Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST WED APR 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL LIFT SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION
WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN A FEW MUNICIPALITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO HAVE LIFTED PAST THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DECENT MOISTURE
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION REMAIN...SO WOULD STILL EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GRADUAL
"DRYING" OF THE LOCAL AIR MASS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST IS
INDICATED BUT WITH A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT LINGERING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT
AT LEAST LOCALIZED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VCSH OR TWO ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL
AS TJSJ THROUGH 14Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL THE TAF SITES. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY T-STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...TO BRING TEMPORARY MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJPS...TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ BETWEEN 17-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 11 TO 22 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY HIGHEST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 PM AST THU APR 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...A 1034 MB STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AND
THEN EAST NORTHEAST LATTER ON THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

ON THE OTHER HAND...LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN INDUCED BY A MID TO UPPER TROUGHING IS
PRODUCING MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO TSTORMS NEAR A VORT
MAX NEAR 22N AND 60W. THIS FEATURE HELPED THE LOCALLY STEERING
FLOW TO BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY THAN PREVIOUS ANALYZED.
THEREFORE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SOUTHWEST
COASTAL AREAS SINCE THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS OF 4PM
AST...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED TO THE
NEAR SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BY MID
MORNING...A GROUP OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA STAY RELATIVELY CALM.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THEN SHIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST UNDER A PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY WITH TYPICAL SHOWERS AND
ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR.


&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TIST...
TISX AND TJPS THROUGH 22Z IN PASSING SHRA. DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXPECT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO AFT 17Z...EVENTUALLY BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
TO TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 17-23Z.

MARINE...MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AVERAGE SEAS ARE BETWEEN
4 TO 6 FEET...WITH 3 TO 4 ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SIDE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

[cycloneye]

010940
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST FRI MAY 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...PATCHY MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO STEER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AROUND NOON...WITH VERY MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW...TO HELP LIMIT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND...BUT WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STILL EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND LATER IN THE DAY.

A SECOND RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL...DECIDED TO TREND DOWN
INHERITED POPS AND SHOWER COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...AND
STARTED INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH 16Z...WITH A VCSH OR PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE
VI...TNCM...TKPK...TJSJ AND TJBQ NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY
OPERATION IMPACTS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES AS MORE LIMITED
AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY THAN WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020956
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SAT MAY 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DIGS IN JUST TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN
LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND. A SMALL
PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS THIS MORNING AND THEN
SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SO...DESPITE
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TODAY...STILL EXPECT
MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
THIS MORNING AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES
FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
IMPROVING DYNAMICS. AFTER A BRIEF OVERALL "DRIER" AIR MASS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INCREASE LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY INCREASE FURTHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT YET ETCHED IN STONE...GIVEN THE EXPECTED
COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST...DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WOULD EXPECT
A VERY TYPICAL MAY...MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER EACH DAY AND AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
TISJ...TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ THIS MORNING IN SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS AND THEN ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NEAR TJPS AND
TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030220
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 PM AST SAT MAY 2 2009


.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING WEEK ON TAP FOR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
ALL MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC WILL PRODUCE A
CUTOFF U/L LOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA...PUSHING VERY SLOWLY EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AS LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES STACKED JUST WEST OF THE AREA...WITH NAM12 EVEN
PRODUCING A SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE MAY TIME
DYNAMIC SETUP WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS PROVIDING THE PVA AND
WESTERLY FLOW FOR DECENT SHEAR/VEERING WIND PROFILE. BOTH GFS AND
NAM12 SHOWING UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES PW OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MONDAY. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AT LEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE USVI AND
NORTH/NWRN PR.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SHOWING 70 KNOT UPPER
JET MAX ORIENTED OVER THE REGION...WITH STRONG UPPER VENTING TO
CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEST SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE EARLY TUESDAY
WITH NAM12 PROG SOUNDINGS PRODUCING 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES OVER
100. WHILE THIS MIGHT NOT BE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE MIDWEST...THESE
VALUES ARE HIGH FOR THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE NOTICED THESE TYPES OF
VALUES CREATE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND EVEN SOME WEAKLY ROTATING
CELLS WHICH ARE CAPABLE OF CREATING SOME +30 KT GUSTS. MAIN THREAT
OF COURSE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS AT
LEAST AS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FUTURE RUNS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW...BUT CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK.
TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...UPPER LOW MOVES EAST WITH
SOME WEAK REMNANT UPPER DYNAMICS PRESENT...BUT CONTINUED VERY
MOIST AT THE LOW LEVELS. THE ENTIRE WEEK LOOKS CAPABLE OF RAIN AT
THIS POINT. STAY TUNED.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

