Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[gatorcane]

anomalies are trending above normal now across most of the Western Atlantic now, reminiscent of 2005 if these trends continue.

It supports an active season. I'd be shocked if we are near average this season (those of you on the low side who want to revise your storm2k numbers, I would do so while you can )

[tolakram]

I won't change.

2005 was a fluke. Low shear, warm waters and disturbances in the right place at the right time. Even if we get warm waters there is no firm prediction yet on shear or if we'll see a lot of disturbances. I think we'll see increased shear from a weak Nino plus African Dust to dampen development.

But really, who knows!

[cycloneye]

The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential factor is important for systems to grow rapidly.But so far 2009 TCHP is less than in 2008 although its still early.

2008



2009

[jinftl]

Obviously as sea temps rise,TCHP will increase overall...TCHP is a factor to look at in assessing if rapid intensification of a system is possible....but systems can develop and maintain themselves in area of low TCHP as long as the water closest to the surface is warm enough (generally 80+).

Raises an interesting pre-season question...where do we stand now compared to average for the time of year...latest Heat Anomaly map shows that the 300m depth of water has higher heat content than normal across the Gulf and part of the Atlantic south of 15N. Areas to the north in the central Atlantic are below normal. The Gulf anomalies could lend to early development in that area if it persists....by June the Gulf will be in the 80s (or rapidly approaching)...that's not the question...but if the depth of warm water and the resulting TCHP are higher than normal....could be a factor favoring early storms.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/G ... 00.30d.gif

Overall, compared to the same time last year, the Gulf is a bit warmer..as is the atlantic off the east-central florida coast. Bay of Campeche is significantly warmer than last year....water already in the 80s.

May 1, 2008:


May 1, 2009:

The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential factor is important for systems to grow rapidly.But so far 2009 TCHP is less than in 2008 although its still early.

[cycloneye]

The Loop Current is expanding to the NW,also the Bay of Campeche is warming.

[jinftl]

The Gulf, Bay of Campeche, and NW Caribbean are warmer right now than they were a year ago..quite a bit in some places. Given that this is the area to look for early season development....water temps will not be a deterrent to develop if all the other pieces needed come together just right.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Seems like sunny and warm (low 90s inland) days are getting the near Texas Gulf warmer. Not quite there yet, but should be by June 1.

Galveston Buoy.

[JonathanBelles]

Water temps here have cracked the 80 degree mark.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Water temps here have cracked the 80 degree mark.

Looks like all the Gulf will be warm enough for TCs by June 1, but I don't think that is that unusual.


Check out this date in 2006...

[Ivanhater]

May 13

[cycloneye]

Latest Reynolds ssts and anomalies update shows the MDR for the most part slightly below average,Caribbean on average,GOM is above average and the North-Central Atlantic is above average.The biggest change in this update was the Eastern Atlantic,where waters are more warmer than in the past 3 months when they were well below average.

[cycloneye]

The Western Caribbean has increased heat potential.

[cycloneye]

The Eastern Atlantic for the past 5 months has been the area in the whole basin with very below normal ssts and anomalies.But in the past 2 weeks,those waters haved warmed to normal levels with some small pockets of slightly above average temps.Lets see if this warming trend continues in the comming weeks or this is something temporary.

[KWT]

I suspect the higher temps near 0 degrees latitude may be feeding northwards warming up the Eastern Atlantic, along with a shift in weather patterns.

[hurricanetrack]

Yeah, what is up with that band of significantly warmer than avg water temps in the Atlantic along the Equator? Anyone venture to guess why we are seeing that?

And, as noted in other posts on this topic, the eastern Atlantic has gone from quite a bit below normal to pretty much normal overall- with some areas of .5 - 1.0 C above normal. Of course, let's see what this looks like come August 15 or so. At that point, it will really matter.

[cycloneye]

Caribbean Sea waters are warming in a steady phase for the past 3 weeks.Of course,the warm waters is not the only factor that causes Cyclone formations,but is one of the most important ones.



http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

[cycloneye]

Less strong high pressure in the past 2 weeks has led to warmer anomalies in the Central Atlantic as you can see in the latest graphic from Reynolds.

[cycloneye]

Notice in the GOM loop that it starts less warm because of invest 90L cloud cover at that time cooling the waters,but after that it warms a lot.

[jinftl]

Bathwater temps appearing over the keys up the west coast to the tampa area

[cycloneye]

Anomalies warmed a tad in the Eastern Atlantic this week.



http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html