Tornado potential for I, Ed Mahmoud, near SPS

[Ed Mahmoud]

Driving up Monday, we're getting a rig, and spudding a well about 20 miles West-SouthWest of Wichita Falls.

GFS suggests some interesting weather possible early next week, and the potential for heavy rain on Monday.


We are getting a little travel trailer for me to sleep and work in/write reports, while I sit the well, but Houston based cell phones don't work very well out in this field, and I'm not sure the laptop has interweb access anyway.


The field office, a few miles away, does have interweb access, so I may get to check Storm2K occasionally. But not all the time.


Because of proximity to the Big Wichita River, there are actually some trees around, so visibility isn't perfect.


I have already told them I have to leave for about 36 hours starting Saturday to drive back to HOU for my son's First Communion on Sunday, May 3rd. I hope we have TD'd and logged by then. The other guy heading up, I'd actually prefer if he tallied and ran the long string.

But that will take some fine timing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

They got the rig early, I'll be leaving Houston after Mass, around Noon.


Lately, I have been taking 290 to Highway 6 near Brenham and then Highway 6 through the land time forgot up to Waco, then 35W to 287, then catching US 82 in SPS to head out to Western Wichita County. A little more scenic, and usually I-45 is a real pain even on weekends around Conroe because of the Woodlands, and then one has to drive across the entire DFW Metroplex.

Anyway, aired up tires, came to work for a couple of hours to catch up as best I can to miss a week in the office.

Tomorrow's drive:

...SRN PLAINS...

ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRIMARILY NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THOUGH
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP EARLY CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS. SOME HAIL MIGHT
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE EARLY STORMS. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EAST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ABOVE WRN
PERIPHERY OF MOIST AXIS. IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD MIX OUT FROM THE WEST AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM WRN TX INTO WRN OK AND SWRN KS. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND EAST OF
DRYLINE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. BULK
SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SIZE OF 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPH WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TOWARD
EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PROBABLE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
ONE OR MORE MCSS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET.
THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD THROUGH OK AND TX.

Day 3 and Day 5 may also be interesting, per SPC.

The late afternoon drive up US 287 in Wise, Montague, Clay and Wichita Counties has the advantage of generally flat terrain and not to many trees.

Flooding rain seems possible, and the travel trailer I'll be working out of is near the Big Wichita River. That means trees nearby. May not be best place if severe weather actually develops.

[somethingfunny]

Stay safe, have fun, and take pictures if you can!

edit: 8.6"?

[Ed Mahmoud]

When my family moved down to Texas, the Wichita Falls tornado was still recent news.

[KatDaddy]

Chilling to see after all those years Ed. That was the 1979 SPS tornado. You may see some Supercell action this week.

[Ed Mahmoud]