Central Plains/Midwest weekend severe?

[Ed Mahmoud]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT WED APR 22 2009

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE MREF...REGARDING THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN
THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. BUT...REASONABLE ENOUGH AGREEMENT APPEARS TO EXIST
CONCERNING THE EMERGENCE OF ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE FROM
THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE NORTHEASTWARD
MIGRATION OF A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...INTO AND THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE PRECEDED BY A SUBSTANTIVE GULF
RETURN FLOW BENEATH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ASSOCIATED
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE
POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS.

..KERR.. 04/22/2009

Slow moving system, and Sunday looks especially interesting per Euro, with severe possible Oklahoma to Lakes Superior and Michigan

[RL3AO]

First slight risk of the year! So exciting.

[Ed Mahmoud]

First slight risk of the year! So exciting.

A sure sign Snow Season is transitioning to Mud Season, then Mosquito Season...

[RL3AO]

Mud season was pretty short since this spring has been so dry. If mosquitoes want to hold off a few months, I'm fine with that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hatched areas on SWODY2

...MID MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS INDICATE THAT VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8-9
DEG C/ WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
...COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE...APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATELY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION. FURTHER MOISTENING WITH AN INITIAL SURGE OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS WILL
INITIATE FIRST...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NEAR A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE...WHERE
CAPPING MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAKER. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE
CLOCKWISE CURVED...AND SOMEWHAT SIZABLE... BENEATH 30+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION. AND...THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN DEVELOPING
SUPERCELLS...DESPITE A SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY MODEST STRENGTH TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...WITH A CONSOLIDATION INTO A GROWING
STORM CLUSTER POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AIDED BY A
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A NORTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK.

ALTHOUGH GREATER INHIBITION MAY RESULT IN SLOWER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...A
MOISTURE SURGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING CAP BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 25/00Z.
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES...ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION. A FEW SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING ON THE NOSE OF A
CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS WITHIN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE... IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE...HAIL/ WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE
PROMINENT...SOME OF WHICH MIGHT BECOME PARTICULARLY LARGE/STRONG.
DESPITE THE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER FORCING...IT STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO A FAIRLY LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DURING EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. IF THIS
OCCURS...HIGH SURFACE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE...AND COULD
SPREAD TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 04/23/2009

If that weren't enough, SWODY3 has much of Kansas and Oklahoma in a 30% and hatched area, with the SLIGHT RISK extending as far Northeast as the Quad Cities.


Day 4 looks similar in shape to Day 3's outlook.

[CrazyC83]

It doesn't look like the tornado threat will be that big though, but that could change.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the cold front will be right over me by tomorrow evening. Most of the storms will stay south and east and west...but not north. Well, maybe northeast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Next 3 days - SLIGHT RISK for Upper Mississippi Valley!

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA...SOUTHEAST MN AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242018Z - 242245Z

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST WI SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO NORTHEAST NEB. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXISTED FROM NEAR MINOCQUA-EAU CLAIRE WI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
ROCHESTER MN THEN TO THE OMAHA AREA. SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS OF 55-61 DEG F COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPES NEARING 2500 J PER
KG. HOWEVER...RECENT AMDAR SOUNDING FROM A DESCENDING AIRCRAFT INTO
MINNEAPOLIS SHOWED A 17 DEG WARM NOSE REMAINING NEAR 800 MB.
THUS...IT APPEARS THE BUBBLING CUMULUS FIELD BEGINNING OVER
NORTHEAST IA...SOUTHEAST MN AND SOUTHWEST WI WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR
A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT LEAST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTENING OCCURRING UPSTREAM OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...APPARENTLY IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET
MOVING FROM SD INTO MN. EXPECT THAT THIS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM THROUGH 00Z...LOCALLY ENHANCING THE
PRE-FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND ACT TO WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
THE RESULT SHOULD LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE
23-00Z TIME FRAME FROM NORTHWEST WI SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL IA.

BLUE RIVER WI/WOOD LAKE MN PROFILERS LARGELY EXHIBIT A
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR WILL
REMAIN IN THE COLDER AIR...BUT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE WARM
SECTOR BY THIS EVENING. THUS...EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INITIALLY
FORM IN SMALL CLUSTERS...THEN EXPAND INTO A LINEAR BAND BY EARLY
EVENING. COLD POOL PRODUCTION WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL SCALE BOWS/LEWPS GIVING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AS UPDRAFTS FIRST FORM ALONG PRE-EXISTING
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IN VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM CLOSER TO AND ABOVE THE
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL SURFACE FROM NORTHERN WI SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MN
AND NORTHWEST IA LATER THIS EVENING. SOME HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

..RACY.. 04/24/2009

[6SpeedTA95]

Looks like things will get serious later this afternoon west of I35. Initiation will take place just west of the ok/tx border in the tx panhandle. Not sure if I'm going to chase today, tomorrow/monday may put me in a better position...but in either case this is going to be very interesting.

