WPAC: Ex-KUJIRA (01W)

[wyq614]

Initial position 15.3N 123.6E

EC supports the development of this system for a long time in the South China Sea with some times forecasting it to become a typhoon.

[Chacor]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6N 123.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO REAL, PHILIPPINES.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ANIMATION SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
FLARING ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTLY FORMED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 272128Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A STRONG SHEAR LINE AT THE
SURFACE BUT AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS INDICATES CONVERGENT FLOW WITH
LIMITED CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR THE CENTER. A 272313 SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS
WEAK CONVERGENT BANDING LEADING INTO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO POOR.

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 08N 137E NORTH SLOWLY.

[jpwxman]

94W is a T1.0 according to JTWC and SSD. The CMC is basically ignoring it on the 28/00Z run but the GFS wraps it up pretty good, keeping it more or less stationary for a while then tracking NE next weekend. The latest MTSAT animation indicates it is already moving NE-E, albeit slowly. It still appears to be connected to the boundary with at least some baroclinicity, although the front is beginning to pull out and could leave it behind. Shouldn't be much of a problem for anyone though.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
123.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 122.9E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301717Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE SIBUYAN SEA WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND IMPROVED BANDING (DUE TO
STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW) OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. AN INTENSIVE
ANALYSIS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES
INDICATES 5-10 KNOT WINDS (ASCAT DATA INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES OF 15-20 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CENTER), AND SLP NEAR 1006 MB
WITH NOTEWORTHY 1-2 MB 24-HOUR SLP FALLS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LLCC LOCATED
UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE PRODUCING FAIR OUTFLOW, AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE MAJOR HINDRANCE IS OBVIOUSLY INTERACTION WITH LAND AS THE
LLCC HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION FORMING EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. MODEL
DEVELOPMENT IS EVENLY SPLIT AND THE SYSTEM, IF IT DEVELOPS, IS
LIKELY TO TRACK EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST INTO A HOSTILE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED BANDING AND OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[Chacor]

Probably has the best chance of developing into something.

[Chacor]

TPPN10 PGTW 011206

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (CENTRAL PHILIPPINES)

B. 01/1130Z

C. 12.8N

D. 123.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/0724Z 13.0N 123.8E TRMM
01/0830Z 13.1N 123.8E AMSU
01/0854Z 12.7N 123.9E SSMS
01/0939Z 13.0N 123.9E AMSU
01/1000Z 12.6N 124.2E SSMI


UEHARA

[Chacor]

PAGASA has named this "Dante".

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "DANTE"
Issued at 4:40 p.m., Friday, 01 May 2009 The low pressure area near Albay has developed into a tropical depression and was named "DANTE".
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 80 kms East of Legaspi City
Coordinates: 13.2°N, 124.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Almost stationary
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday afternoon:
100 kms East of Legaspi City
Sunday afternoon:
80 kms East of Legaspi City or
60 kms North of Catarman by
Monday afternoon:
50 kms East of Legaspi City

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

[Chacor]

Officially a TD now.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[HURAKAN]

Looks better than any of the other systems:

[senorpepr]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "DANTE"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 01 May 2009

Tropical Depression "DANTE" has maintained its strength and remained almost stationary.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) in the vicinity of Sorsogon or at
70 kms Southeast of Legaspi City
Coordinates: 12.7°N, 124.2°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center

Movement: Quasi-stationary

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Saturday evening:
in the vicinity of Sorsogon or
60 kms Southeast of Legaspi City

Sunday evening:
50 kms East of Legaspi City

Monday evening:
80 kms East Northeast of Legaspi City


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)

In Luzon:
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Albay
Sorsogon
Catanduanes
Masbate
Burias Island
Southern Quezon

In Visayas:
Northern Samar

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
122.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 123.3E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS REMAINED NEARLY QUASISTATIONARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
LUZON. OBSERVATIONS FROM DAET (RPUD) AND ALABAT (RPXT) SUGGEST
THAT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH, AT OR NEAR 1009 MB,
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS LIMITED BANDING FEATURES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTION IS WEAK.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT LAND
INTERACTION CONTINUES TO THWART FURTHER CONSOLIDATION (AND
POSSIBLY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AS INDICATED BY SKEW-T
SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE AT 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

01/2030 UTC 13.0N 123.9E T2.0/2.0 94W -- West Pacific

[Chacor]

TCFA issued.

WTPN21 PGTW 020130
MSGIN/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 13.0N 123.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 124.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 123.3E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 124.0E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REMAINED
NEARLY QUASISTATIONARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN LUZON. OBSERVED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1005 MB, HOWEVER
THE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE REGION SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS ARE FROM 15
TO 20 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH
WEAK BANDING FEATURES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIF-
ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 030130Z.//

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[theavocado]

It's official, the Western Pacific Season has started. Suprisingly, 94W was able to continue development while over the Philippine Islands. Right now we see a very active reverse oriented monsoon trough. I.E., the trough is oriented SW to NE with a ridge to the south of the trough. 01W is trapped between the ridge to the south and the remnants of the NEerly monsoon flow through the Luzon straight. Look for the flow to drop off in the next 36 to 48 hours as a mid-latitude trough moves through and supresses the flow. We should see the ridge to the south become the dominant steering flow and the system will ride along the baroclinic zone and move to the north east.

I wonder how this will effect 95W?

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.7N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.1N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.1N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 124.3E.
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA INDICATE 30KT
WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN NORTHWESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. TD01W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT TO THE NORTH BEFORE AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL
SUPPRESS THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND INLFUENCES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 020051Z MAY 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 020100).

//
NNNN

[Chacor]

It's official, the Western Pacific Season has started.

Splitting hairs here but there was a TD that appeared in the JMA's high seas bulletin on January 3, which would've been the first 'official' TC of the season. But my point is that sure, the season has started, but don't say it's official, because the JTWC isn't the official WMO warning centre.

[theavocado]

Splitting hairs here but there was a TD that appeared in the JMA's high seas bulletin on January 3, which would've been the first 'official' TC of the season. But my point is that sure, the season has started, but don't say it's official, because the JTWC isn't the official WMO warning centre.

Fair enough, I tend to operate within a certain paradigm.

Historically, I've noticed that JMA is slow to warn on systems in this region and the South China Sea. I wonder if they will pick this one up.