Gustywind,lets see what occurs with this scenario of rainy days ahead for us.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030927
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST SUN MAY 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SCENARIO REMAINS QUITE SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS OUTLINED YESTERDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
DIGS IN JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TODAY AND MONDAY AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
PROBABLY BEYOND. IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL NOT BE AS ACTIVE AS
FIRST THOUGHT BUT STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE
LATE TODAY BUT MORE EARNESTLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN IMPROVING DYNAMICS.
EARLIER ANTICIPATED BRIEF OVERALL "DRIER" AIR MASS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED...BUT BARELY
NOTICEABLE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...BEFORE MOISTURE SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY INCREASES LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THEN PROBABLY INCREASES FURTHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL NOT CARVED IN CONCRETE...MODELS HAVE BEEN
QUITE CONSISTENT AND SCENARIO IS VERY PLAUSIBLE. SO...GIVEN THE
EXPECTED COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO OUR WEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST...DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WOULD
EXPECT A VERY TYPICAL MAY...MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER EACH DAY AND AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AS PREVIOUS
SHIFT APTLY NOTED...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP.

GIVEN THIS RATHER ABRUPT POTENTIAL SHIFT TO THE WET SEASON...
LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
CLOSELY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND BETWEEN TJPS AND TJMZ THIS
AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1024 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...SITUATION REMAINS ON TRACK FOR VERY WET WEEK AHEAD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TAKING SHAPE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF SAN
JUAN...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING CUTOFF U/L LOW OVER THE SW
ATLC NEAR 75W 23N. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOISTURE WORKING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL VORT IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENTER THE VI
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALREADY EVIDENT THIS EVENING AS RADAR
SHOWING CELLS UP TO 25K FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS...MOISTURE WILL ORGANIZE AND APPROACH THE
AREA...BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY TOMORROW NIGHT. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALL MODELS SHOWING SATURATED PROFILE WITH OVER 2 INCHES PW IN THE
LAYER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CWA. SHEAR PROFILE ALSO BECOMES
DECENT WITH NAM12 PROG SOUNDING STILL SHOWING 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES OVER 100 (HIGH FOR THE TROPICS). BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON NAM12
AND GFS BOTH GENERATING VERY STRONG QPF FIELDS OVER EASTERN PR AND
THE ENTIRE USVI. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TONIGHT
IN A VERY ISOLATED FASHION...BUT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WENT QUITE STRONG WITH NUMEROUS POPS AND
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE WEEK.

NO RELIEF IN SITE BY MID WEEK AS GFS BECOMES EVEN MORE BULLISH
WITH PW VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES WITH A SOLID SATURATED PROFILE
ALMOST REMINISCENT OF TS SOUNDINGS. WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING AS MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS VERY AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO
REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY BASICALLY LOOKS THE
SAME...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. FLOODING THREAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SINCE SOILS HAVE ALREADY BEEN PRIMED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER PARTS OF THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TISX. SOME
OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL REACH THE EAST
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY MORNING...LEADING TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SHOWERS PASS BY. ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LOCAL MOUNTAIN PEAK OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ
WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

[cycloneye]

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Flash Flood Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC021-051-061-127-135-137-143-041900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0009.090504T1706Z-090504T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
106 PM AST MON MAY 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
TOA ALTA
VEGA ALTA
DORADO
GUAYNABO
SAN JUAN
TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 300 PM AST

* AT 100 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THESE AREAS. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS NOW MOVING ACROSS BAYAMON...GUAYNABO AND
DORADO. THE RIVER LEVEL SENSORS ACROSS THESE AREAS INDICATED THAT
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE AT HIGH LEVELS...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE RAPID RIVER RISES. AT LEAST THROUGH 300 PM AST...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
147 PM AST MON MAY 4 2009

PRC013-017-054-141-042045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0069.090504T1747Z-090504T2045Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLORIDA PR-UTUADO PR-BARCELONETA PR-ARECIBO PR-
147 PM AST MON MAY 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
FLORIDA...UTUADO...BARCELONETA AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 140 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM FLORIDA AND BARCELONETA WESTWARD TO
UTUADO AND ARECIBO. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN AND
AROUND THE MUNICIPALITIES OF FLORIDA AND BARCELONETA. WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA...RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH
445 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 042023
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 PM AST MON MAY 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE ISLANDS OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS....PRODUCING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 2 INCHES. ALSO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THESE SHOWERS MOVED SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AFFECTING MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. AT THIS
MOMENT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. A 70 KNOTS JET
STREAK OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING ON THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ENHANCEMENT. THESE WEATHER FEATURES PROMISE TO
GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. SATURATED SOILS AND INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL INCREASE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS AS FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST AND TISX
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ. LATEST TJSJ 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K
FEET...BECOMING WESTWARD AND STRONGER ABOVE 10K FEET.


&&

.MARINE...NORMAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK BUT MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTIONS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

[cycloneye]

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON AST TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* FROM NOON AST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING

* A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH AN EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WOULD CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
SMALL STREAMS AND LARGER TRIBUTARIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS....MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW NORTH OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS EARLY THIS TUESDAY (09Z)...EVENTUALLY WILL FILL AND
CARRY OVER LATER IN THE WEEK BY THE WESTERLY ALOFT. ALSO...CUT OFF
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT LOW LEVELS...ABUNDANT MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED THIS MORNING BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
EXPERIENCING A LOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA...IN ADDITION
TO THE FUEL THAT WILL BE INJECTED BY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.

AS OF 09Z...BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING BKN TO OVERCAST SKIES...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AUGMENTING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT MAINLY OVER SAINT JOHN
AND TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT MIDNIGHT...ESTIMATED RADAR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER LAND AREAS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AVERAGED BETWEEN 10 TO 12 INCHES. ON THE OTHER HAND...TWO THIRDS OF
PUERTO RICO RECEIVED SMALLER AMOUNTS SUCH AS TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE UNDER RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING ONCE AGAIN TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WET WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THEREFORE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS NEAR SATURATED OR SATURATED
SOILS CAN NOT HOLD RAINFALL RUNOFF.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGES AS FLASH FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS AND FLOOD WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MDT-HVY RA/TSRA MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS ACROSS MAINLAND PR AND MOST OF THE DAY AT USVI
AIRPORTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WATERS. LATER IN THE DAY...OTHER
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WELL.

[Gustywind]

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON AST TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* FROM NOON AST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING

* A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH AN EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WOULD CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
SMALL STREAMS AND LARGER TRIBUTARIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

Good call Cycloneye, hope you're right in your area in Puerto-Rico, but here in Guadeloupe,since 4 days we're under an yellow alert for a risk of strongs showers/scattered thunderstorms...Numerous localized flooding have been observed yesterday that was very rainy grey sad, conditions should very slighlty improve in spite of the rain showers, tstorms predicted by Meteo-France.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST TUE MAY 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EARLY
NEXT WEEK A TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW AND MAKE
A CUT-OFF LOW EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL SINK SOUTH
ON MONDAY AND CAUSE FLOW HERE TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST.

