS DANGEROUS STORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...TOWARD GUTHRIE.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GUTHRIE.

A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED! TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING NOW.
MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES ARE NOT SAFE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Link



If the perpetual soup, a product of Gulf and BoC air moving over cold Texas shelf waters breaks up and allows about 10ºF of warming today, much of Texas and Louisiana could see an interesting day.

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0956 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159...

VALID 171456Z - 171630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159
CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN AN HOUR FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS
SE TX. MEANWHILE CONTINUE WW 159 BENEATH/AHEAD OF WRN MCS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT FROM GLS BAY WNWWD ACROSS
HOU METRO AREA TO BETWEEN SAT-AUS...INTERSECTING SRN PORTION OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST ABOVE BALCONES ESCARPMENT NNW OF SAT. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT NWD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY MCS OR
PRECURSORY CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW. INITIAL MCS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EWD OUT OF ERN PORTIONS HILL COUNTRY...AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
MOST OF ESCARPMENT AND I-35 BETWEEN ACT-AUS WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY ASCENT N OF WARM FRONT...BUT BOUNDARY IS
SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW THAT STG-SVR GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT STILL MAY
REACH SFC IN DAMAGING FORM. WITH NWD EXTENT...INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY/GRADUALLY MORE ELEVATED...AND MUCAPE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR WARM FRONT TO APPROXIMATELY
1000 J/KG JUST N OF WW. WIND THREAT LESSENS AND MRGL-SVR HAIL IS
PRIMARY CONCERN FROM NRN FRINGES OF WW TOWARD I-20.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE E OF
MCS...ACROSS ERN PORTIONS WW AND JUST W OF CLL-VCT LINE. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY TURN RIGHTWARD AND CONGEAL/DEVELOP INTO LEADING MCS
WITH TIME. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANY RELATIVELY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE
ACTIVITY TO ROTATE AND PERHAPS PRODUCE TORNADOES WITHIN WARM FRONTAL
ZONE...WHERE NRN PORTION OF MOST UNSTABLE SFC-BASED INFLOW OVERLAPS
FAVORABLY BACKED SFC WINDS AND ENLARGED BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS
BENEATH 40-55 KT LLJ. MODIFIED VWP/PROFILER WINDS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
EACH INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH 300-400 J/KG IN FRONTAL ZONE. CAPPING
SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SWD FROM FRONT...PER MODIFIED
CRP RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...LIMITING BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL
FROM TX COASTAL BEND AREA SWD.

..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2009


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at tornado watch just issued, those might be the lowest probabilities for tornadoes I have ever seen in a tornado watch.

30% and 10%, respectively.

[srainhoutx]

[Ed Mahmoud]

About the hatched hail in a narrow band between about CDS and SPS extending Southward toward Abilene...

Dry line and back edge of clouds are close. Those clouds will need to burn off some to maximize the chances of severe storms, possibly surface based as suggested by SWODY1 update.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1221 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CAT SPRING... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MONAVILLE...PINE ISLAND...HEMPSTEAD AND BELLVILLE.

[srainhoutx]

For folks in S TX areas...




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159...

VALID 171738Z - 171815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159
CONTINUES.

NEW WW -- EITHER REPLACEMENT OR ADD-ON -- WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE
SCHEDULED 18Z EXPIRATION OF WW 159...IN ORDER TO REFINE SVR THREAT
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO AREAS ALONG AND S OF CURRENT SRN SEGMENT OF
MCS.

DESPITE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD OVER...INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS FROM S OF
COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STEADY HEATING FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F TO BOOST
MLCAPE INTO 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FARTHER E -- IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LLJ MAX AND
WARM FRONT AND IN WW 160 -- 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THIS AREA
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND RELATED HAIL THREAT.
TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IS MODE DEPENDENT ON
STORM-SCALE PROCESSES THAN FARTHER E. FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW IS FCST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION -- 25-35 KT IN LOWEST
2 KM AGL. REF HEAVY RAINFALL MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 498 FOR THAT
HAZARD.