I also think we may see a hatched 15% area at the next SPC update, as opposed to just 15%. The LCL's bottom out after 7pm and the LLJ really starts to kickup, hodographs are very impressive, skewT's also very impressive. We may have several strong F2+ tornadoes this evening.

[CrazyC83]

Hail is the biggest threat today (main basis for MDT, the 15 tornado may be generous), but not so tomorrow:

SPC AC 251729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A WELL-DEFINED 75 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY OUT OF THE BASE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WILL CREATE
A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. AT
LOW-LEVELS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 45 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING NNEWD
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS WILL
BECOME JUXTAPOSED AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MAIN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN OK...CNTRL AND ERN KS...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WCNTRL
TX.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD AWAY FROM
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION FROM CNTRL KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK...THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WCNTRL TX. MODEL FORECASTS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE CAP BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON
INITIATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAMKF AT 21Z ACROSS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA SHOW DEEP UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AIDED BY THE MID-LEVEL JET SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 40 TO
55 KT WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ADEQUATE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. CURVED HODOGRAPHS
ALONG WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IF THE CONVECTION ONGOING
SUNDAY MORNING DOES INDEED MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION...THEN
A TORNADO OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUNDAY ALSO SUGGEST THE STORMS SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCERS. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY FROM SCNTRL KS SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE...WRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATEST FROM ECNTRL KS ACROSS WRN OK WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE
ACROSS WCNTRL TX WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
GREAT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY
SUPERCELLS AND LINE-SEGMENTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES AND LINE-SEGMENTS APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

...UPPER MIDWEST AND SRN GREAT LAKES...
A BROAD ZONE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING ROCKIES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SFC...A LOW SHOULD
ORGANIZE INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE DOMINATE STORM MODE REMAINS IN QUESTION...SUPERCELLS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN THE
EARLY EVENING. IF THE DOMINANT MODE IS LINEAR WHICH THE HIGH RES
MODELS FAVOR...THEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH BOWING-LINE SEGMENTS.

A WARM FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO EXIST ESEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SE
MN...FAR SRN WI INTO LOWER MI. IF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
INITIATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST DUE TO ADEQUATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS GA...THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE NRN APPALACHIANS. AT
THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIST NEAR THE
NEW YORK-PENNSYLVANIA STATE-LINE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT
ALL AGREE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
CONVECTION MOVING EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE FRONT AT 21Z SUGGEST MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST. HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS.

..BROYLES.. 04/25/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1741Z (1:41PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[6SpeedTA95]

Large moderate box up for tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I should be near SPS by 0Z tomorrow...

[CrazyC83]

SPS represents what?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sheppard Air Force Base/Wichita Falls.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...WESTERN OK...SOUTH CENTRAL
KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251823Z - 252100Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE 22Z.

IN WAKE OF A LEAD DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SATELLITE SUGGESTS WEAK RIDGING RAPIDLY TRANSLATING OUT OF
NM. BACK EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING IS EXTRAPOLATED TO CLEAR
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS 21-22Z WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
THEREAFTER.

COLD FRONT HAS ESSENTIALLY STALLED FROM NORTHWEST OF
WICHITA-WOODWARD-AMARILLO WITH THE DRYLINE BEGINNING TO MIX EAST
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. CLEARING NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY SIGNAL
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE MIXES INTO THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE AROUND 22Z ALONG THE
DRYLINE/FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE TOWARD CHILDRESS 22-00Z.
MLCAPES WILL RANGE 2000-2500 J/KG.

SOMEWHAT ANEMIC VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES NOTED CURRENTLY SHOULD
IMPROVE BY INITIATION TIME AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD. WIND PROFILES WILL
BECOME VERY CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH GIANT HAIL GREATER THAN 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN FACT...AS THE GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 55 KTS DURING THE EVENING.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY MAINTAIN DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS RICH
MOISTURE INFLOW CONTINUES...BUT ALSO BOOST 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY TO AT OR ABOVE 400 M2/S2. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES WHICH MAY LAST
WELL BEYOND SUNSET ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/ NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.

..RACY.. 04/25/2009


ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34260079 35560082 37729774 37779705 36049761 34379845
34259973 34260079

[6SpeedTA95]

Man guys I hope I made the right choice holding off chasing until tomorrow...

[6SpeedTA95]

I think we'll have a PDS watch within the hour.

[RL3AO]

I don't think the tornado threat is high enough for a PDS.

[6SpeedTA95]

I don't think the tornado threat is high enough for a PDS.

It may not be, and as most of you know I'm not one to cry wolf, but I can tell you the dynamics are better than I anticipated and the threat of a couple strong tornadoes is growing more likely as new data comes in. Some moisture pooling and the LCL's bottoming after 7pm make the threat especially dangerous. The biggest tornado threat will be between 6pm and midnight with the threat of strong tornadoes becoming pronounced from 7pm to 11ish this evening. I think we'll see a watchr egardless here shortly, PDS? I dunno but I wouldn't be surprised given the dynamics falling into place.