AT MID LEVELS...A REX BLOCK IS CENTERED OVER 58 WEST LONGITUDE
WITH LOWS NEAR 22 NORTH 71 WEST AND 30 NORTH 39 WEST. BOTH LOWS
WILL WEAKEN AND PULL BACK INTO THE PRINCIPAL FLOW...BUT A WEAK
TROUGH WILL PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA ORIENTED
NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST. OVER THE WEEKEND A LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG AND AROUND 55 WEST AND WILL DRIFT EAST NORTHEAST. IT WILL
TRAIL PRESSURE WEAKNESS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A PLUME OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL EASE WEST OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AND LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN HIGH AT LOWER LEVELS AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TAPER
OFF...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH CYCLOGENESIS IS SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND IS DRIFTING WEST NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD LEAVE THE
AREA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
THURSDAY AFTER NEXT AND MAINTAINS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND HAVE
RECENTLY FORMED JUST EAST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPCOMING
RAINS INCLUDING THE GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW...THE RAINFALL MAXIMUM
TOMORROW MORNING AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST 84
HOURS...END OF THE NAM RUN. THUS HAVE LEFT POPS FAIRLY HIGH.
WATCH WAS UPDATED AT 12:34 PM FOR A DELAY CAUSED BY AN UNFORESEEN
DRY SLOT WHICH BROUGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SAN JUAN METRO
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NEVERTHELESS EXPECT CONSIDERABLY WETTER
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IN EASTERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOR THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MAY HAVE FALLEN YESTERDAY...BUT IF CONVECTIVE
BANDS SET UP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MORE HEAVY RAIN EPISODES
COULD OCCUR. WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND MOISTURE
DIMINISHES BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

[cycloneye]

U

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRES NORTH OF
30N WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY MID LVL AIR WAS DETRIMENTAL TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION YDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT AMS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP WITH
PWATS NOW AOA 2.0 INCHES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
U/L PATTERN WILL REMAIN HIGHLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS ERN PR AND THE USVI
OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AND EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT...SHRAS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS OVER ERN THIRD OF PR...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND THE USVI. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHADOW EFFECT SOMEWHERE ON THE
ISLAND AND THIS LOOKS TO BE OVER NW AND WRN PR HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THEY WILL NOT EXPERIENCE ANY FLOODING SO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE RAINFALL CVRG SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GFS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES REMAINING AOA 2.0 INCHES. SO OVERALL...WET
PATTERN IN STORE.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 070813
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 AM AST THU MAY 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRES NORTH OF
30N WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA IN COMBINATION WITH A VERY MOIST AIR WILL RESULT IN
NRMS SHRAS/TSRA TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
PRIMARILY OVR THE WRN HALF OF PR. LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO WORK INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
WITH PLUME OF 2.0+ INCHES PWAT AIR NOW EXTENDING FROM S OF PONCE NW
FOR SVRL HUNDRED MILES. GIVEN THIS WWD SHIFT IN AXIS OF HIGH PW AIR
HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE USVI VIEQUES AND CULEBRA FROM THE FLOOD
WATCH. WAS TEMPTED TO EVEN DROP PORTIONS OF FAR ERN PR AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED WWD SHIFT OF MOISTURE AXIS THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SAT THEN DROP
SHARPLY ON SUN. WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECT A
SLOW DECREASE IN CONVECTION WITH EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEFLY MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR TJPS AS MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THEN...CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...AND AFFECT ONCE AGAIN TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 16Z TO
22Z THIS AFTERNOON. TAF SITES OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS PASSING BY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT
APPROACHING RUNWAY LEVEL TO SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING/TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD
OVER THE WATERS OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MARINE ZONE 710 FOR SEAS UP TO 8 FEET.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 PM AST THU MAY 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RESULT IN INCLEMENT WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WERE REPORTED
ACROSS FEW AREAS BUT MUST OF THESE SHOWERS WERE FROM LIGHT TO
MODERATE. ALSO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVE ON SHORE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN REGION OF PUERTO RICO MAINLY THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF PONCE WEST TO YAUCO.

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE ON INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A DAMP ATMOSPHERE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO THROUGH 8 PM BUT COULD BE EXTENDED.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE THEREFORE EXPECT THE SEAS
HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST FRI MAY 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHFINESS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THEN A MORE ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERWARD...A RIDGING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE WITH US FOR
MUCH OF THE APPROACHING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PROJECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WEAKENS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF BAHAMAS.

