WPAC: Ex-KUJIRA (01W)

[Chacor]

JMA held at 60 kt at 03z.

[Derek Ortt]

60KT for 10 minute sustained winds makes sense

that is the equivalent of 70-75KT 1 minute

[RattleMan]

WTPQ20 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0901 KUJIRA (0901) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 16.4N 128.5E GOOD
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 16.9N 132.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 060600UTC 19.2N 136.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 070600UTC 24.2N 141.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


JTWC has upped to 70kt 970 mb in the running best track:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/W ... ckfile.txt

[theavocado]

PGTW (JTWC) Dvorak came in at a 4.5, looks like it's a Typhoon. The diffluent region ahead of the midlatitude trough is really starting to enchance outflow and accelerate the forward motion.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Uh, why was the title of this thread changed to "Severe Tropical Storm Kujira (TY 01W)" when the JMA upgraded to typhoon before JTWC?

[Chacor]

T5.5 at 12z from JMA.

[KWT]

Wow 5.5, thats very impressive indeed, seems to have undergone some pretty rapid strengthening, looks like a cat-3 already doesn't it given the eye and the sturcture!

[Derek Ortt]

looks more like a strong cat 4

ADT also has trouble with small eyes

[KWT]

Wow really that strong Derek?

Got to admit it does look impressive though and as you say its got a tight eye.

[Chacor]

JMA 75 kt.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 MAY 2009 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 16:54:00 N Lon : 129:56:53 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 932.0mb/112.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.9 5.9 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -4.2C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 100 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 129.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.0N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.3N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.5N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.7N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 37.7N 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 130.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 01W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

JWTC now at 100kts which if anything is still a little on the low side, still as long as it keeps up the increase in the Dvorak numbers then it won't be too long before they will have to go even higher for Kujira. Looking very good I have to admit!

[P.K.]

JMA and SAB both at T6.0 now.

[HURAKAN]

Looks small and dangerous!!!

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 MAY 2009 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 17:12:00 N Lon : 130:59:14 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 929.1mb/115.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.9 5.7 5.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF