WPAC: Ex-KUJIRA (01W)

[KWT]

Yep it is rather interesting to see the way this system has been able to continue to develop despite the land its over right now.

[HURAKAN]

02/0830 UTC 13.7N 124.5E T2.5/2.5 94W -- West Pacific

[senorpepr]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIVE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "DANTE"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Saturday, 02 May 2009 Tropical Depression "DANTE" has moved northward while maintaining its strength.

Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 20 kms East of Virac, Catanduanes

Coordinates: 13.8°N, 124.5°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center

Movement: Almost stationary

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Sunday afternoon:
30 kms East of Virac, Catanduanes

Monday afternoon:
40 kms East of Virac, Catanduanes

Tuesday afternoon:
50 kms East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes



Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)

In Luzon:
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Albay
Sorsogon
Catanduanes
Masbate
Burias Island
Southern Quezon

In Visayas:
Northern Samar

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.2N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.8N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.9N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.3N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.6N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 124.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.

[Chacor]

JMA:

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 13.2N 124.5E PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[KWT]

Now forecasted to reach 50kts, wouldn't be too surprising to see this get a little stronger then that but we shall have to see.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[KWT]

Yep convection does seem to be trying to wrap around the center to some extent at the moment.

[P.K.]

TS forecast within 6 hours.

FKPQ30 RJTD 021800
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090502/1800Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: NIL
NR: 1
PSN: N1335 E12410
MOV: SLW
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 03/0000Z N1355 E12420
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 03/0600Z N1400 E12440
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 03/1200Z N1400 E12520
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 03/1800Z N1400 E12600
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20090503/0000Z =

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good.

[HURAKAN]

02/2030 UTC 13.8N 124.3E T3.0/3.0 01W -- West Pacific

[HURAKAN]

Up, up, and away!!

[HurricaneRobert]

That's the best-looking depression ever seen.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 45 knots

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 MAY 2009 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 13:56:15 N Lon : 124:32:31 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 986.9mb/ 55.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.3 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb

Center Temp : -43.5C Cloud Region Temp : -65.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

In fact, this is how a REAL, PROPER Japan Met Agency warning should look:

WTPQ20 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0901 KUJIRA (0901) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 13.9N 124.4E POOR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 14.8N 127.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 050000UTC 16.3N 131.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 060000UTC 18.8N 136.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

WTJP21 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0901 KUJIRA (0901) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 13.9N 124.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 14.8N 127.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 16.3N 131.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 18.8N 136.6E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Chacor]

Looks way stronger than 35 kt. JTWC is up to 45 kt.

[Derek Ortt]

that looks closer to a 55KT cyclone.

As for the "fake" advisory... looks more reworded of the official. Not a great one fake

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 13.9N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.0N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.6N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.3N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.7N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.3N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.5N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Here's the JTWC discussion... I wonder if they'll issue an updated warning or raise its intensity post-fact.

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (ONE) HAS FORMED WITHIN THE REVERSE-ORIENTED
MONSOON TROUGH, AND HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND IS BEGINNING TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. A RECENT 022118Z
SSMIS PASS INDICATES THAT TS 01W HAS SEEN INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AS INDICATED BY THE WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 01W IS LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AT LEAST
28 CELSIUS, PROVIDING AMPLE ENERGY FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT DESPITE
THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING SOUTHEAST OF TS 01W
IS BEGINNING TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE, HOWEVER
CURRENT TRACK SPEED IS STILL VERY SLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM KNES AND
PGTW INDICATING TS 01W IS AT 45 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS.
B. TS 01W WILL SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING IN SPEED AS IT MOVES OUT OF A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND BEGINS TO TRACK AROUND A LOW TO MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEASTWARD OF TS 01W. AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW FOR TS 01W,
ALLOWING TS 01W TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE INCREASING
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL START TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//