Unsetteled weather in Eastern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Its going to be a wet week in the Eastern Caribbean islands as a combination of upper and surface troughs are affecting the area.On Monday,there were some flood watches and warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S / British Virgin Islands.Those members who live in the islands can come here to post about how are things evolving in the islands.Nothing to worrie about in terms of Tropical Development.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE ISLANDS OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS....PRODUCING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 2 INCHES. ALSO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THESE SHOWERS MOVED SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AFFECTING MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. AT THIS
MOMENT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. A 70 KNOTS JET
STREAK OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING ON THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ENHANCEMENT. THESE WEATHER FEATURES PROMISE TO
GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. SATURATED SOILS AND INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL INCREASE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS AS FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK.

[cycloneye]

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON AST TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* FROM NOON AST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING

* A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH AN EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WOULD CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
SMALL STREAMS AND LARGER TRIBUTARIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS....MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW NORTH OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS EARLY THIS TUESDAY (09Z)...EVENTUALLY WILL FILL AND
CARRY OVER LATER IN THE WEEK BY THE WESTERLY ALOFT. ALSO...CUT OFF
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT LOW LEVELS...ABUNDANT MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED THIS MORNING BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
EXPERIENCING A LOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA...IN ADDITION
TO THE FUEL THAT WILL BE INJECTED BY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.

AS OF 09Z...BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING BKN TO OVERCAST SKIES...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AUGMENTING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT MAINLY OVER SAINT JOHN
AND TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT MIDNIGHT...ESTIMATED RADAR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER LAND AREAS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AVERAGED BETWEEN 10 TO 12 INCHES. ON THE OTHER HAND...TWO THIRDS OF
PUERTO RICO RECEIVED SMALLER AMOUNTS SUCH AS TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE UNDER RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING ONCE AGAIN TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WET WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THEREFORE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS NEAR SATURATED OR SATURATED
SOILS CAN NOT HOLD RAINFALL RUNOFF.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGES AS FLASH FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS AND FLOOD WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MDT-HVY RA/TSRA MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS ACROSS MAINLAND PR AND MOST OF THE DAY AT USVI
AIRPORTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WATERS. LATER IN THE DAY...OTHER
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WELL.

[cycloneye]

This is the Martinique radar.



http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[HUC]

A lot of rain in Guadeloupe,yersteday night,but mostly in Martinica,where some 300 mm felt in some places....2 death,and a lot of mudslides in this territory,rivers still out of bank!!!!
It seems that in a moist and instabl air mass that cover the area since saturday,a narrow streamer stall over the NE tip of that island (Martinica ),giving rise to that rather strong amount....

[cycloneye]

A lot of rain in Guadeloupe,yersteday night,but mostly in Martinica,where some 300 mm felt in some places....2 death,and a lot of mudslides in this territory,rivers still out of bank!!!!
It seems that in a moist and instabl air mass that cover the area since saturday,a narrow streamer stall over the NE tip of that island (Martinica ),giving rise to that rather strong amount....

Oh boy,I didnt knew that it was that bad over there.If you have more information about whats going in Martinique,post it here.

[cycloneye]

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND
VICINITY...SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR.

* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL AID A SLOWLY
MOVING SURFACE TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE CROSSING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG WITH IT AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT WESTERN PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN
REGIONS AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING. DURING THE ENTIRE 28-HOUR PERIOD...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 4
INCHES ON THE COAST AND COASTAL PLAINS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

* RAINFALL WILL RAISE MANY STREAMS AND LOCAL RIVERS TO BANK FULL
AND BEYOND IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE RAINFALL IS HEAVIEST AND
MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL THAT
HAS ALREADY FALLEN...MAKING SOILS SATURATED AND PRONE TO
SLIPPAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD AVOID DRIVING DURING THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO AVOID
BEING CAUGHT IN DEBRIS FLOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

[Gustywind]

A lot of rain in Guadeloupe,yersteday night,but mostly in Martinica,where some 300 mm felt in some places....2 death,and a lot of mudslides in this territory,rivers still out of bank!!!!
It seems that in a moist and instabl air mass that cover the area since saturday,a narrow streamer stall over the NE tip of that island (Martinica ),giving rise to that rather strong amount....

Oh boy,I didnt knew that it was that bad over there.If you have more information about whats going in Martinique,post it here.

Absolutely you're right HUC and Le Moule in Guadeloupe experienced 100 mm and Marie-Galante 128,6mm juicy amounts.. but for Martinica it's pretty worrying here is the latest PRECIPITATIONS (rain from yesterday 8am during the latest 24H)
Le Lamentin : 89 mm Fond-St-Denis : 76 mm Vauclin : 24 mm
Robert : 310 mm Fort-de-France : 112 mm

[gatorcane]

Hi cycloneye and Gustywind, can you send some of that rain up to Florida?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST TUE MAY 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EARLY
NEXT WEEK A TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW AND MAKE
A CUT-OFF LOW EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL SINK SOUTH
ON MONDAY AND CAUSE FLOW HERE TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST.

