This area has been around for at least 4 days now. In addition there is some long range model support of a low developing or moving into this area.
Shear
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1040.shtml?
...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A W ATLC FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO THE
BELIZE. MOIST SWLY UPPER FLOW AND SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LIES
OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 81W. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS PARTIALLY TIED TO THE ITCZ AND FURTHER ENHANCED BY
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN. STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING
SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS AREA INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN
BUT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN...
STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THERE IS A
TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG HIGH PRES TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE W ATLC.
...
Not much danger of development, of course.
