Banda Sea: KIRRILY - ex-Tropical Cyclone (27S)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 19 April 2009

A tropical low, 1006 hPa, is situated in the Timor Sea, about 500 kilometres
north of Darwin, near 8S 130E. The low is expected to remain slow moving over
the next three days, and may slowly develop.

The likelihood of a Tropical Cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Monday: low,
Tuesday: low,
Wednesday: moderate.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[cycloneye]

Is 95S trying to make a little comeback?

[cycloneye]

SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 8.3S 135.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. A 242216Z SSMI/S IMAGE SUPPORTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 242048Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWED A
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE LLCC LOCATED EQUATORWARD
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY AND
IS UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Fair

SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 135.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 136.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTHEAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEEPENED AND HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 251125Z TRMM MICROWAVE
PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE LLCC LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE
QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPS21 PGTW 260100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 7.8S 135.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 260030Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 135.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S
136.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 135.8E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-
EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
252204Z SSMI/S IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE
WESTERN QUADRANT INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA HAS BEEN UNAVAILABLE, HOWEVER, A 25/18Z SHIP REPORT FROM
VDRX2, LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM SSW, INDICATED WINDS OF 110/24 AND
SLP OF 1008.5 MB. THIS SUPPORTS THE ESTIMATED 25-30 KNOT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA. ADDITIONALLY, SST, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND MOISTURE ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TRACK MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW AND
ERRATIC BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 270100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

25/2030 UTC 7.8S 135.9E T2.0/2.0 95S -- Southwest Pacific

[Chacor]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 26 April 2009

A developing tropical low, 1005 hPa, is situated in the northern Arafura Sea,
near 8S 135E. The low is expected to move slowly northwest away from the NT
coast. The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone has increased in
the past 24 hours.

The likelihood of a Tropical Cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Monday: moderate,
Tuesday: moderate,
Wednesday: moderate.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:08S135E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0727 UTC 26 APRIL 2009

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 50 nautical miles of
latitude seven decimal six south [7.6S]
longitude one hundred and thirty five decimal two east [135.2E]
Recent movement : west northwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1004 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 25 knots, increasing to 30 knots in the northern semicircle and
35 knots in the southern semicircle, by 0000 UTC 27 April, with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 26 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 7.0 south 134.6 east
Central pressure 1005 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 27 April: Within 110 nautical miles of 6.3 south 133.8 east
Central pressure 1003 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots in southern semicircle.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 212.

Next warning will be issued by 1330 UTC 26 April 2009.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Chacor]

WTAU03 ADRM 261327
IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:08S135E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1319 UTC 26 APRIL 2009

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 50 nautical miles of
latitude seven decimal five south [7.5S]
longitude one hundred and thirty four decimal eight east [134.8E].
Recent movement : west northwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre


FORECAST
The low may develop into a Tropical cyclone in the next 6-12 hours. Maximum
winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 1200 UTC 27 April.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 27 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 7.1 south 133.7 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 27 April: Within 110 nautical miles of 6.0 south 133.2 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 212.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 26 April 2009.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[cycloneye]

WTXS31 PGTW 262100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260100Z APR 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 7.3S 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.3S 134.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 6.7S 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 5.8S 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 5.1S 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 4.7S 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 7.1S 134.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTHEAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261623Z AMSU IMAGE
DEPICT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECT-
IVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION AND TRACK BASED ON THE IMPROVED LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY AND DECISION TO WARN WAS BASED ON THE TIGHTER WRAP
AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. TC 27S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD STEERING
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH THE ARU ISLANDS. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PEAKING AT
40-45 KNOT INTENSITY AFTER TAU 24. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 260100Z APR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 260100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND
272100Z.//
BT

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1940 UTC 26/04/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 7.1S
Longitude: 134.6E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: north northwest [334 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0600: 6.5S 133.6E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 1001
+24: 27/1800: 5.5S 132.0E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 998
+36: 28/0600: 4.6S 130.8E: 140 [265]: 040 [075]: 997
+48: 28/1800: 4.2S 129.7E: 175 [325]: 040 [075]: 997
+60: 29/0600: 4.0S 128.5E: 220 [410]: 040 [075]: 998
+72: 29/1800: 3.9S 127.5E: 270 [500]: 040 [075]: 997
REMARKS:
Low is continuing movement to northnorthwest under the influence of the midlevel
ridge. Position is based on reasonable agreement between latest IR and 3.9
micron imagery and 89 GHz AMSUB imagery at 1623UTC after navigation correction.
Environment for development appears favourable. However, structure of the
system in satellite imagery has waned somewhat over recent hours, with decreased
curvature in convective bands. Dvorak FT of 2.0 based on DT 2.0 from 0.3 spiral
wrap. MET and PT agree. CI held up at 2.5.