AT MID LEVELS...A REX BLOCK IS CENTERED OVER 58 WEST LONGITUDE
WITH LOWS NEAR 22 NORTH 71 WEST AND 30 NORTH 39 WEST. BOTH LOWS
WILL WEAKEN AND PULL BACK INTO THE PRINCIPAL FLOW...BUT A WEAK
TROUGH WILL PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA ORIENTED
NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST. OVER THE WEEKEND A LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG AND AROUND 55 WEST AND WILL DRIFT EAST NORTHEAST. IT WILL
TRAIL PRESSURE WEAKNESS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A PLUME OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL EASE WEST OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AND LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN HIGH AT LOWER LEVELS AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TAPER
OFF...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH CYCLOGENESIS IS SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND IS DRIFTING WEST NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD LEAVE THE
AREA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
THURSDAY AFTER NEXT AND MAINTAINS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND HAVE
RECENTLY FORMED JUST EAST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPCOMING
RAINS INCLUDING THE GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW...THE RAINFALL MAXIMUM
TOMORROW MORNING AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST 84
HOURS...END OF THE NAM RUN. THUS HAVE LEFT POPS FAIRLY HIGH.
WATCH WAS UPDATED AT 12:34 PM FOR A DELAY CAUSED BY AN UNFORESEEN
DRY SLOT WHICH BROUGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SAN JUAN METRO
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NEVERTHELESS EXPECT CONSIDERABLY WETTER
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IN EASTERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOR THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MAY HAVE FALLEN YESTERDAY...BUT IF CONVECTIVE
BANDS SET UP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MORE HEAVY RAIN EPISODES
COULD OCCUR. WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND MOISTURE
DIMINISHES BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

[artist]

Hi cycloneye and Gustywind, can you send some of that rain up to Florida?

you beat me to it!

guys, stay safe!

[HUC]

HOW MANY RAIN DO YOU NEED?GATORCANE,,

[gatorcane]

HOW MANY RAIN DO YOU NEED?GATORCANE,,

lol -- just send all of it up this way if you can

[HUC]

i'ill try;look at your rain gauge around 1am,to night...

[Gustywind]

Those guys are pretty funny HUC, let's take it easy but i have a little wink for our neighbours from Martinica . 3 deads it's too much on a island!
For the rain do you want it in gust or in sustained winds Gatorcane and Artist or in a Gustywind in your showers squall line dreams?

[artist]

Those guys are pretty funny HUC, let's take it easy but i have a little wink for our neighbours from Martinica . 3 deads it's too much on a island!
For the rain do you want it in gust or in sustained winds Gatorcane and Artist or in a Gustywind in your showers squall line dreams?

hey gusty - "gust" would be perfect. I was thinking if you all tried reall hard to blow at the same time maybe we could get a gust of it!

[cycloneye]

Pueerto Rico is on the center of the action today as the mecanisms to ignite bad weather are there.Woke up with a thunderstorm.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRES NORTH OF
30N WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY MID LVL AIR WAS DETRIMENTAL TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION YDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT AMS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP WITH
PWATS NOW AOA 2.0 INCHES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
U/L PATTERN WILL REMAIN HIGHLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS ERN PR AND THE USVI
OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AND EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT...SHRAS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS OVER ERN THIRD OF PR...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND THE USVI. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHADOW EFFECT SOMEWHERE ON THE
ISLAND AND THIS LOOKS TO BE OVER NW AND WRN PR HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THEY WILL NOT EXPERIENCE ANY FLOODING SO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE RAINFALL CVRG SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GFS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES REMAINING AOA 2.0 INCHES. SO OVERALL...WET
PATTERN IN STORE.

[Gustywind]

Pueerto Rico is on the center of the action today as the mecanisms to ignite bad weather are there.Woke up with a thunderstorm.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRES NORTH OF
30N WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY MID LVL AIR WAS DETRIMENTAL TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION YDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT AMS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP WITH
PWATS NOW AOA 2.0 INCHES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
U/L PATTERN WILL REMAIN HIGHLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS ERN PR AND THE USVI
OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AND EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT...SHRAS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS OVER ERN THIRD OF PR...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND THE USVI. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHADOW EFFECT SOMEWHERE ON THE
ISLAND AND THIS LOOKS TO BE OVER NW AND WRN PR HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THEY WILL NOT EXPERIENCE ANY FLOODING SO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE RAINFALL CVRG SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GFS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES REMAINING AOA 2.0 INCHES. SO OVERALL...WET
PATTERN IN STORE.

Waouw, a tstorm activity already, one word be safe Luis!!!

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
822 AM AST WED MAY 6 2009

PRC009-035-043-057-059-075-111-113-123-133-149-061515-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0074.090506T1222Z-090506T1515Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-AIBONITO PR-VILLALBA PR-GUAYANILLA PR-GUAYAMA PR-
JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-SALINAS PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-PENUELAS PR-
822 AM AST WED MAY 6 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...CAYEY...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...GUAYANILLA...GUAYAMA...
JUANA DIAZ...PONCE...SALINAS...SANTA ISABEL AND PENUELAS

* UNTIL 1115 AM AST

* AT 818 AM AST NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM GUAYAMA WESTWARD TO PENUELAS. WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA...RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH 1115
AM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE
AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1791 6668 1795 6682 1812 6679 1813 6610
1791 6607 1789 6614

$$

CASTRO

[expat2carib]

Here on Dominica we had rain for 3 days now. From time to time torrential rain. I had some problems with my roof almost collapsing because of enormous water masses building up.

I unstopped the gutters and thousands of gallons of water were released'

The house was a mess though . The water was everywhere because the water was forced under the galvanized and found a weak structure to come in.

A good reminder of getting ready for the season.

The island is coping OK without any major flooding. I didn't hear of any accidents.