#163 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 26, 2009 6:43 pm
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW TX.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 193...
VALID 262325Z - 270130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 193 CONTINUES.
CONTINUE WW. TWO COUNTIES HAVE BEEN MOVED INTO THIS WW FROM WW 192
-- HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON. NEW/REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED
BEFORE SCHEDULED 03Z EXPIRATION.
COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS OVER I-10 INCLUDES SUPERCELL THAT HAS PRODUCED
TORNADO WITHIN PAST HOUR IN W-CENTRAL CROCKETT COUNTY...ALONG WITH
VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL OVER 4 INCHES DIAMETER NEAR SHEFFIELD
TX. OTHER SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD TO NEWD FROM
PORTIONS STERLING/MITCHELL COUNTIES...INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH EWD EXTENT...E.G. 0-1 KM SRH
GENERALLY 200-350 J/KG BASED ON AVAILABLE VWP DATA AND MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS. INFLOW REGION ACROSS AREAS OF SW TX AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY BACKED SFC WINDS ENHANCING
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND ELONGATING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DESPITE
SOME KINEMATIC WEAKNESSES APPARENT IN 1-3 KM LAYER. SFC DEW POINTS
MID 60S F ARE ANALYZED UPSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH PW
ABOVE 1.5 INCH...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY-PRECIP STORM
CHARACTER WITH RAIN RATES ABOVE 3 INCHES/HOUR IN ADDITION TO MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT EACH WEAKENS WITH SWD
EXTENT...WHILE MLCINH WEAKENS. THESE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE...HOWEVER...OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED INITIATION OF SVR TSTMS
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OVER MEX MOUNTAINS OF NRN COAHUILA. ANY SUCH
DEVELOPMENT WOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD RIO GRANDE AND INTO
STRONGER CAPPING. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES TCU AND BRIEFLY GLACIATED
CB OVER THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT PRIND ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN MEX FOR SEVERAL HOURS. GREATER CONCERN FOR
ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF WW IS WITH I-10 ACTIVITY TURNING TOWARD
JCT-ECU AREA.
..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2009
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 29850232 30570239 32120179 32810115 33359907 32189903
31809933 31399958 30259963 29480016 28260026 28530038
29190078 29590128 29760140 29770174 29850232
0 likes