WPAC: Invest 93W

[cycloneye]

Looks interesting.Lets see if this system turns into the first Cyclone of 2009 at the WPAC.Nothing from JTWC yet.



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[Iune]

Looks interesting.Lets see if this system turns into the first Cyclone of 2009 at the WPAC.Nothing from JTWC yet.



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Is it the area of clouds north of Papua New Guinea?

[cycloneye]

North of Papua Guinea.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

There is some convection there so it may need watching though its still pretty messy!

[cycloneye]

It appears an anticyclone is building over the system.

[HURAKAN]

A circulation appears present.

[cycloneye]

ABPW10 PGTW 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/222200Z-230600ZAPR2009//
RMKS/

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.4N 143.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR THE PAST 12
HOURS. A 221208Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE LLCC IS ELONGATED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED ALONG
THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE
FAVORABLE WITH THE REGION FOR DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON
GOOD SST, FAVORABLE VWS, PERSISTENT CONVECTION, BUT AN ILL-DEFINED
LLCC THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZAPR2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 143.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH EVIDENCE OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDERNEATH. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION HAS ABATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE LLCC REMAINS
INTACT WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIF-
FLUENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES - ALL FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to poor.

ABPW10 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231400Z-240600ZAPR2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 140.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS ELONGATED AND CONVECTION HAS FRAGMENTED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTUR-
BANCE IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE DETERIO-
RATION OF THE LLCC AND THE REDUCED AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

[cycloneye]

Remains poor.

ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZAPR2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8N
142.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 141.8E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW WEAK CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS A SERIES OF WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED LOW
TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE AREA OF MAXIMUM CYCLONIC
TURNING AT THE SURFACE LIES UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BECAUSE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO IDENTIFIABLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AND THE CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND
WEAK, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[cycloneye]

Nothing has changed to upgrade this system as it continues to be disorganized.

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8N
142.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 141.8E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW WEAK CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS A SERIES OF WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED LOW
TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE AREA OF MAXIMUM CYCLONIC
TURNING AT THE SURFACE LIES UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BECAUSE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO IDENTIFIABLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AND THE CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND
WEAK, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.