..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2009


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN CO...SW KS...AND THE OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171749Z - 171915Z

LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SERN CO...SW
KS...AND THE OK PANHANDLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

UPR AIR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SUBJECTIVE SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOW A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE OVER NRN-NERN NM.
AN OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT WAS OBSERVED EXTENDING E-SEWD AWAY FROM
THE LOW...POSITIONED OVER SERN CO INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE. E-SELY
LOW LVL FLOW N OF THE FRONT HAS MAINTAINED UPR 40S
DEWPOINTS...THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED IN COOL /LOW 50S/
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...RAPID CLEARING ACCOMPANIED BY BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY S OF THE FRONT. MODEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS TRANSITION ZONE
/AROUND 500 J PER KG OF MLCAPE/...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CAPE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEATING INCREASES
WITHIN THE CLEAR SLOT. AS A RESULT...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NEAR LHX TO 40 NE OF SPD TO LBL.

AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL...GIVEN THE COLD MID LVL
AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-35 KT...EFFECTIVE SRH AOB 100 M2 PER S2/.
HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS CHANGE FROM SSW TO ESE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY /RESULTING IN STRONG AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY/...AND 0-3
KM CAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 100-150 J/KG...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A
SMALL THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO EXISTS.

..GARNER.. 04/17/2009


ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
247 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY...
NORTHERN LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT.

* AT 247 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
HALLETTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SUBLIME AND SCHULENBURG.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nobody lives between LRD and SAT. Well, almost nobody, but they mostly live within a few miles of I-35, like in Cotulla and Pearsall, and just judging from reports in Webb County and reflectivity, if that cell holds together, it could be hailing much of the way to the San Antonio Metro.

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180444Z - 180545Z

THE THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORM. DUE
TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...NO WW IS ANTICIPATED.

AN ISOLATED...LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY EVOLVED FROM A
DECAYING TSTM CLUSTER S OF LRD WITH THIS STORM LOCATED OVER NERN
WEBB COUNTY AS OF 0430Z. USING A STORM MOTION OF 205/35 KT...RUC
PROXIMITY HODOGRAPHS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF -150 TO -200
M2/S2 WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THE ANTICYCLONIC SUPERCELL
WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...AS STORM
CONTINUES NEWD...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST A DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
THUS...EXPECT SUPERCELL TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA.

..MEAD.. 04/18/2009


ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

[Ed Mahmoud]

TXC289-181515-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-090418T1515Z/
LEON TX-
955 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL LEON COUNTY...

AT 955 AM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARQUEZ...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JEWETT BY 1005 AM CDT...

[Dave]

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH OF DODGE CITY
KANSAS TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF ALVA OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP BENEATH COLD UPPER
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KS. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTHWARD
ALONG DRYLINE INTO NORTHWEST OK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.
BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND AMBIENT VORTICITY
WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF TORNADOES IN THIS REGION.
OTHERWISE...SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT.

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 165...

DISCUSSION...AREA OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN LA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH STORMS...AND THREAT WILL
PERSIST AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND AMPLE MOISTURE. TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL/SE TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 181843Z - 182015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

HIGH PRECIPITATION SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
STORMS OCCURRING ALONG A LINE FROM 10 S OF HOU TO 50 N OF PSX...WITH
OCCASIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF LOW LVL ROTATION INDICATED BY KHGX SRV
DATA. OTHER STORMS /ONE ENTERING POLK COUNTY...AND A SECOND PASSING
NE OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA/ HAVE ALSO DISPLAYED STRENGTHENING LOW
LVL ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES. RUC/SFCOA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE STORMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW LVL WAA...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS /2-4 MB PER 2 HRS/ OVER
THE REGION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ASCENT /WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE TX-LA BORDER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON/ AND
VERY MOIST LOW LVL INFLOW...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE ENE AT AROUND 20-25 KT.

MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INVOF OF HOU INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES RESIDING
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MLLCL HEIGHTS NEAR 500 M. IN ADDITION...AREA
VWP DATA DISPLAYS LARGE LOW LVL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE...WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR AOA 35 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 500 M2/S2. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORMS PRODUCING STRONG LOW LVL ROTATION WITH A
THREAT OF TORNADOES.

[Dave]

FINNEY KS-HODGEMAN KS-GRAY KS-
209 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN GRAY...WEST CENTRAL HODGEMAN AND EAST CENTRAL FINNEY
COUNTIES...

AT 208 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 1 MILE SOUTHEAST OF
KALVESTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KALVESTA...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF EASTERN FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRAY AND WESTERN
HODGEMAN COUNTIES.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

[brunota2003]

There has got to be a tornado on the ground with that Kansas storm...+53 -53 knot velocities right against each other and a very nice hook echo on Reflectivity.

SRV (find the tornado):