Model prognoses are in good agreement on continued movement towards the
northwest over the coming days, with system in easterly steering north of the
mid-level ridge. Development forecast, based on extrapolation of slow
development trend over last 24 hours, is for TC formation within next 24 hours.
However, development may be hindered by unfavourble interactions with islands,
and in the longer term vertical shear will become unfavourable as the system
moves north of the upper ridge axis.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[KWT]

Doesn't look too bad right now, good convective coverage, just a question of how much land hinders the system.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 APR 2009 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 6:54:31 S Lon : 133:59:15 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.2 3.4 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -39.3C Cloud Region Temp : -63.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0133 UTC 27/04/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 6.7S
Longitude: 134.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: north northwest [334 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [222 km]
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/1200: 6.0S 133.8E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 1000
+24: 28/0000: 4.9S 132.5E: 110 [205]: 045 [085]: 995
+36: 28/1200: 4.3S 131.5E: 140 [265]: 050 [095]: 991
+48: 29/0000: 4.1S 130.4E: 175 [325]: 045 [085]: 994
+60: 29/1200: 3.9S 129.1E: 220 [410]: 035 [065]: 1000
+72: 30/0000: 3.9S 128.4E: 270 [500]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
Good position fix based on MTSAT VIS animation, 3.9 micron and microwave
imagery. Convective structure has improved in the past 6 hours, with tighter
band curvature and good outflow in southern and western sectors. Dvorak FT of
2.5 based on DT 2.5 from 0.5 spiral wrap. MET and PT agree.

The low has moved north northwest under the influence of low to mid-level ridge
to the SW. Model prognoses are in good agreement on continued movement towards
the west northwest over the coming days, with steering dominated by a
strengthening mid-level ridge to the south. The environment remains favourable
for development with good upper divergence, and weak vertical wind shear. TC
formation may be delayed during passage over the Aru Archipelago, but there is
potential for more rapid intensification within 24-36 hours. Longer term
intensification may be hindered by vertical wind shear as the system moves
further north of the upper ridge axis.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 6.4S 134.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.4S 134.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 5.7S 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 4.9S 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 5.3S 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 5.9S 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 6.2S 133.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 270504Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH MULTIPLE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM KNES AND PGTW WITH A FAIR
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. TC 27S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTH-
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 27S WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
FIRST 12-24 HOURS DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE ARU ISLANDS AND
WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALOFT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO OPEN WATER AND VWS
RELAXES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0738 UTC 27/04/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 6.5S
Longitude: 134.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [304 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/1800: 5.9S 133.4E: 060 [110]: 050 [095]: 991
+24: 28/0600: 5.3S 132.3E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 988
+36: 28/1800: 5.0S 131.2E: 125 [230]: 060 [110]: 984
+48: 29/0600: 4.9S 130.2E: 155 [285]: 050 [095]: 991
+60: 29/1800: 5.1S 129.3E: 205 [375]: 040 [075]: 997
+72: 30/0600: 5.4S 128.7E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
Fair position fix based on MTSAT VIS animation and microwave imagery. Satellite
imagery indicates tight band curvature and a persistent small CDO. Good outflow
is evident in southern and western sectors. Dvorak DT 3.0 from 0.7 spiral wrap.
MET and PT agree. The system now has been named TC "Kirrily".

The system has continued moving northwest under the influence of low to
mid-level ridge to the SW. The consensus of MWP models indicates west northwest
movement over the next 2 days, with steering dominated by a strengthening
mid-level ridge to the south. The environment remains favourable with good upper
divergence, weak vertical wind shear and deep moisture near the system. A
standard development rate is forecast as the TC moves away from the Aru
Archipelago, possibly reaching T4.0 within 24 hours. In the longer term,
intensification may be hindered by dry air to the west and increasing vertical
wind shear as the system moves north of the upper ridge axis.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.