AT LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CONTROLLING THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...CREATING A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FOUR TO FIVE DAYS AT
LEAST. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE SAME TRADE WIND FLOW
REGIME.

ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHY CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR DAYS AND DAYS TO COME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FLOW IS STREAMING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DISCUSSION FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH AMERICA. AS APPEARS ON
SATELLITE...THESE CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE LINGERING AROUND
FOR ONE OR TWO DAYS. THEREFORE...VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
GOVERN THE LOCAL AREA FOR THIS PERIOD.

AT LOW LEVELS...A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
GROUP OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SMALL BREAK PROJECTED FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTERWARD...A WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITY SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AND OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN COASTS AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE EVENING...ARRIVE...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE CALMING DOWN. HOWEVER...WITH THIS AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY...SOME MINOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SOME
AREAS. ALSO...THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES STILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THOSE
AREAS AFFECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK AS SOILS ARE NEAR SATURATION STAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM AND
TKPK AT LEAST THROUGH 10Z DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OTHER THE LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 4-10 KFT...AND WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. HOWEVER...EXPECT INTERMITTENT
MVFR IN PASSING SHRA AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z ENROUTE BTWN EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SFC WNDS
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-20KTS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH MORE
SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE VI 17-22Z. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS IN THE VCNTY OF TJMZ AND TJPS
AFTER 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...WIND DRIVEN WAVES FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DOMINATING
THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE.

[cycloneye]

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 090934
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST SAT MAY 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. FEW SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE
U.S.V.I. FEW SHOWERS ALSO BRUSHED THE NORTHERN COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO...BUT IN GENERAL THE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING WERE MINIMAL. THE
RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS AFTERNOON RAINFALL MAINTAINED THE RIO GRANDE
DE MANATI FROM CIALES TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
OVERNIGHT.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK
AND HUMID SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL INDUCE FAIRLY ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL COMPLETE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING...THE GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES FOR TODAY AND
UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 1.5 BY LATE MONDAY.
THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED SOILS
AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE FA.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN...APPARENTLY A SURFACE REFLECTION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY THAT TIME THE PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TO MORE THAN 2.0 INCHES...GOOD INDICATIONS THAT THE
CONVECTIVE SEASON WILL CONTINUE WITH US FOR A WHILE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH SCT TO BKN
CIGS BETWEEN 5-100 KFT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND A PASSING
SHRA POSSIBLE ENROUTE BETWEEN THE U.S.V.I AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
THE PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
MVFR AT AND AROUND...TISX...TIST...TJSJ...TNCM AND TKPK AT LEAST
THROUGH 12Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15KTS AT ALL
TAF SITES...WITH A SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS PR AND THE VI AFTER 16Z. IN
ADDITION...A TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR AS WELL
AS IN THE VCTY OF TJMZ AND TJPS FM 18-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THERE ARE
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST SUN MAY 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS
WELL ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.V.I. WHILE OTHERS BRUSHED
THE NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...IN
GENERAL THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS
MORNING WERE MINIMAL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH ECHO TOPS UP TO 40K
FEET PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS.
FAIRLY ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO
INDUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES DUE TO
SATURATED SOILS IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

A SLIGHT DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE BOTH DAYS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO
INDUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE
FA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING...THE GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES FOR
TODAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...INCREASING AGAIN TO MORE THAN 2 INCHES BY THE MID OF THE
WEEK AND UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOSTLY BTWN 025-100
KFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z. EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP AND STREAM ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS JUST OFF THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...THE NORTHERN U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS BETWEEN STX AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO. WHILE MOST OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES WILL BE MOSTLY VFR...EXPECT THE PASSING SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE INTMT MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TISX...TIST...TJSJ...
TJNR AND TJBQ THROUGH 12Z. THEREAFTER BTWN 10/16-22Z...MORE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO AND PLACE
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES. MOUNTAIN PEAK OBSCURATIONS
CAN THEREFORE BE EXPECTED...WITH TJMZ AND TJBQ HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDS DURG THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.