Central Plains/Midwest weekend severe?

[CrazyC83]

They're going high risk guys.

This is EXTREMELY serious. Could be a repeat of May 3, 1999?

[RL3AO]

SVRs in TX panhandle/SW OK

[RL3AO]

[RL3AO]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KS AND WESTERN OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
EASTERN AND CENTRAL KS...ACROSS CENTRAL OK...THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

A COMPLICATED...YET SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF NORTH TX/OK/KS. THE RESULT WILL BE A LARGE
AREA OF CONCERN FOR SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE/ COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL KS...ACROSS WESTERN OK...INTO WESTERN NORTH TX.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL BE PRESENT OVER A
MUCH LARGER AREA.

..KS/NEB/IA

MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KS/SOUTHEAST NEB/MUCH OF IA IN REGION OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT. AIRMASS IS RECOVERING
QUICKLY IN THIS REGION...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EPISODES OF STRONG CONVECTION IN
THIS AREA TODAY.

..SOUTH CENTRAL KS/WESTERN OK/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE

A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000+ J/KG AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S. MORNING RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RATHER WEAK CAPPING INVERSION OVER THIS AREA...ALLOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL
OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM APPROACHES. GIVEN THE WEAK
CAP...IT APPEARS THAT BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
HELP TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS AND REDUCE VERTICAL MIXING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL ALSO BE VERY FAVORABLE WITH LARGE...CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OVER 500 M2/S2. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS VERY INCONSISTENT IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A POTENT
ENVIRONMENT...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...AND MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MEASURES INDICATING A
WIDESPREAD RISK OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...FEEL THERE IS SUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO
WESTERN OK.

..WEST TX

STRONG HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WESTERN NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHWEST TX. SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS AXIS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/26/2009

[6SpeedTA95]

Holy hell, 30% hatched for tornadoes

[RL3AO]

Holy hell, 30% hatched for tornadoes

Thats what you need for high risk (or 60% H wind).

[CrazyC83]

How far do OKC stations cover, all the way to the boundary of the Panhandle?

[MGC]

Things are all ready starting to pop. Gonna be a long day in OK, KS....chaser paradise...MGC

[RL3AO]

The dryline is still near Amarillo and the 500mb trough is still in NM. It will be a few more hours before things really start to get going.

[6SpeedTA95]

I'm a little bit worried about the ongoing convection watering down this afternoons potential but at this piont it doesn't appear to be aggravating the atmosphere a whole lot.

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF
PROTECTION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PROTECTION...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF EASTERN CLARK...NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE AND
SOUTHERN KIOWA COUNTIES.

Cell should be near/east of Greensburg is 45 minutes or so.

[6SpeedTA95]

The dryline is still near Amarillo and the 500mb trough is still in NM. It will be a few more hours before things really start to get going.

Yes sir, thats the general thinking, we're heading out in about an hour, that should put us in place about 3:30 pm cdt.

[CrazyC83]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF
PROTECTION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PROTECTION...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF EASTERN CLARK...NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE AND
SOUTHERN KIOWA COUNTIES.

Cell should be near/east of Greensburg is 45 minutes or so.

At least it is daytime.

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1220 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT.

* AT 1219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELLSWORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ELLSWORTH.

[6SpeedTA95]

I'm a little nervous with OKC in the 15% hatched area now.

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
NORTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
NORTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HAVILAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAVILAND...
WELLSFORD...
TROUSDALE...
HOPEWELL...
BYERS...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHEASTERN KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN PRATT...
SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS AND SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD COUNTIES.

Will go just a few miles east of Greensburg.

[RL3AO]

Started to get going in Kansas.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 261727Z - 261930Z

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
AN HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
KS INTO SERN NEB.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY EXTENDING NEWD FROM
NEAR DDC THROUGH CNK AND INTO SERN NEB. MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN ERN NM HAS LED TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE A
RICH MOISTURE INFLUX...AND 12Z SOUNDING PWAT ANALYSIS REFLECTS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY...WITH A
MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON SATELLITE JUST S OF CURRENT CONVECTION. MEAN
FLOW ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT TRAINING
CELLS. ALTHOUGH RADAR DERIVED PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES LIKELY ARE
SOMEWHAT HAIL CONTAMINATED AND OVERESTIMATED...RECENT OBSERVATIONS
OF RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR OR GREATER SEEM REASONABLE...GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT.

..HURLBUT.. 04/26/2009


ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 37759858 36959965 37370018 38699893 40109782 40799653
40799592 40419574 38689776 38099818 37759858

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261730Z - 261830Z

WRMFNT HAS MADE STEADY PROGRESS NWD INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AND SWRN
IA WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S AND SFC DEW POINTS
LWR/MID 60S. SFC ANALY PLACES A MESOLOW INVOF KCNK THAT SHOULD
RIPPLE NEWD TOWARD THE KOMA REGION BY 21Z. ENHANCED SELY LLVL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM WILL BOOST 0-1KM SRH SUFFICIENT FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELL STORMS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO EXHIBIT LLVL ROTATION ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND
EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO UNFOLD FARTHER NE WITH TIME. AS
SUCH...PARTS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA WILL NEED A TORNADO WATCH SOON.

..RACY.. 04/26/2009


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 40149736 41349587 42059447 42139344 41259357 40449487
40059564 40109595 40149736

[KatDaddy]

Hey 65SpeedTA95 where is your 3:30PM location? Be safe out there........no doubt will be some very intense supercells later the day. I keep checking out IP Cam at one of our plants near Pampa, Texas. So far the storms have NE and E of that area and the Cams point to the West.