#5 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 28, 2009 9:05 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
138.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 138.0E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
SOUTH OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING. HOWEVER, CONVECTION REMAINS WEAK,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LLCC. A 282050Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN
IMPROVED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AROUND A TIGHTENING LLCC
WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT UNFLAGGED (20 KNOT FLAGGED) WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT YAP IS 1008 MB WITH 1 MB PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND THE WIND IS OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS,
AND UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATOR-
WARD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIF-
ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR DUE TO THE CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, YET WEAK
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION.
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